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The company's executive chairman (JC) needs to explain to shareholders why he released his SP damaging article on 15/03/2024. Since its release (3 weeks ago), the SP has dropped 25% (yes, 25%).
I have my suspicions as to why he did but will keep them to myself.
Me as well ITT. He won't though as history has shown. Any other CEO would no doubt attempted to stop the slide , why hasn't JC? Like you I have my suspicions.
Hello ITT/jake. For a small company this is decidedly a cash intense industry. There definitely needs to be a lot more information coming forward from P.R. I understand the need for secrecy in early stages but if we are supposed to be a leader then it is necessary to show we are. To say we have achieved good sized contracts with various new and existing Utilities would be a good starting point. If India has ground to a halt for elections then say so. When companies get bigger you expect a rise and fall of SP with profit taking. In our case the BOD does not shore up falls quick enough with information, this leads to speculation. We got a good price for our Modules from Genus in the past and good turnover, so what is situation now, we need graphs or Bench output shown to stabilise SP. Seeing current situation and thinking we will still get good results I should imagine JC is putting together a presentation to show work in the field and a map of where CC is standing, it is election time. DYOR
Hi Tony. I doubt JC has a clue and I hope he's not going to release anything or we could be back to 2p lol. The old election excuse has been used numerous times as has the "inflection point" Once more I will suggest the words lifestyle...company ....JC . Join the dots. Have a good weekend.
........ sets out very well I feel, the negotiation stance that CyanConnode have taken and the consequences for short-term gains over long-term objectives.
From the report:-
" In India's ambitious journey towards revolutionizing its energy sector, particularly under initiatives like the Revamped Distribution Sector Scheme ( #RDSS ), the selection of technology for smart metering infrastructure emerges as a pivitol decision. With Advanced Metering Infrastructure Service Providers ( AMISP's ) vying for contracts, a concerning trend towards priortizing lower upfront costs over quality and long-term reliability has surfaced. This short-term gain philosophy over-looks the potential long-term repercussions, including higher operational costs, reduced system reliability and failure to meet stringent Service Level Agreements ( SLA's ).
" As India stands at this crucial juncture, understanding the technological foundations and their implications for the nation's energy future is vital. Among the miriad of options, RF technology emergies not just as a solution, but as a strategic advantage in addressing the unique challenges posed by India's vast and varied landscape."
At the moment, CyanConnode are reported to be involved in between 20% and 25% of the installed smart electric meter base in India, at the moment. Which means dicisions are being made on between 75% and 80% of smart meters that do not involve or include CyanConnode.
The report is very clear to me. But others may have a different point of view and need further explanation.
Good Luck all.
LTI.
....... another paragraph goes into some more detail of the politics ( my words ) involved. And as we know, there will be a certain amount of politics in all contract negotions.
" In a era where AMISPs might be tempted by lower upfront costs, the choice of CyanConnode's Omnimesh solution under-scores the importance of considering the broader implications of technology deployments. The real value lies not just in meeting the immediate specifications, but in ensuring that the technology can deliver consistant performance and reliability over the life-span of the project. The tendency to over-look these critical factors for short-term gains, could lead to significant long-term losses, undermining the goals of the smart metering programme and the broader vision for India's energy sector. This perspective is critical for the smart metering programme, which aims not only to modernizeIndia's energy infrastructure, but to do so in a way that is sustainable, efficient and capable of supporting the country's growth, over the coming decades."
I seem to remember during 2017/2018, India were " ...... tempted by lower upfront costs ..... " when they tabled the 3 multi-million electric smart meter tenders, for a total of circa 20m smart meters, for the preferred GPRS solution at the time, which didn't progress as well as it was originally thought.
It would seem that John, Heather and CyanConnode India are still fighting that concept of short-term gains and low upfront costs.
Good Luck all.
LTI.
