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What it does confirm is, CHAR are NOT in a closed period so very least I would expect other directors to buy, even if it's not £100k a pop !
aimo & dyor
Smyth11, I was just wondering who’d be first prick to come on whinging about this. You seldom disappoint!
Directors are duty bound to notify EVERY individual purchase as they happen. This may (or may not) be the first of several from him (and others) over a period of time, as even directors of AIM companies doesn’t always have a £100k sitting around to buy shares with to try and appease idiots like you. Utter 🤡
That is actually laughable that RNS. If this is what AP was alluring too then what a joke. No doubt we will get some spin on here saying it shows that they have confidence in the company putting in their own cash🥱🥱🥱
Nm
Lol, yeah, cos with a takeover now, some of them would stand to make a whopping £10-£20k pre tax profit on their new shares 🤦🥴
Chariot is one of the few aim companies to have agreed terms with a fantastic experienced partner who has drilled very successful wells already in the Eastern Med.
If people are so upset with the share price they should sell -
In 3-6 months it will be a lot higher with positive drills expected
The offer for a takeover that was rejected, may be reviewed now as a missed opportunity. Particularly by the BOD with their increased holdings. What price now?
Thanks Jimmy. That is good to know… though it still leaves me (and you!) puzzled about the reason behind the low price. The bit about re-risking I got from reading others’ posts elsewhere, so it may be a widely-held misconception - were many PIs pinning their hopes on a fantastic deal with no further hurdles to go, and bailed out when that didn’t happen?
I hope it’s mostly down to a big seller needing the cash to cover some other liability, but who knows…
N1 it is fair value maybe not in your opinion but SP is only as good as the market and lack of II’s decide it is.
It is very simple but too many deny what it is.
I’m not saying it will be this low long term but neither can anyone say it won’t. The deal has obviously cast many doubts and uncertainly so I cannot see much upside anytime soon unless it’s an engineered rise for whatever reason. IMO.
Clausewitz,
At the back of the corporate presentation is a schematic of the zones to be tested and the equivalent flow rates from small reservoirs tested in the same geology onshore.
The gas is there as it’s been audited , sampled and pressures taken. However, there are four different gas water contacts and I expect different pressure regimes, the flow testing will provide the definitive information for the production completions, with each of the three wells modelled at being able to produce 100 to 200 mmcf per day, so achieving a field production of 200 mmcf per day is very achievable with considerable extra capacity.
With regard to onshore, I believe it to be very low risk with reservoirs already identified by drilled wells at least 10 meters, with four wells at 1.1 mmcf per meter per day yielding gross production of 44 mmcf per day, at minimum 8 mmcf for power Gen its a strong cashflow generator, quickly.
The current share price values the onshore about correctly and puts nil value for offshore.
Bonkers.
Jimmy
Considering how many sells today the price has held up well.The actual number of sells is quite small.Once buyers come in the price will jump.There is no reason for this share to be around 4p cheaper than two weeks ago and with all the good news it should have already be trading at a premium to its price of two weeks ago.Maybe it might start to spike in the morning
£20m Company ?? = ridiculous. Scalped, indeed. I don't think you are serious.
(Cont.)
5. Green / hydrogen etc. distraction
This is a big one for me - investing in South African energy infrastructure (and with a focus on renewables of all things) seems crazy given what I know of the place - transformers being ripped apart for copper wire and the like. In any case, surely the main effort should be on Anchois which could then generate cash for other ventures, rather than running off and starting new international Del Boy schemes. It feels the company is always trying to bite off more than it can chew, and the discovery at Anchois was just a lucky fluke which is not getting the care it deserves.
6. Re-emergent risk
The new deal really hinges on the flow test going through (which we were previously told was not necessary) and Anchois being all they have claimed it is when they revisit it. Thi seemed to make sense to me but I would have thought that this would be the case whatever the deal; if the gas doesn't flow in the right quantities then goodbye revenue from Char's share and goodbye accordingly high share prices. Perhaps this was the reason for a lack of a big jump in price on the deal.
That's all I can think of at the moment. I'm not trying to deramp, I am just genuinely confused as to why this share is not doing better and want to make sure I'm not missing something obvious.
Why is Chariot at so low (and falling) a price? I am in Helium One and the last week or so has been a lesson in not being greedy / out of my depth, so I really want to make sure that Chariot is not going to go the same way or anything like it. It seems to me that CHAR should be doing great (I topped up on the morning of the Energen deal), and I am not comfortable with things being so out of kilter with my own expectations.
