Listen to our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode 'Uncovering opportunities with investment trusts' with The AIC's Richard Stone here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
You are welcome Vas.
It will be welcome, when we get official confirmation on how CyanConnode has performed contractually and financially through the 2023/2024 financial year.
And any other news that may also be of interest, of course.
LTI.
This is where it starts getting into scam territory for me.
Thanks LT.
Yes, i was being a bit conservative along with my usual vagueness with numbers.
I am wondering as we start the new financial year what with DGVCL at approx 100,000 units being installed a month , the Montecarlo one million unit order and other known awards , what kind of revenue we can expect each month ....the Montecarlo award started in Jan 24, for a total of 27 month - so 24 months left - with a million units to be installed , so that's approx. another 40,000 units a month so these two awards alone give approx. a £million or more a month sales going forward into 24/25
What about the other awards.....and then lastly the awards that we do not know about yet, and may now contribute to this years sales. GL Vas
Hello Vas,
In reply to your 08:51 post this morning, genrally, it will be interesting to see if and when the existing Strategic Framework Agreement with IntelliSmart is extended or re-negotiated in the near future. CyanConnode must be coming near to that stage at some point, especially with all the contract Awards that have gone through over the last few month's or so, that need to be distributed to sub-contractors.
It would also be an advantage I feel, to CyanConnode in particular and other sub-contractors individually, if this type of Framework Agreement could be incorpotated with companies in general, in connection to the smart meter roll-out. That way individual companies will have time to get prepared and organised, with their individual sub-contractors.
Logistically, it must be a very complex programme to put together and to co-ordinate.
Good Luck,
LTI.
Good morning Vas and all,
Thank you for sharing the information on DGVCL, it is appreciated.
I think for 100,000 Omnimesh modules that you mentioned, CyanConnode would receive more than £500k. That equates to £5 per unit, if that is what you are indicating. I estimate the value per Omnimesh module to be more than that.
But it may depend on the specification that the client wants - the terrain would need to be taken into account, when tendering for each contract and other such parameters.
A few years ago, I seem to remember the smart meter contract being negotiated seperately from the Support and Maintenance contract. Recent smart meter awards to CyanConnode have the Support and Maintenance contract as part of the overall order value - if it is given
The recent order from MonteCarlo, from January 2024, is one such case. The number of Omnimesh modules was made public, along with other contract details, the overall value was not. Makes it more difficult for the competitors to break-down the individual prices of each segment of the contract.
I hope this helps.
Good Luck Vas and all.
LTI.
Morning ALL,
Am i right in thinking that conservatively a 100k installation rate per month by DGVCL would generate approx. £500 K plus a month for the next 18 months, if Cyan continue to be successful in DGVCL ?
If so , its not hard to imagine once the installations begin in earnest, and assuming Cyan have their share of awards , how these numbers will very quickly transform the revenues of CC. Just need to wait for the installations to be awarded and started.
Just realised the information i posted in last post is is from the RNS from last Oct 23, a framework offtake order from IntelliSmart for 300,000 units , awarded to Cyan which stated that
"The supply of Omnimesh Modules for this project is expected to commence during Q4 FY 2024"
Apologies , yet good news that this is now starting and will be a useful contribution to revenues for 24/25 an beyond.
GL Vas
"DGVCL Ushers in New Era with Prepaid Smart Meters for Surat. On April 8th, DGVCL will embark on this journey by installing smart meters in Suman Shail Apartment located in the Piplod Division. This pilot project paves the way for a large-scale rollout across the city, with an estimated 17 lakh meters planned for installation over the next 18 months...........The initial phase focuses on seven divisions within Surat circle: Surat City, Surat Rural, Piplod, Rander, Surat Industrial, Vyara, and Kamrej. DGVCL plans to install 3,000 meters daily, translating to approximately 90,000 to 1 lakh meters installed per month."
If these meters contain Cyan technology - then the question is will trigger another subsequent off take order from IntelliSmart !
https://english.loktej.com/article/11046/dgvcl-ushers-in-new-era-with-prepaid-smart-meters-for#google_vignette
"With Advanced Metering Infrastructure Service Providers ( AMISP's ) vying for contracts, a concerning trend towards priortizing lower upfront costs over quality and long-term reliability has surfaced."
He needs to explain to Cyan shareholders what this statement of his is based on.
Where is his evidence that this trend has surfaced?
Good afternoon Vas,
A very good report Vas, I feel, with some interesting information included.
Good Luck Vas and all.
LTI.
........ sets out very well I feel, the negotiation stance that CyanConnode have taken and the consequences for short-term gains over long-term objectives.
From the report:-
" In India's ambitious journey towards revolutionizing its energy sector, particularly under initiatives like the Revamped Distribution Sector Scheme ( #RDSS ), the selection of technology for smart metering infrastructure emerges as a pivitol decision. With Advanced Metering Infrastructure Service Providers ( AMISP's ) vying for contracts, a concerning trend towards priortizing lower upfront costs over quality and long-term reliability has surfaced. This short-term gain philosophy over-looks the potential long-term repercussions, including higher operational costs, reduced system reliability and failure to meet stringent Service Level Agreements ( SLA's ).
