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No not me... the trading update!
"Revenue 9% lower in the four months ended 30 April 2024, compared with the same period in 2023
Total Contract Value won decreased 9% in the four months to 30 April 2024.
Contract win rate down by 3% to 77% (2023: 80%)
Capita Public Service adjusted revenue1 reduced 5%, in four months to 30 Apr 24, reflecting previously announced losses in Local Public Service, and reduced contract activity in the first 4 months of the yr in Defence and Education."
Now I totally understand the new CEO is having to turn the fortunes around which will take time but right now the market will probably punish CPI yet again...
IMO the June results must show some progress else CPI will be in serious trouble.
This is dire.
Going to get punished again, for third time.
15-20% down anyone?
I’m still staggered that JL had the gall to announce that the turnaround was complete whilst leaving the company in a complete mess. Misleading shareholders is an understatement.
The worry is that AH hasn’t much time to turn this around as JL squandered time & money available
Is this another profit warning or really a reiteration?
Presumably June update isn’t going to be too good hence AH announcing the drop in T/O prior to this
Let's not forget the problem here isn't revenue it's profitability and inefficiency. Time will tell... fortune favours the brave!
Agree Culley01 - it's a desperately sad state of affairs and even a CEO with an amazing record will be well up against it... I think the very best the June results could now be expected to show is a slowing of the rot, I dont think its possible to 'level out' in time for June.
Absolute worst case could be AH is left with little choice but to reach for the emergency RI lever but let's hope it does not come to that.
Guys it’s no change….
For the full year 2024, we continue to expect the Group’s adjusted revenue1 to be broadly in line with 2023. Capita Public Service is expected to show full year revenue growth, driven by a number of contracts won in 2023, including Functional Assessment Services, moving into their operational phase later in the year. Capita Experience is expected to show a full year revenue decline, principally reflecting the one-offs in 2023 coupled with the losses and volume reductions noted above.
We remain on track to deliver cost savings as announced within the full year 2023 results, further information will be provided at the Group’s Capital Markets Event in June.
Unless this is a profit warning, what's the point if it?
Two choices here.. bale out at open for a large loss or do nothing and see where we end up. Experience tells me the latter provides a better outcome, especially when some powder remains dry... I never trade in the first 30 mins of any market, it has served me well over the years,
And terrible day to do it, we'll miss any bounce in cpi day tomorrow.
JG I don’t know what you mean by a profit warning. It’s telling us that performance is as was expected. Plus cost cuts .
JG68 - IMO any attempt made to try and justify this update as 'just a reiteration of what was already known' is seriously missing the wider point because those investing their hard earned cash buying into that narrative would IMO be massively underestimating their level of risk here...
Let's not beat around the Bush... this trading update is not just terrible, its diabolical, and yes the blame lies squarely at the door of the previous CEO.
All focus should turn to interrogating precisely what's being done to turn things around.
All IMO - DYOR - GLA
Savage it’s not diabolical - it’s as expected. H1 reduction , pick up in H2.
What were you expecting in 4 months precisely ?
Your not wrong Savage .. the new CEO doing a warts and all disclosure to begin his tenure... no point starting with the bar seen to be high
"we continue to expect the Group’s adjusted revenue1 to be broadly in line with 2023."
Problem is that IMO there words are very unlikely to be true because:
"The Group’s adjusted revenue1 was 9% lower in the four months ended 30 April 2024, compared with the same period in 2023"
To maintain the same annual revenue as 2023 the rest of the year had to deliver a much greater revenue share...
IMO I just don't think that's realistic.
"we continue to expect the Group’s adjusted revenue1 to be broadly in line with 2023."
Problem is that IMO there words are very unlikely to be true because:
"The Group’s adjusted revenue1 was 9% lower in the four months ended 30 April 2024, compared with the same period in 2023"
I.e. To maintain the same annual revenue as 2023 the rest of the 2024 year has to deliver a much greater revenue share...
IMO I just don't think that's realistic.
Savage have you read the 2023 accounts where this was predicted ?
Why exactly are you here?
SK is a little trader who's out to get people to panic and sell to him on the cheap. The agenda is pretty straight forward..
GoCPI - As I previously declared... I made my decision to invest in BT and not CPI.
Now although you may try and label me as having an agenda it's sadly the case that I just don't have any sort of power or influence over the stock markets to get people to sell to me on the cheap.
It's a little bit of a ridiculous claim to be making.
Savage Keyboard - I wish you’d go away.
You are quite entitled to air a negative but why mislead
Here was your first quote today:-
"Revenue 9% lower in the four months ended 30 April 2024, compared with the same period in 2023”
You made a personal choice to overlook or mention the words “ in line with expectations”
The question is Why?
Trisor - that may be your opinion because you dislike what I am quoting from the RNS today.
Everyone here can read the RNS and I don't need to copy every single part of it.
Savage Keyboard- you have selectively quoted to meet your very clear agenda.
You are not invested and you are hanging around here like a bad smell. At least have the decency to quote in full. Yes pleiple can read an RNS but it does give the impression you are doing this deliberately and for a real purpose .
Only quoting parts from an RNS will not tell the whole story, I e it will be out of context.
To me this is a nothing RNS, slightly disappointing that there is no breakdown of cost savings or targets. That said. Rome wasn’t built in a day and AH has a big job to do….all in good time.
Trisor - It's obvious to any investor that I was not quoting the whole RNS - as for agenda I previously declared I was considering investing in CPI (but I chose BT instead) and I was curious on the results as at some point I may make an investment... therefore yes, I will interrogate the results as this is a discussion board for opinions (unless they differ to yours it seems).
Look there's no escaping this terrible RNS - it's in line with expectations (which anticipated terrible results) and there's no signs yet that the turnaround is slowing the rot. IMO for the SP to have boosted there would have needed to have been some small positive sign in this trading update today but there's nothing of the sort in this RNS.
The outlook is grim, for me I will want to see the June results, or to see something majorly positive in the Macroeconomic environment before again considering investing in CPI.