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I've not really seen anything to suggest my 65p share equivalent value is wide of the mark, albeit it looks like the mms were spooked by some low volumes in the last few days. They do seem to like these dramatic drops in price.
My interpretation of MV vs NBV is that MV at 20p is about 25% below book value. And book value is of course cost based rather than valuation based. I'll stick with 65p, although as others have already said, it's a 'pin the tail on the donkey' exercise trying to identify anything close to the price the assets will go for. In people's minds it's worth less when the SP goes down, and more when it goes up. In reality the takeout price will be what it will be.
I can't pretend I'm not frustrated by the whole exercise though. At this point I think I would rather a decision be made on raising a chunk of project finance, rather than maintaining a seemingly interminable wait for hard bid to appear. Having said that it would not surprise me in the least to see a bid appear in the middle of the silly season, August.
Today's drop just looks like the mms trying to figure out where the buy/sell momentum is. Versus the last few days, spooked or not, it looks like they got it right. Some of these new investors could stand to make a good chunk in a relatively short space of time when the bids appear.
E l, you would imagine that since the sell has always been a new mine, employment etc that it should be unlikely to not build mine but hey they let us away with calling clearing scrub as starting construction when it became obvious that construction wouldn’t start 18 months after granting permits, still describe the project as almost construction ready so anyone’s guess.
The eggs in one basket is one of the reasons I don’t see calibre paying big bucks but paper makes sense which I wouldn’t mind to add to my existing calibre shares.
Going to be interesting seeing what actually transpires.
E l. At the time of the calibre deal many here said it wasn’t a good deal. It was completed at close to the highs of most goldies in 2020. Calibre sp has since trebled but most gold producers sp are significantly down since then .
Calibre are never going to pay treble or more that they paid b2 in a worse market. $150 m tops in cash and paper imv. Here’s a link to that deal
https://www.b2gold.com/news/2019/b2gold-completes-the-sale-of-nicaragua-assets-to-calibre-mining-corp
Perhaps they are interested in parts, ie not la India itself. A
One person claims it’s world class 🤥🤥🤥it could be 2.1 ,5 7 10 maybe 12 possibly 15 but to be honest 🤔we spent the money needed to prove all that on a mill we was never going to use plus monthly storage payments and a drinking water program
Plan b just keep sucking the dollars until further notice
That’s all folks for now yr 🧅🧅
- Does Calibre still have spare capacity at their mills? If so, then they could delay (or conceivably never) build a mine at La India, saving both the construction time and money.
- Just because Calibre got a good deal buying B2's assets, doesn't mean that similarly great (ie. cheap, for them) deals are currently on the market...
- I agree though that Calibre must be looking at us closely, despite the inherent "eggs-in-a-basket" risk. There's too many synergies for them to discount the possibility entirely.
Calibre releasing great results.$77m in cash on track for 270 k oz production. M cap £430 m.
£1 p s would give a price of £210 plus another $€110 m for mine build . Then a two year wait for production. Calibre paid $100 m for b2 assets including 2 plants . Yes Cnr has most of a ball mill. Cash and calibre paper is possibility as in b2 deal.
Hi broom, that will have been when there were less than half the ammount of shares obviously. Think 40-60 is realistic with 50 p being my guess which I would be happy with . Let a few go around 34 p, regretting not offing more but that’s life. Didn’t actually foresee such a pullback.
Good luck
My but this waiting game makes people testy! I’ve made my 100% in this back when I sold just over 60p, I’ve had several smaller forays since for lesser amounts.
I remember doing a deep dive valuation back in the day that threw up £1.68 but that was for a functioning gold mine… so I think we can forget that
I haven’t a clue how to put a value on this today given the geography etc but its probably fair to say 40p low ball to £1 high ball; the market currently seems to be pricing low ball but I’d hope we might make 60p which would do me fine
All pure conjecture though so do your own research but don’t start with the hating game… not good for the blood pressure lol
Seingred, you are usually so polite and controlled when you reply to the rah rah club cheerleaders. Good to see that you do have fire in ya belly!
Slim, keep it up. You don't need help, you are the help that we all need.
Moving on then from this debate.....
Https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_zCnxt7myl4&pp=ygUbaGFwcHkgdGFsayBjYXB0YWluIHNlbnNpYmxl
Hahahahahaha. Happy talkie talkie happy talk.
Havnt changed my tune at all. Consistently worked out when the cash raises were due , told you sanctions were coming , told you no way production 2020, told you Mellon was dreaming about 100 k oz production last year and 150 k oz this was rubbish , told you we needed a bfs years ago when mc said not. All de ramping in your demented little brain. Now remind me what the f… have you ever got right you deluded little moron. Mm still leading peeps to expect £1 for their shares.
If anyone cares to review Seingred’s posting history over the years ( I wouldn’t recommend it) but you will see how he has changed his tune many times to try to assist his trading strategy at the time. He doesn’t like being called out as a deramping trader but just look at his posts he deramps but often tries to introduce some low level hope. In my opinion a nasty piece of work but form your own opinion and use the filter button if you think it is appropriate.
888, you wouldn’t know something sensible if it sat on your head and sung happy talk you tedious muppet.
DDD thank you for introducing something new and potentially very good for the gold price to this bb. The bb is fast becoming as bad as advfn with the deramping drivel based on nothing as there has been no news other than the sales process continues with considerable interest. Thanks to the few posters who have something sensible to contribute while the deramping traders make things up to talk their book. News will land one morning and I look forward to them getting their fingers severely burnt. The filter button is an obvious solution.
A bit of light reading.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-07-07/Russia-confirms-BRICS-will-create-a-gold-backed-currency.html
Slim you seriously need help!!!
Onion people are seeing through you now yr no more then a Granter. The last video we hadn’t had the money to drill but you had millions for a mill we are not going to use. If music was bull hip you be a leader of a brass band
All these options and exercise things are just unbelievable, a failed CEO and board members who simply use condor as a cash cow.
And what's amazing is the LTH here who simply excuse any cynical move as some ingenious move of JM/MC
In other words " they will continue to pee on you and you will continue to convince yourself that it's raining"
Iam Really realllly reallllllllllllllly realllllllllllllllly confident some may get some money back couldn’t answer the question with a straight answer who ray to heckler
By year end the May be hopeful
Frenchie, that may turn out to be correct.
There have still only been 3 site visits to my knowledge. You can have 20 ndas but if only 3 site visits and no extra for months that is the number of possible suitors in my mind and no new ones . Hopefully it is a straight take out and the sooner that is confirmed the better for the sp imv. Then a possible investor can make some attempt at valuation.
I am a bit disappointed with the length of time it is taking to get a binding offer. At this rate a conclusion this yrqs
Seingred, my take on the asset / company sale is that as it stands it is an asset sale, so the company can engage with more than 6 suitors, hence the reason we have 9/10 NDAs in place. I believe once bids become binding, we will see the asset sale dropped and it will become a full takeover of the company.
Lol I here the heckler club is growing
Simms. Yes some of the options will struggle to be in. the money. There are a number in the high 40 s , but not these 😆. Who’d guess that the cheapest options would be gifted not long before hopefully a sale, apparently for 3 or 4 times the price if you believe some here.