" As India stands at this crucial juncture, understanding the technological foundations and their implications for the nation's energy future is vital. Among the miriad of options, RF technology emergies not just as a solution, but as a strategic advantage in addressing the unique challenges posed by India's vast and varied landscape."
At the moment, CyanConnode are reported to be involved in between 20% and 25% of the installed smart electric meter base in India, at the moment. Which means dicisions are being made on between 75% and 80% of smart meters that do not involve or include CyanConnode.
The report is very clear to me. But others may have a different point of view and need further explanation.
Good Luck all.
LTI.
Hi Tony. I doubt JC has a clue and I hope he's not going to release anything or we could be back to 2p lol. The old election excuse has been used numerous times as has the "inflection point" Once more I will suggest the words lifestyle...company ....JC . Join the dots. Have a good weekend.
Hello ITT/jake. For a small company this is decidedly a cash intense industry. There definitely needs to be a lot more information coming forward from P.R. I understand the need for secrecy in early stages but if we are supposed to be a leader then it is necessary to show we are. To say we have achieved good sized contracts with various new and existing Utilities would be a good starting point. If India has ground to a halt for elections then say so. When companies get bigger you expect a rise and fall of SP with profit taking. In our case the BOD does not shore up falls quick enough with information, this leads to speculation. We got a good price for our Modules from Genus in the past and good turnover, so what is situation now, we need graphs or Bench output shown to stabilise SP. Seeing current situation and thinking we will still get good results I should imagine JC is putting together a presentation to show work in the field and a map of where CC is standing, it is election time. DYOR
Me as well ITT. He won't though as history has shown. Any other CEO would no doubt attempted to stop the slide , why hasn't JC? Like you I have my suspicions.
The company's executive chairman (JC) needs to explain to shareholders why he released his SP damaging article on 15/03/2024. Since its release (3 weeks ago), the SP has dropped 25% (yes, 25%).
I have my suspicions as to why he did but will keep them to myself.
Why would I pull out when it owes me nothing Tony? The fact still remains the BOD talkSs a good game,however as I have said many times ...talk is cheap, money buys houses. You may also be surprised to know I have arrived at my risk averse position without the benefit of free shares ,share options, inflated pay etc for non delivery for heaven know how many years.
Jake, there may be some that are closer than others. However I think the problem that some see is that there is still an element of knocking, wny not just pull out. Most would if they did not see a good outcome. Instead you tell us you have played the game so cool that you have never made a loss with CC. Most of us over time have struck bottom but then average out on a severe Bottom buy. JC made a bold move when he went from semi-conductors and possibly regretted it, however as arduous as this waiting game has been we are still more than likely on the brink of profit. May be an idea for you to pull out now, still a gamble although good, 50p plus or another long haul. Apart from maybe JC making in my opinion a misguided comment reCellular I feel not much has changed. DYOR
Amazing how long some have been banging on about this coming good..... next month.... next quarter.... next year...... absolutely laughable....... then again a broken clock is right twice a day.
I have wondered for some time whether there are particular posters on here (and the other board) that are involved with CC closer than we may think. The rose tints are becoming increasingly brighter.
ITT, I thought we were talking Zeus up a few months back. I agree that CC should also consider additional listing, say India where Smart probably gets more attention. I think the next 2 quarters will see results. RF is predominant in some areas, not in others, and mixed in others. I still believe we will get 20-25% of overally 250m. So depending on earnings could get £600m to 1bn gross. Even with the increase of shares I should have thought an SP of 200p. DYOR
Zeus don't know what's going to happen over the coming quarters. Their GUESS is no better than anyone else's.
All we know for sure is that Heather needs to get the accounts for the Y/E 31/03/2024 prepared and released by 30/09/2024.
I'm anticipating another six months of nothing on the news front. Let's see who gets closest - Zeus or me.
Sorry, should read " ...... over the coming quarters ..... "
LTI.
Good morning Vas,
In reply to your post on 3rd April 2024, at 21:31, I believe you are correct, in my opinion, in your observation about the " ..... lack of smart meter news ..... " and " If I am right , this is going to reduce news-flow to Cyan and other Indian sub-contractors and from Cyan to us also."
I would say that is a reasonable position to have.
But I am encouragingly optimistic that as pointed out in the latest Zeus report, published on 2nd April, 2024, that " We expect these large numbers of sanctioned and awarded meters to lead to significant sub-contracts for CyanConnode over the coming quarters, supported by its high win-ratio in India of approximately 25% by volume."
So maybe not long to wait " .... over the coming quartes ........ "
Good Luck Vas and all.
LTI.
It'll 'rocket' 10 or 15%, then settle below the news release SP when the market realise JC has no idea what the company have said and corrective RNS's are issued. In between there will be multiple 'well done to all concerned' posts on here, which always adds the the amusement.
Oh, that's OK then.
..this will rocket on news.