London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Yep, I do Mr Gerbil! Terrific news today - CHNS announced that 2009 PBT would be "materially ahead of market expectations": http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201001280700062377G Historic 2009 EPS should now be at least 52p EPS given previous forecasts of 47p EPS. At the current 316p that's a minimum historic P/E of only 6.1. And that's after an unusually large impairment charge in H1. The "true" adjusted historic EPS for 2009 could be around 60p or more, which would leave 2010 looking at perhaps 70p+ EPS given normal impairment charges. That's a current year P/E of just 4.5. The planned lead recycling facility might come on stream this year and would materially and quickly improve profitability. A poster elsewhere noted a comment from the house broker - "Seymour Pierce say price target of 500p is both realistic and conservative", targeting EPS of 50.4p in 2009 and 53.8p in 2010". Those EPS targets are VERY conservative. 50.4p EPS for 2009 is likely to be the house broker playing safe as in the past, allowing them to raise their forecasts and target prices again after the 2009 results are published soon.
nice rise - anyone here hold these?
You might be right , but there seems an awful lot of conjecture and supposition in your 'theory'. I am sure someone could write down the same points with a positive spin and sound just as credible. I think we should note that in Sept 09 your opinion was 'weak sell' when the price was 173.50. The price doubled from there before dropping back to today's 268. I am always happy to listen to negatives but also want to know what credentials or facts are available to support the argument - otherwise it gets booted into the 'noise' category.
The company openly says cash is tight and so cuts a small interim dividend to save cash, yet the figures released show cash at 32m (but with borrowings up to record levels). The Chairman throws the towel in, dumps all his stock, at the same time. The company has committed to a recycling plant thats going to severely use up the cash. Whilst H2 is always cash positive for CHNS, in general H1 severely uses cash in working cap (or you can fund it by bumping up your borrowings from the banks). With cash being used to fund this recycling plant, and with the company openly saying cash is tight, would it not, looking forward, suggest to people that whilst the Finals might look nice, interim figures in 2010 could be rather "cash tight". Could it be that the Chairman did not agree with the recycling plant as it will necessitate more cash being found by the company ? Will it mean that come year prelim figures, the company will be looking for placing monies in order to boost the cash position ? Was the point of the recent city presentations a first step for the begging bowl to be put out soon, in order to raise funds to ensure that come H1 2010 they are not going to be struggling for cash and with bank borrowings already high could it be they will be forced into a sudden placing to boost the balances, if they cannot secure funding in the interim period ? 2008 and 2009 was a period of massive expansion for telecoms with new base stations going in on a massive scale, however, the outlook for 2010 is less new stations and lots more simple upgrades to existing. That would explain CHNS trying to move into new markets as the outlook for base station batteries is weakening along with increased competition. I am unsure why the Chairman moved on so suddenly and dumped all his shares, but IMO he could have seen that the recycling plant is going to push cash to the limit and might mean a placing to raise funds. On top of that the base station battery outlook is weakening when you look to 2010 and 2011. Therefore, as I am sure many have learnt, do not get fooled by people spouting EPS figures. Cash (and committed cash spend) and outlook are key, not the EPS figures. I have warned about placing worries for some time, nice to see a certain CHNS bull finally admitting that it may be necessary. However, in the present market, the wolves will drive the price down if they get any sniff its going to be attempted.
Welcome aboard - even if it is a bit of a painful start for you ;-( Sure these will bounce back at some point. As for trying to explain its short term movements.....forget it. Maybe my 400 by Xmas should have been 40 ! LOL
im in, been watching it for a while, obviously took too long to take the plunge, im sure its a goodun!!
This share is up and down more times than a tarts draws.....I'll refrain from any comment on the spread :-)
we are rising again - camon china shoto - its xmas
Derek you seem to be letting our profits just slip away - hope your proud of yourself
That was some come down off those steroids, Steady rise until results i think- should get backup to the 340;s tomorrow - good luck to all shoto investors
Make that 345.......is this thing on steroids?
After the strange drop from 249 (when I did a small top up - doh!) it went down to 160 - its now doubled from that temp low to 332 in only 2 months. Does this mean its finally arrived on a wider radar? No complaints.... just very inconsistent price action. Will we see 400 by Xmas? Lets hope so :-)
CHNS' share price is now at an all-time high of 265p. Yet it continues to trade on a ridiculously low P/E. Even now at 265p the P/E is just 5.6, and the m/cap is not far above tangible NAV. A 50% share price rise from here to around 400p would still mean a P/E of only 8.5. The P/E at the current price would drop to only 4.8 assuming a conservative 55p EPS next year. And this low rating is predicated purely on CHNS' core and fast-growing telecoms business. Its excellent prospects in wind and solar power, for which it's already selling products, and electric power are in the price for free... Online on Friday you could not buy any shares at all! And you could sell loads of shares at ABOVE the mid-price. Which indicates that there is continuing demand for the shares, whilst there is little stock out there to satisfy demand at the current P/E of just over 5. The signs are good based on the above.
