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Hi Breq,
Are these kind of issues fixable?
All we know from the RNS is:
Things are taking a long time. Still testing TO-14. TO-13 testing not started yet.
TO-14 is probably a carbonate rock issue ie when they start flow testing it, the well gets blocked up. Previous RNSs stated no water, only oil shows and pressure back to previous levels.
My guess is Sonangol thought it best for reservoir management reasons to test levels different to historic producing depths. But they found the carbonate is being pulled into the well and blocking it. So they’ve been trying to fix that with limited success so are now thinking they have to test the historic producing levels which may have better rock characteristics. They were prolific producers before.
That’s the only way I can reconcile the very positive previous RNSs with this latest negative RNS.
Wondering if they might do a sidetrack. Also maybe FFD will be horizontals in the historic producing levels to improve reservoir management.
TO13 might flow
Morning Ed,
Bit of a shocker this morning.
Don’t you think it’s a bit strange to release an update saying there is a problem, when they are still trying to work it out?
A lot of wells must encounter issues along the way , that eventually get sorted out?
I am sure they could have waited a while, try and find a solution and then inform the market as to whether they have been successful or not?
The only credible reason I can think of is because of the timelines on the presentation?
All very strange
Thanks Nige
Thanks Art
Another 25 per cent down. Don’t rush to buy these imo until they go much lower or the company reassures.
Https://www.corcelplc.com/
https://www.corcelplc.com/investors/regulatory-news/
Will someone please post the link to Corcel's X webpage that is updated only with company news. Thanks in advance.
Morning Nige,
That's the thing though they haven't completed the test of TO-14 yet let alone testing TO-13. In fact the RNS also reads
"The Operator is following through with the completion program for both wells with continual updates to the program based on new information obtained with progression of the engineering work."
To complete the wells they must think this engineering work ongoing will solve it.
Regards,
Ed.
No worries, I genuinely don’t feel like many here can see the wood for the trees.
IMO the RNS was deliberately vague to tick the ‘updating the market’ box with ‘we might have a problem’ but confusing enough to be fooled into buying more in the hope that they interpret it the way the main market is clearly not…
8M market cap isn’t so cheap if you have licenses no one else wants, dry wells and have a board that pumps upbeat and confident news coming soon on social media, only to deceive them with the real ‘bad’ news, hours later. Each to their own I suppose, but how people have money in this stock the equivalent value of a nice detached house, boggles my mind, they must know what we don’t
Maybe posters are just being sarcastic when they post that they are 'buying more' or 'topping up', etc, etc
Sorry Sniper88.
I did not read that as being sarcastic though I can now when I reread it. To be honest there have been far too many bonkers posts here since the RNS was released to know what is going on.
Blimey, who needs to average down. I got out at a small profit yesterday anyway. I certainly won't be buying in again unless they can produce some half-decent flow rates.
ART you might not have noticed that my post was entirely sarcastic! And I was humouring those on here who seem to think all is rosey and nothing could possibly be wrong here.
Is that Sonangol's friends?
Or were Sonangol asked (nicely) by Corcel to bring out a progress update on the well testing late in the day and to make it a very confusing and poor update 'so their friends could get in cheap'.
Some bonkers posts and theories here.
Morning Sienna,
I even said yesterday with the declining volumes of trading on the run up to Easter I wasn't expecting an update until next Tuesday. Imo they should have held off as the RNS is inconclusive. It suggests they need an engineering solution to test the most productive zones in the well so testing is still ongoing. They haven't said specifically if these engineering solutions include a sidetrack, if it were mechanical failure or a well integrity issue. RNS is very vague, but it sounds as if there are still untested zones down there for whatever reason.
They currently have £9m in undrawn notes and are in the process of selling those Ni assets so still remains cheap in my view currently. The fact that they're still planning on well completion suggests its far from over yet and the market sure does like to overreact at times. They should have really held back under the cover of the operator until they had a clearer update of what is going on.
Regards,
Ed.
And maybe avarage down. this is delay, not suspend or burst or administration.
Morning Ed,
It was a shock to that kind of RNS for sure, no one saw that coming .
Considering work is ongoing and they still have to test the other well, it seems an overreaction to me.
The market cap is now only £8mill .
Thanks Nige
Certainly not good news.
Yeah maybe they released the RNS at 4pm on Wednesday night, because it is actually good news for the market, and everything is right on track, and they are just allowing all their friends to get in on the cheap before this rockets to 36p.
Gla.
Ed.
Good to see you comment this morning.
A number on Telegram have commented on the bad timing of the Rns . A little under 30 mins from close of trading. Also like you said they should have expanded more on operations. But a number said it was oversold yesterday. Its unfortunately another wait when most of us expected quick movement during 1st quarter. I topped up just after 8.00. Only 100000 at 0.48p. Im gonna see if they reported it as a sale of buy.
Keep posting please.
Where's the $10m come from? It does not cost $10m to drill a well.
Goodness me I wasn't expecting a late RNS, have read it several times today so far. Its a hard one to interpret for sure. They say they're having difficulty flowing TO-14 yet are competing the well not abandoning it? They continue to test the most productive zones, the well testing continues and they haven't started testing TO-13 yet, weather delays etc. They're also progressing the engineering work too. As well they retain their position on the recoverable from the field. Its just a pity they didn't mention how much of the well had been tested and how many of the "productive zones" remain untested. It leaves more questions than answers compared to prebivous releases. But reading it several times suggest everything is still ongoing at both wells.
Regards,
Ed.