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Kippers sounds like he’s a very nervous investor imo
Would you top up at these levels- of course I would it’s a gift imo why wouldn’t you ?
So Kipper talks of fields as to why at 17p he would not BUY, but he would BUY at 16p and sell when it hits 25/26p which to be clear means he expects a rise here of over 50%
Then Trenners makes a post and Kipster is already questioning his strategy- I mean really ?
I mean I expect a rise here of over 100% and won’t be selling as long as progress is being made but that’s just me
Hard to disagree with any of that being fair. So, you don't advocate any top-up's at this level?
My frustration is with the stagnant share price. But not totally, as that can be the 'market', as with those companies you speak of. I bought Capita, partly, because of Jon Lewis. I fully subscribed to the turnaround rhetoric and am dissapointed that after 6 to 7 years we still do not make a profit. Recent analogies on here with Zuckerberg & Sir Clive Thomson bear witness it should not take this long.
To answer my own earlier question; are we where Rentokil was in 1990 when Thomson took over? ( or RR more recently)
I hope so, dearly i do. But i still will sell at break even. Stick the £30k in a tracker fund & hopefully sleep a little sounder.
PS; Am also in with VOD at 72p and ITV at 64p respectively. At least i get a divi there, for now...lol
I wouldn't be in such a rush to reduce my average or head for the exit as I'm certain that anyone with an average of 46p or less is going to do very well here ....
How can I be so sure? Well follow the money and Schroder's have been quite happy to buy and hold over 19% of Capita at 46p for years.
If they still see value then I still see value.
Historically an average of 27p (which is only just higher than what I hold) would have been astonishing and there's no reason in the future why 27p won't be viewed as an astonishing average again (for all the right reasons).
So - you've bought Capita at 27p and you are about 33% down .... And how would you have faired if you had bought Vodafone for £1 (a historically low average) or BT at £1.50 or even Lloyds at 50p or Barclays at £1.70.or even ITV at 70p.....
The answer is you would be down between 20% and 35% with those blue chip shares too .... It's just the way of the.current market.
I'm no spring chicken either and would like to get a return / get out of my Capita investment - but given I've sat for some time with. 33% paper loss - I won't be selling until the tables turn and I see a 33% paper gain ....
Target is therefore 36p - which is about the price these traded for in the middle of COVID and were still that price as recently as around last June.
No rush - remember Buffet - successful investing is the patient taking money from the impatient
"AH needs to acknowledge the underperformance-a bit like the RR guy did (perhaps not as stark!) . I dont want to hear about how wonderful they are. If they were all so goddamn wonderful Capita would be one of the most sought after shares with a P/e ratio multiples of where it is today
I don't mind acknowledgement of efforts made -that's fair enough but the message must be profit, profit, profit. Other wise sell it to a ruthless PE player for 46p and move on!"
Oh Lordy fella, we are soooo on the same hymnsheet. Some excellant posts on here today, from all perspectives; no name calling, just opinions on contant
But, wait a minute. Where is NF & AIM?
Board just ain't the same without them here, imv
AH needs to acknowledge the underperformance-a bit like the RR guy did (perhaps not as stark!) . I dont want to hear about how wonderful they are. If they were all so goddamn wonderful Capita would be one of the most sought after shares with a P/e ratio multiples of where it is today
I don't mind acknowledgement of efforts made -that's fair enough but the message must be profit, profit, profit. Other wise sell it to a ruthless PE player for 46p and move on!
"Oh and it would be a good idea if AH stopped writing sh*te on Linked In!"
Agree, wouldn't the Capita Investor Relations website be a better place to update all stakeholders, us included, on his monthly progress??
"It's true though, unless AH has a workable plan that translates into making CPI a profit making concern it will go nowhere. Granted the price, at the moment, is not truly reflective of the companies worth, but the market is dictating that. I just want to see concrete evidence of a constructive action and not just the spin that JL has been regurgitating for the last 6 years. "
Agree, i think this about where i am.
