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Blue blue blue
Gla enjoy the week
£sss
Hi longfell,
Good to have a different view. Irrespective of who is right or wrong. Therein lies an issue of further investor confusion or obfuscation depending on one’s view.
From RNS….
“ · A structure deliberately designed to support COPL and senior lenders with the implementation of an RBL agreement.”
So rather than debate. Let’s just say take away the RS report which obviously helps the RBL that investors, self included, thought was pivotal. So make it vanish!
Now revisit your entitled pov.
“ Trek - the report has no bearing on the RBL.”
I emphasis your word ‘NO’ and the subsequent sp response.
You see imo many investors fall into a bull or bear trap. They vehemently argue one camp or another. Fine. Few are dynamic with their interpretation of data especially as it changes. Fine also.
It makes a market.
Usual caveats
Trek
Anyone got any idea what our BOPD could be realistically achieved in the short term if COPL can maximise output from current wells. In particular IF we can sort out the pressure issues(flaring in Sept.) and sort out the waxing problems.?
Art needs to do something to get the sp well over 18p.
The 16.75 warrants will be attractive at that price. Another $9m to drill the horizontal wells on the new find.
Agreed. Copl is stuck in a rut and existing cash is disappearing as I type. No normal bank will lend to this rabble so its wonga finance and big discounted placements
“I believe any RBL will be used to pay debt and nothing will be left for drilling, workovers or upgrades and that is why the BoD have been discussing further funding that will come by another terrible placement”
JUNIOR TRANCHE FOR CAPEX
NPV10 USD$380m (on Reserves only) = ~£310m, less debt (guess at same) ~£50m = £260m, multiply by 50% for risk = £130m, on ~260m shares = 50p. Value of RS OIP ...? Probably quite a lot though (haha).
(Amount of debt / no. of shares subject to change on day-by-day basis!).
GLA
Evening all, looking forward production should climb steeply imminently.
From the presentation, we know 5 of the wells with wax in tubing have been treated, also we have identified what the issues are and are treating them.
Problem would have been if the reservoir wasn’t responding, but we know that’s not the case.
Hoping this weeks Q2 results give us a good forward looking statement regarding production.
Are we seeing the SP at the bottom? I think we are as Friday saw the lowest share swapping at these levels for days.
With the New Discovery, SP can easily be 2,3,4 etc more times current level as NOTHING is priced in - once it gets going it will take some stopping because I think many are sitting on the sidelines.
Yes. COPL specifically stated in the last investor meet that the RBL is based on current reserves. Nothing to do with the new find and RS report.
Trek - the report has no bearing on the RBL.
Sorry £300m - £36m mc and £50m debt) £86m) £214m. / £36. MC. ). 5.9
CURRENT SP 14p x 5.9 = 82. 6p
So should be 82.6p sp. Today - not including new discovery.
Or could be I've caught to much sun.
£36 x 5.9 =
More good balanced views isthisawinner,
My concern with the RS report is if it is too complex then that may dilute the leverage it has to get the best RBL terms. Bankers from my experience like simple. However, I think that is likely mitigated by the institutional unsecured investment. They, bankers, also like to see shared risks as well as y leveraged assets!
There’s always ops challenges but at the end of the day they usually get resolved. I am more worried about supply side than wax because of time. Get the right equipment and set up and with todays tech I don’t see anything thus far operationally commented on as insurmountable.
Resolve a few of the unknowns which just takes a little time and all will look completely different here.
Let’s just hope Art is confident of delivering the RBL within the timeline he signed up to.
That is what will imo defer further dilution. As time ticks along the 90 days so investors will become more nervous.
I reckon he has a rabbit but at this juncture I would rather just wait to see what it is unless of course the SP gets even ‘sillier’, using the comparative that is.
Good luck with your investments
Usual caveats
Trek
And with a mc of 36m + debt (£50m). So £300m - £50m(debt) = £264m / £36 = 7.3
So share price should be 14p × 7.3 = 102p
So sp should be £1 at the moment not including new discovey.
I think we are going to see some nice big blue days coming up as we rerate to proper value.
Isthisawinner - I don't think you read my post. I am talking about a Hostile t/o one where this could be sold for 20p.
Good points.
If the Bond Holders continue to convert their debt securities to shares, particularly whole the sp is below the conversion rate, then maybe something is 'afoot'.
GLA
Longfield, it's all on paper ( having said that, Ryder Scott wasn't happy to even put in on paper ), nobody will pay big money for us until they see a track record, as it is, Art, with all his expertise, is struggling . If Art can sort out the wax issue, stabilise the pressure and get the output up, followed by positive drills later this year/ early next, then we will become takeover target for the likes of Continental with their resources to drill multiple wells at a time.
You have a company with book value of £300m and a discovery worth several billion. If I had the means l would buy it now not in a year's time.
Can't see a takeover just yet, maybe this time next year. We need to be producing at least a lot more first.
It could well be the person who approached AM and set up this deal ie the bond holders themselves. They know the value of this- they could buy up the company for a song.
If there is big buying this week and then more shorting and converting again then I think we have our answer.
Interesting thought. So what do we think …?
Brokers / FA’s sold their 5.9m?
Bond Holders cashed some debt for shares and now holding 12m shares? Now at less than exercise price. But, perhaps, on expectation of a ‘hostile takeover’?
Was there any ‘forward selling’?
If Bond Holders think there might be someone ‘lurking ‘, perhaps we should expect more of the same?
I.e convert debt to shares at a nominal loss, giving up the interest due, on the prospect of a takeout?
Who might be moving on a ‘hostile takeover’?
(Arthur mentioned our neighbour Continental in passing – though in the context of ‘operational’ stuff only).
Who’s your money on?
GLA
So the bond holders insisted on no more share issue and are converting rapidly to stock. It seems there maybe a hostile take over afoot.