...... another paragraph compares GPRS and RF technologies:-
" Against the back-drop of India's vast and varied geography, the quest for a communication technology that ensures reliability and efficiency across both densely populated cities and remote rural areas, is paramount. RF technology, with its proven ability to provide consistent connectivity, stands out as an optimal choice. Its resilience and flexibility make it particularly suited to Indias environmental and infrastructural diversity, establishing it as the preferred foundation for smart meter initiatives. Unlike GPRS, which can suffer from network congestion, coverage issues and frequent changes and overhaul of technology, RF technology offers consistent connectivity, essential for the real-time data transmission required in smart metering.applications. The superiority of RF lies not just in over-coming geographical hurdles, but also in its adaptability to India's dynamic environmental conditions, making it an ideal candidate for the foundational technology behind smart metering solutions."
A fairly comprehensive comparison between GPRS and RF solutions/technologies, for those that were not already aware.
LTI.
We don't need the whole effing article copied & pasted again, we can read.
It's the bit that says "there is a concerning trend towards priortizing lower upfront costs over quality and long-term reliability has surfaced" that is being discussed.
Has that trend actually surfaced or not?
If so, let's have an actual example.
If not, why is he calling it a trend?
ITT, don't get so excited. Orginally CC were anticipating only a proportion of the Indian market for RF and only a proportion of that for CC. Various CC pilots have done very well and the possibilities of a larger market % grew. Cellular looked predominate and CC developed Its own Cellular (whats more a private circuit) more or less guaranteeing an SLA and sercurity. I would now be pleased if JC gave us a lecture on the difference in pricing of the 2 systems. At least we would know CC's concerns and if we could compete at a lower margin. DYOR
I will be sending an email tomorrow for clarification ITT.
I for one have had enough of this nonsense . You cannot make the type of statement JC has and affect a 25% drop in share price without clarification. Either its his opinion or fact backed by evidence. Either way he needs to clear it up. Won't hold my breath for a response though.
A CSR mission ......a core component of a company's value and reputation......shows the company is making money and creating the right footprints ........
Hi tonyj
I'm not getting excited - far from it.
It's frustrating being a Cyan shareholder on here, attempting to make valid points now and again, only to be drowned out by a couple of long-term scammers (who I don't believe hold a single share between them).
Morning ITT. Yes I would like to know the bottom line on JC's comment. I think that once these new contracts are issued, assuming we are still possibly getting at least 20% of market, the SP will bounce. Clarity has always been saught with secrecy being the counter argument. At least in coming months we will hopefully know our destiny. There is a lot of work out there so still very good possibilities. DYOR
Morning ITT.
On a tangent how about consolidation? Has happened before.
I have again had a look today and can find nothing to support JCs comment "there is a concerning trend towards priortizing lower upfront costs over quality and long-term reliability has surfaced" You would have thought at the very least something would have been in the many research documents, it's not something that has just popped up overnight. Interestingly the word prioritizing is the US spelling, has JC just copied and pasted something from someone else's article relating to another part of the world and added to his India article?
I wait with bated breath a response from the company to see this cleared up.
Hi jakeandelwood
Funny you say that re US spelling because I thought the same.
Thanks for writing to the company.
Hi ITT. Tried once before but never had the courtesy of a response. At the end of the day it's my hard earned cash that's invested so would expect an answer to a simple yes or no question, that's not commercially sensitive and can be in the public domain. Let's see.
Hi tonyj
There is definitely a great opportunity in India for Cyan - that's why most of us are here.
If Cyan wins a significant contract, I would like to see the news reported in a UK newspaper (or two), Investor's Chronicle, Shares Magazine etc and not just in some Indian rag mag. Is that too much to ask?
When was the last time, Cyan got a mention in the Investor's Chronicle? I'll tell you, it was years & years ago.
GL
ITT
Good morning tonyj and all,
I can guess who the poster at 08:12 this morning, is referring to, from the terminology used, but I wonder who they think the other one is? And using their hard-done-by angle, never looks good, in my opinion.