Here are my thoughts - please tell me why I am wrong / how things will improve / reply with your own ideas.
1. Automated trades keeping the price down
I'm not an expert in how this is done, but I've seen many posters complaining that CHAR is being targeted using this method. If this is the main reason for the low price then I suppose it is preferable to others, as the people behind the ATs will allow the price to rise eventually once they've had their fill of tree-shaken shares (unless they are priming things for a lowball takeover).
2. High expectations for the possible partner were disappointed
With lots of PIs dreaming of Total or another major coming in, the appearance of a relative unknown killed the buzz. The Israeli connection introduces a potential issue (but if the Moroccans are fine with it now I don't think this is too significant)
3. Confusing deal
I don't have the vocabulary to understand many of the aspects of the deal (possibly a sign that I should sell out now), and tbh even the bits I do 'get' are hard to convert into share value. Other analysts have said it's a good deal though, certainly underrated: https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/12/07/chariot-s-transformational-farm-out-is-underrated/ But I cannot believe that the company is worth less with a confirmed deal, than it was in the long period of uncertainty leading up to it.
4. Awful communication from the BoD / Execs
Possibly due to confidentiality clauses during the negotiations - but there should have been a lot more PR after the deal. Not drumming up the share price through PR makes future raises more expensive, and leaves us vulnerable to the kind of stuff that just hit Helium One.
Has anyone ever seen an analysts forecast on a company’s SP ever come to fruition on success?
Jimmy. Can you give us an example that could give us some confidence going forwards?
With respect and thanks in advance.
Hi sailplane
Great summary.
I would just add.
Sound energy drilled and logged lnb 2 and lmb 1 which both found approx 10 meters of high quality reservoir and reported such sand were identified through out the 3 d seismic area.
Based on average flow rate of 1.1 mmcf per day per meter for the onshore rharb basin that results in a combined flow rate of 44 mmcf per day for four wells, at $10 per mcf and per SDX an opex of $0.9 per mcf. Obviously need to connect to the pipeline to get to market, but that’s very fundable.
Average success rate for onshore the basin is 80 to 85%
So the current share price reflects a success case for onshore and there is a possibility of a deeper 300 meters of reservoir found in the area also.
Jimmy
Ian Fear. My sentiment exactly. I had no hope for GCM and high hopes for Char. Char now a longer term than GCM for some return. If ever!
You have bought in at the right time on GCM imo. Although highly likely Hasina will be serving the next term it seems unless it’s an engineered rise that there may have been a wink to mine Phulbari?
It’s AIM… roll the dice !
We'll possibly never find out what is going on. But you (Energean) don't risk £10m plus another £15m soon, plus a lot more in development costs to first gas unless you have done due diligence and are happy you are buying into something good.
The 2 x 6%ers similarly should have known what they were doing. Lots of chat on here about them offloading which is bringing the share price down, but we don't know that is what's happening. The sp didn't go up much when they bought so why go down the drain now?
This is only a small Company and the sp can move up or down quickly. Could be buying options for the sp to go up and these mature so have to backed up with cash. If they haven't gone up in the time allowed the gamblers have to sell at a distressed price which pushes sp lower. Sentiment is so important and becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy when selling starts. Buy when others are selling (especially when no bad news has been broadcast).
I have GCM - up nearly 200% in 3 weeks on some not exactly overwhelming news.
If I wasn't full of Char shares I'd pile in now to this Company at this price with a proven asset in such demand and now with a partner which can sort it out.
I am not ramping, just agreeing with the sentiment on here and also puzzled as to why we are at 10p !!
Also worth considering that it's highly probable that they may find upside in that area when they drill in Q1..
I do wonder if the seller (assuming it is a single seller) has another agenda that has driven the aggressive exit here... it makes little sense to exit right now, who knows - Fund timings, Recent COP round, Shared listing of the new operator (Energean), etc ..
Time will tell
DYOR
You need to do some reading Zibbo
What? Was was the last raise for?
Hi Sailplane, when you write "let's say 30% net" are you referring to a dividend payment to shareholders? or what?
Funding for what, Zebbo?
That said debt funding could be the next step here
Is my guess, but I could be wide of the mark. Raise before the drill bit turns?