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If Energean elect to proceed and acquire the further 10% of Anchois, Chariot will receive one of the following:
I. 5-year, $50 million of convertible loan notes with a GBP20 strike price and 0% coupon; or
II. 3 million Energean plc shares, issued immediately upon exercise of the option but subject to
a lock-up period until the earlier of first gas and 3 years post FID
If they opted for the non-lock in period of 3 million Energean shares (currently valued at $36 million) they could, in theory, immediately sell them and pay back a chunk of the $170 million in carried cost early. Interestingly, these shares also come with a 10% dividend.
It's a blood bath here. When price barely moved higher on FO new day, my alarm bells started blaring and within minutes on open I had sold taking only a couple of percentage hit. However, the opportunity cost of being in here instead of JSE, cost me 50 percent profit - had a wanted a quick 2 bagger here than was going to stick it all into JSE, but that rally happened just too a bit too early. I don't see an imminent catalyst here so like JOG, I'm don't plan to trade this until a long while. Good luck to long term holders here who I'm sure will do well in the end.
This is the interesting bit for me. It's really clear from the analysts reports and Chariots presentations that they think there is a lot of gas here - as in a lot and management have bet (with their own shares) that developing it will give the best outcome. I think the market will cotton onto this..
While Chariot has taken dilution, we believe we are unlocking a potentially much larger development than initially thought, with significant further upside.
The analysts prices of 71 and 67, barely factor in the massive TCF upside from 'cross area reads.'
Also worth nothing that broader Rissana isnt dilutable through the optionality, only Lixus. If they prove the gas, then the share should rise rapidly
With Loukos between now and then and an oversold bounce to come..
DYOR
SP reaction has little to do with absent flowtests. Reservoir quality is excellent with excellent porosity. Flowtesting is more of a formality at Anchois.
The terms for this great farm out deal are dependent on the next drill. This is what the market doesn't like. Is the read-through data going to be as accurate as everyone thinks? Next drill will confirm as it's in a different location.
Https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/12/oil-price-kistos-reabold-chariot-and-finally/
Oh, btw, the rebound is equally enjoyable after exhaustion of seller!
CoolMax, I assume this is the first time you've been in a company where a distressed seller has shown their colours? It's not my first. There could be a host of reasons why seller has triggered the sale, but I'm banking on the fact they wanted to be out on a deal being procured so they could sell on volume. How much have they got left? No one knows until a TR1 manifests itself, so I'm sure it won't be long now!
Either-way this gives us an opportunity to take avail of the cheapness as I honestly believe the value on the market cap is currently VERY undervalued and will be much bigger as soon as the seller is done feeding the stock into the market.
I think they have only them selves to blame, so myself for not thinking through the consequences, for not having done flow tests!
Not having done these test they have left open question marks regarding how quick , and capex we need for a substantial flow rate!
Hence the price of the extra 10% is relative high compared to the first 45%.
Unfortunately I was not available for the question time but having listened to it, it seems there was no question raised regarding the 37.5% give away for the further resanna license and how this will be funded and in the future!
Do we need several years of cash flow first to be able to support this project.
Ap mentioned something about giving money back to the shareholders but looking at his history of timelines that doesn’t bode well!
Ask if there was an offer made for the whole company, he said yes, unfortunately there was no indication of a valuation (share price!). The offer would also not been a real offer since that would have been subject to rns…..
Still holding and hoping that the onshore drills come in and we get an income stream since the money we get from the deal is really not that great, that will have run out before 2026……
After that, I believe the news of the flow rates and then the FID will be the catalyst for the share price.
For now, hopefully it steadies ……
2024 is the new 2023 for Chars timeline keeping and promising…..
If this price keeps going next few days, we will know this was a horrible deal and the reason market is punishing us. They kept shareholders over a year with promises and this is how they reward share holder value with further waiting, don't make sense.
When are they going to drill offshore and onshore. We need dates
Yes, all rather silly.
At a basic level, if you take Cash in the Bank, pretty much the minimum lump sums from the deal, plus the promised back costs up to FID and The seismic costs for Rissana, that must be close to 50% of our current Market Cap 😂🤦
Char now valued at 115m, we have gas, we have a partner, we have funding and an upcoming drill program, what am I missing? Short termism? Conflict of interests from shareholders and partner? Lack of understanding of the partner deal? Enhanced feeling of risk?
Brokers notes all state partner deal is good fit
Char always keeps me guessing!
I.M.O Seller distressed or otherwise, BUT market makers will take full advantage of the situation. When done, it'll climb back to 14/15p and then north as we enter Q1 2024 and closer to High CoS gas drill!
I.M.O. Market makers shaking the tree?
Perhaps people not liking the risk of partner asset close to war zone?
Like everyone I am surprised by the reaction to what looks like a pretty good farmdown. Without a partner we were going nowhere so I am delighted to see a deal done.
I have taken advantage of this drop to add to my ISA position. I may kcic myslef for jumping in too early but I am happy that in the mid-term (2-3 years) I'll be reaping the reward.
GLA
AJ
Yup - a crazy reaction to an announcement that CHAR has partnered with a top-class and experienced O&G company!
Proves that AIM is a Las Vegas on speed!
I sincerely hope not Nick,as IMO it will struggle to even break back to even the lows of 14s we have been stuck at for such a long time. I have a feeling the next RNS is in regards a 6% now being the seller cause if its not bloody hell,they cant or probably wont hang about if this gets any lower..😒😒
Could we see single figures today? Honestly can’t believe what I’m seeing. Let’s not pretend that anyone expected this.
You have to laugh - utter madness!
Double posts too by the looks of it! lol
I always keep an eye out for a double bottom ..... ;-)
I always an eye out for a double bottom ..... ;-)
Well free'd up some cash early doors... and just picked up 25% more here, left some dry powder and will watch today if any lower to pick up a few more. Christmas Sales! Don't u just love 'em!!
Surety,wont be today then as seller is out in force this morning. Surely this cant sustain to fall at this rate we are going to be a single digit SP😒😒