Member Info for kularatnam

The election results is a sure sign labour will be out in two years time and along with it the bloated/ monstrous gambling taxes. Anyone, including Ballys , will hasten to decide to swallow this company cheap. Sure there will be bidding war and we will see far north of the 50p. GLA.

Negative messages have been flooding the boards which I think have been very much overblown. Firstly look at as to why this share has been £12+ over the last few years till this USA fiasco. I believe it is because of the cash generative feature of the business coupled with decent dividend distribution history. This year the dividend is low but there was a share buy back of £ 23mn or 17p per share. Total pay back of 34p.

These last two years EBITDA averages around £190mn, fantastic numbers with positive Free Cash flow of £60+ mn, also good.

FCA fear mongering is also given too much prominence. It reminds me of TESCO with similar case in 2017 for over stating profits by £263mn and the overall cost was some £235mn. It is in this context we have to look at the £30 or £40 mn overstated in the USA operations. & the investigation will take years.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/tesco-pay-129-million-pounds-settle-false-accounting-062520206--finance.html

GoCpi, thanks for that detailed analysis.Good.

Also posted strong results in Q3 and expects better performance for the rest of the year. Generally the industry is doing well and nd hope S4 follow suit.gla

Posted good Q3 results.Revenue 5.7% up.Margin 18%. Rest of the year promising.

When will S4 publish ?

Https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/other/gm-s-comeback-story-isn-t-happening-in-america/ar-AA1Ofa32?ocid=BingNewsSerp

How much of this success can be attributed to Monks? Q3 will tell.

Https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/jamie-dimon-says-jpmorgan-spends-2b-a-year-on-ai-and-still-breaks-even/ar-AA1O2OOB?ocid=BingNewsSerp

Strong performance by GM - YOY increase in sales by 10%. Monks must be establishing itself at GM.

https://investor.gm.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gm-q3-sales-rise-8-growth-both-gas-and-electric-vehicles

Https://www.ft.com/content/bfafd06e-0a92-4add-9ae5-622e3c2c8f29

Hundreds of billions are being pumped into AI. We need to take note it.

NigeCo " Wes & Victor will have a very good idea of Q3 results that ended end of Sept, released around 27th Oct. Dare I say it, I think we are past the worst."

You may be correct on this.

We are down 13% in the First Half ( Net Revenue) . Full year projections are a YOY reduction in mid single digits. So obviously 2nd Half will have to be very much better than the 1st - Growth in 2ndH over 1st. Wes & Victor could have seen that happening in Q3. My calculations and assumptions tells me we will be about 18 to 20% higher than the 1st Half, confirming stronger showing in the 2nd Half, as always claimed by SMS which never happend in the past.

Thanks, 1Pencil . It is difficult to form an opinion. It is a kind of wait and see situation. My focus is mainly on monks and see how it navigates. GLA.

1Pencil , what is your honest view on S4 and monks which heavily rely on AI as to its prospects.

Havas & Horizon

https://www.adweek.com/agencies/havas-and-horizon-launch-joint-venture-with-20b-in-billings/

Https://www.businessinsider.com/sam-altman-predicts-ai-agi-surpass-human-intelligence-2030-2025-9

Listening to SMS on various forums I very much convinced that he is bankning heavely on Technology and in particular AI to do do bulk of the work and in puuit of this are the high level collaboarations and partnerships with almost all the top notch tech companies. He often quotes Palantier saying they are going to increase revenue many folds with reduced number of staff.

Today revenue per employee @ S4 is £100,000, whereas truly tech companies runs into several hundred thousands to millions. We are nowhere there. But recently he is on record saying the collapsing of costs on various parts of its production cycle. A case in point is the completion of a project in 12 days which would have otherwise taken 200 days. I attribute this to the technology they have. I believe we are in transistion period and sooner or later will be transformed into a truly tech company in this AD agency sector and a disruptor. Real value will then be known. GLA

1Pencil, I also share some of your concerns. But it so happens that some so called experts /researchers are biased or prejudiced. Our own SMS ( Sorrel ) says AI is an industrial revolution. The results or benefits dont come overnight, but will take some time. But monks.com has made use of it and is reaping good returns.

My take on some excerpts on your article -

“In the absence of tech-related spending, the US would be close to, or in, recession this year,” wrote George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, in a note Tuesday."

I am surprised by these statements. How hollow . It is like saying Saudi wont survive if not for oil.

“It may not be an exaggeration,” he added, to say that Nvidia alone “is currently carrying the weight of US economic growth.”

This is ridiculous. USA GDP is $29 trillion in 2024.Nvidia income for 2025 $131 bn, a fraction of US GDP. How can this have an impact on economic growth of USA. I was amused. This is how some of these experts mislead the public. GLA

Https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/s4-capital-downgraded-by-moodys-to-b2-from-b1-amid-revenue-decline-93CH-4249788

The Good, Bad and the Ugly comments are here. This report appears to have been released today but the market was positive. GLA

NigeCo, that was a good find.

The following statements caught my attention. "Net net I do think AI will reduce employment in our industry. " again " A Package goods client who estimated a commercial to prodcuced would take 200 days but monks with its Monks.Flow suite was able to complete it within 12 days."

Now this 200 days to 12 days is a massive reduction and a kind of revolution which will have a positive impact on the turnaround time . the number and cost of assets that could be produced in a given period of time. Surely this will put Monks ahead in competition. Better times are ahead. GLA

Hhttps://www.adweek.com/media/meta-courts-ad-agencies-ahead-of-zuckerbergs-ai-driven-vision

Longfell & GoCpi , thanks for those kind words.

"Could we get to a >15% adjusted EBITDA in Q4, after accounting for layoff payouts? THat's the million quid question." May be possible after treating lay off costs as One Off .

Also wondering why S4 is benchmarking 65% staff cost to revenue when it distinguishes itself from others as being more smarter and therefore has to be a lower percentage.lol.