If you ask questions, you should be prepared to accept replies. Obviously that is not the case on this bb, with some posters.
Take care tonyj and watch out for the scammers.
LTI.
Morning LTI. What are your views regarding JCs comment? "there is a concerning trend towards priortizing lower upfront costs over quality and long-term reliability has surfaced"
Do you believe this has been the cause of the continuing drop in SP?
Good morning,
I have given my opinion on the report released on 15/03/2024, over the last three weeks or so and concentrated my replies on the overall report, while not forensically analyzing 4 specific lines in isolation, as has been happening on this particular bb.
As well as providing the original script, I also provided some comments of my own, much to the disapproval of some on this bb, it would seem.
But I did answer the particular question that you asked, to my satisfaction, over the last 3 weeks. But I won't repeat it as it may upset the neighbours.
But there are always politics involved in contract negotiations. I doubt the smart meter tenders/contracts are any different. So as far as I am concerned, as an investor, it was good to be made aware of this particular report. In my opinion.
I think this report is very honest in its content. It sets out the pros and cons of two paticular solutions, those being GPRS and RF and also highlights that " ..... not all RF solutions are created equal. The success of such projects hinges not just on the technology itself, but on the quality and reliability of the implementation."
To finish off, I do not believe this report is responsible for the share price drop. Others may have a different opinion. Lack of news has definitely come into play. Share-holders move their money around at this time of year, for different reasons, or take their money/profits out, for deposites for holidays, or other such requirements.
This may help, it may not.
LTI.
Strong buy but that depends on next 2 quarters as I see it. My opinion is that JC, rightly so, is hedging his bets, before the mud slinging if all does not work out. Right at the beginning India was appointing companies who were not even in the industry, probably thinking as Colour said, the 'villages' only wanted a light bulb. Low and behold they have seen the world on the Internet and want things like IoT. Everything had to be rethought, along comes new finance ideas but these Finance Houses, being money mad, are looking short term so it all starts again. This is where CC India starts doing PR in the right places, they've got enough staff. Set concerns in minds, what if after 5 years or so the system starts to fail and has to start all over again, happened before. CC is fast installation, reliable, excellent SLA, supplyimg prestigious Genus and Intellismart. CC system secures India's future expansion. DYOR
Thanks LTI. I agree lack of news is probably part of the issue. I do however believe the naievity shown by the CEO to make the sort of statement I highlighted is exceptionally poor, particularly if it turns out to be his own opinion.
Hi jakeandelwood
I'm assuming that when people are saying 'lack of news', they are actually meaning a dearth of new contracts?
GL
ITT
I disagree with your point about " ..... naievity ..... " As a share-holder I am now aware, through this report, more of what is involved and what CyanConnode are still battling with. I am encouraged that the Company had the confidence to make this public.
Not naievity at all. But a good understanding of the smart meter business that CyanConnode are in and have been for a number of years. In my opinion. Others may see it differently.
And there are a few on this bb, that do see it differently. As I find out, quite regularly.
LTI.
Hi ITT, LTI.
Most CEOs would not allow the SP to drift as has happened with CC on many occasions over the years. It's the responsibiity of any well paid CEO to manage and deliver the best outcome for all shareholders, not sit on their hands and do nothing. That includes updating the market where possible, promoting the company where not possible.I accept however some things are out of his control.
Besides the many appeareances by JC and his video interviews, often prior to a cash call, when is he visible? Frankly the silence is appalling, particularly after his last promise to keep shareholders updated.
LTI, If this is just JCs opinion and nothing evidenced by research he needs to clarify his point. Failing to do so will only lead to conspiracy theories, losing the trust of the market and potential investment from new investors, so yes, given the statement he made, the affect on the share price since he released it and the current information or lack of, regarding his statement, yes I do believe he was naive. Perhaps it was his Gerald Ratner moment. Either way he needs to clear it up. I am very much looking forward to the next piece of significant news though.