At 252p, up 5p today, the share price is at all-time highs. Yet STILL CHNS is on a P/E of only 5.4 based on the 47p EPS forecast (and probably less if CHNS beat forecasts as I believe they will), and is still only just above tangible NAV. With all the renewable energy prospects in the price for free. Fairly priced this could easily be at 400p+ imho based on say 55p-60p EPS next year and all that wind, solar and electric power potential.
Even after today's rise, CHNS remains on a P/E of only 5.1, and is finally above its tangible NAV :o)) And with 120k shares traded today (including PLUS) volumes have been extremely healthy by CHNS' standards.. A 14.5p rise today on excellent volumes is a very good sign going forward. There was an excellent supplement in yesterday's FT titled "The Future of Energy". The relevance to CHNS? Bear in mind that last year China became the world's leading exporter of energy technology and is rapidly expanding its use of renewable energy, including wind and solar power. It's also expanding its energy network at a rate equivalent to the UK's entire power output each year. As we know, CHNS are already selling wind and solar pwoer energy storage systems, and are producing electric bike batteries and researching electric car power systems. CHNS also supply to the expanding nuclear industry. And if China succeed to any extent in tieing up portions of the world's oil and gas reserves and rare earth minerals, then CHNS will be in prime position to exploit this as the Chinese market leader. CHNS have over 100 patents, are introducing lithium-ion batteries etc etc in relation to electric car and bike batteries. The Chinese government has said that renewable energy will account for 15% of energy consumption by 2020. Only a small proportion of this business will do wonders for CHNS. All of this is in the current price for free given the successful core telecoms
Thanks for the link. It is useful to get the possible negatives thrown into the mix as undoubtedly most of the boards have a confirmation bias (the majority wanting/wishing the price to rise, not fall). Having read the article I am left with the impression its a 'bears defecate in the woods' story. The author may well prove to be correct in their call but I can't particularly see why Chinese companies should be singled out over any others. Any company can go tits up at any time even when it all looks hunky dory on paper (remember Enron) - so yes this scenario is a possibility, just as it is with every other share in existence. Better regulation doesn't mean elimination of risk...the last 2 years have reminded us of this. Everyone is entiltled to their opinion. Mine, for what little its worth is that this company is making the right product, in a good market and seems to offer reasonable value. That guarantees Sweet FA but it looks marginally better than some others. Only time will tell I guess. Lets see if the promise of the end of year divi turns up and see what effect that has on the price. I'm holding on for now. I'm probably bias but thought the article was too!
Interesting article : http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/investing-strategy/2009/11/03/china-and-the-bigger-fool-theory.aspx .
Now this should get people excited. Remember that Jiangsu Shuangdeng are CHNS' main operating subsidiary. CHNS' is up this morning, yet is still on a P/E of just 4.5. Having such growth prospects for its core telecoms business with all its other potential in wind power, solar power, electric cars and bikes etc in for free is just ridiculous imo. This article from last week talks about the huge potential for energy storage systems in wind power, solar power etc - $14.6 billion by 2015 in China alone. And the article (well worth a read) concludes: http://news.alibaba.com/article/detail/business-in-china/100182807-1-pent-up-power.html "Pent-up power Published: 13 Oct 2009 09:02:01 PST" "The off-grid market is government oriented, Chen noted, and predictably government recommended brands such as Zhejiang Tianneng and Jiangsu Shuangdeng have a greater advantage over others."
rivaldo's post 7961 on ADVFN is a good read and SCSW recommending this as a sell! ...... not the best advice IMO. But as it has been pointed out to me recently "hello hacker" ...... WTFDIK? CMSH ...... nice today also :)
.Can i suggest you look at your post of 28th april and see what a storming 2nd half of the year chino shoto had last year for cash generation.
All these companies with poor operating cash flows are making placings. RCG today, GNG recently, CHNS next ? The market is being rough on them, and so it should really, its to be expected really and any posters attempting to "hype and ramp" them up on revenues is misleading people I think.
operating cash flow should be looked at over 12 months as the business looks cyclycal,so taking it over 6 months would give a false impression.
Errr...look at operating cashflow. How much cash was generated by operations at the interims........answer none, as cash flowed out of the business, not into it. Look at the consolidated cash flows statement.
can you support you statements with any facts?.The statements and accounts suggest otherwise.