Just to be absolutly as clear as crystal re my entry price & strategy. I see high 15's to low 16's a reasonable enrty. Maybe an inflection point. Year low was itro 15.5p in mid October last. So i think my figures are in the ballpark. Anyone buying in this area might reasonably expect to do ok. If AH is a Sir Clive, that is.
Strategy; i just need to bring my average down to sell and leave with my capital intact. Recent high 22.5p only start of January. If i can bring my average to 25p, i have a change of getting out with the skin still on my teeth.
Others will have much differant strategies, and am respectful of those. But, at my age, i need to be out.
Trisor - The answer is simple - start making a genuine profit and stick to the plan, report with honesty and accuracy. Oh and it would be a good idea if AH stopped writing sh*te on Linked In!
@Trenners yes I do agree it’s always a year or two down the line & then something comes up to make it another year or two.
I’ll give AH a year to make his mark & show progress otherwise I’ll reluctantly depart from Capita
That's the problem with this share - progress is always 12 to 18 months away ....
We don't need smoke and mirrors - we need binoculars!
Lordy how will we know if it's not smoke and mirrors with a new CEO. We will only have RNS's to go by
I'm obviously keen to do well but I must admit it might be 12-18 months before we see really decent progress -everything until then will surely be smoke and mirrors aspiration!
Gents - very amusing and descriptive posts, the farm analogy is a good one. It's true though, unless AH has a workable plan that translates into making CPI a profit making concern it will go nowhere. Granted the price, at the moment, is not truly reflective of the companies worth, but the market is dictating that. I just want to see concrete evidence of a constructive action and not just the spin that JL has been regurgitating for the last 6 years. No more smoke and mirrors, evidence!
@Honeywell..."Must be a very poor forensic accountant!"
Possibly, but can you say hand on heart that you fully understand the FY numbers?
Must admit i struggle a bit....
@HHH "If not, it will just carry on disappointing year after year."
Or the farm will go bankrupt, one or 'tother
Trisor & HHH, excellant retorts, and i hope your analogies work out more correct than mine
I guess it comes down to whether a person believes the end of year numbers year after year.
Maybe another analogy for you folks with teeth long enough. Early 1990's. I remember a fella called Clive Thomson (later Sir Clive) taking over Rentokil. For 13 straight years he improved the profits by minimum 20%. The press dubbing him 'Mr 20%'. Remember anyone? So what Kipper? What's your point?
My point is we (shareholders) need Adolfo to be a Sir Clive more than a JL. If he does prove to be so then is Capita at the same time in it's history to be a Rentokil (later Rentokil-Initial)? I certainly hope so.
It may be so, but as AIM said at the weekend, there is no sign of a change in the fundamentals. If there was then Institutional Funds would be piling in, wouldn't they? We wouldn't be at 17p.
All food for thought, and respectful discussion.....imho
Kipper9 - not entirely true, as you know.
He's sold off all of the wheat and barley fields to reduce expensive debts, kept on the corn and rapeseed that create £3 billion of revenue a year, and is going to get self driving combine harvesters to do all of the work. If, he makes a slight saving on the cost base in doing this, profit will jump and the share price multi bag. If not, it will just carry on disappointing year after year.
@ Kipper-thanks for your amusing analogy
To continue with the analogy...the farmer 's predecessors had bought a lot of equipment which didnt work out to well because of EU quotas and significant profit didn't materialise. The predecessors indebted the farm significantly. So Farmer Jon sold of some of the equipment and reduced the debt leaving the best bits of the farm. Its now up to his son who is well versed in the very latest practices and is well connected, to work the remaining part of the farm better
So Kippers fascinating farm story below apparently is really important at 17p but not at all important at his advertised 16p BUY price presumably- very weird
Must be a very poor forensic accountant!
What the CEO has been doing over the past years is gathering all the revenue & sales of the best bits of Capita and throwing it all in his metaphorical bucket, giving it a good stir, then presenting it so mixed up a forensic accountant can't understand it.
Try this. A farmer, lets call him Jon. Basically he can't grow crops for toffee. So he sells 50 acres a year so the books look balanced. 6 years later he retires and leaves the farm to his son. Lets call him Adolfo. Only trouble is the farm is now only 500 acres & couldn't possibly turn a profit at that.
Does that make it easier for you good God fearing people!
From Pre-closing trading update to 30th Nov 2023:
Increased contract wins and execution of significant cost reduction programme
Positive operational performance across both divisions; adjusted revenue GROWTH of 2.1% in 11 months to 30 November 2023.
Contracts won with a Total Contract Value (TCV) of £2.89bn, increase of 47% from 2022; significant improvement in win rate for new contracts and expansions to 70%.
Execution of efficiency savings with planned overhead cost reductions of £60m on an annualised basis from Q1 2024.
Underpins target of more than doubling Group operating margin from 2.9% and delivering sustainable positive free cash flow over medium term.
Completion of Travel disposal, exchange of Fera with completion expected in early 2024 bringing to a close the Portfolio Division disposal programme.
Reduced future pension fund contributions under the recently agreed 2023 Triennial review; actuarial pension surplus as at end March 2023: £51m.
What a load of complete tosh; nearly spat my cornflakes all over the carpet reading such codswhallop
Lets just pull this apart & add some facts;...
“We reported revenue growth, plans for doubling margins , and are working on positive free cash flow.”
Then CEO Jon Lewis wrote this in his 2018 FY Results in March 2019. An aspiration then 6 years ago, and still only an aspiration
“We also know that Capita has contracts which have recurring revenues over the long-term, which provide stability and recurring revenue for years to come.”
As Terry said over the weekend, revenue means nothing.
As Alan Miltz said 'Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity'
“we know AI and our collaboration with Microsoft are all focused on driving value and performance as well as delivering improved customer experience. “
Many many companies are doing deals with Microsoft on AI, including all our competitors; that is why Microsoft has recently overtaken Apple as the worlds largest company by market cap. In 5 years time if a company like Capita has not incorparated AI into their business they are gone. It's not a bonus to have AI, it's a necessity.
If anyone is new to Capita and this message board & are thinking of buying, then beware what you read. Do your research, your due dil, and make your decision from that. If I had to give just but one piece of advice it would be this; Do not buy based on what you read by us idiots on here, especially me.
Low 16's & I might be tempted; incoming soon....imho
So we know that Capita has shown signs of improvement from where it was, there are green shoots. We reported revenue growth, plans for doubling margins , and are working on positive free cash flow. Dividends could be back in a couple of years or sooner.
We also know that Capita has contracts which have recurring revenues over the long-term, which provide stability and recurring revenue for years to come.
The company's restructuring and transformation efforts should lead to further improvements and we know AI and our collaboration with Microsoft are all focused on driving value and performance as well as delivering improved customer experience.
A significant portion of Capita's revenue comes from government contracts, which offer stability and predictability and is a difficult area to break into
The Share price does not imo reflect these factors currently so if you believe these changes will make progress then this could be a great opportunity
History. The Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne announced what he termed the "National Living Wage" at the end of his budget speech on 8 July 2015, a new national minimum wage rate only for people over the age of 25. The National Living Wage is implemented via an amendment to National Minimum Wage Act 1998.
What's interesting is, you had a go at xenor for selling out here to pursue opportunity elsewhere that youve trolled him for, yet you've sold out yourself lol supposedly anyway imho
I have been clear with my position. And stated where I stood. However from 16% up to sell at 18p. Staying muted until I had to question before you told us stop loss got triggered at 18p. It's clear you only shared that information when share price hit 17.50p to feel that little better to cap the loss. Had it hit 18 and hit 20s, I would guess you would have kept quiet about being stopped out. Tbh I am not even sure if you have been stopped out, could be lies hence why I take the comment as a pinch of salt imho gla