Member Info for Clausewitz

We all have to start somewhere JVIP. SmTch73, those are my thoughts too but I would like to see some evidence that the production of this stuff can be economical at scale. The promotional materials push the quality/ethics aspects of the product, but they're notably quiet about the price point.

JVIP - I think drawing attention to the viability of the long-term business strategy is a better use of these boards than giving minute-by-minute sp updates and uncritical copy-pastes of AI summaries. I think the focus on the auction misses the real action- the T-Rex bag is a catwalk item, and God knows LVMH etc. don't make their profits off high fashion, it's from sales in the more mainstream (but still premium) goods sector for which these events serve as a shop front display. Greater awareness of this possibility is what will keep the sp healthy, not speculating on one-off publicity stunts which are already getting promoted elsewhere.

Consider also that the constant one-line ramping gives this share a bad image - I want to make an investment (and encourage others to invest long-term) in a company which has a sustainable, scalable (heh) business model, not to throw my cash into what looks like a pump-and-dump trader's share and hope to get out before the music stops. It also pushes genuinely informative posts (of which you've made plenty yourself) down into obscurity.

I think the handbag is more of a publicity stunt / 'concept car' equivalent, I don't think the big money is going to be in dino leather (it is at the end of the day not actually real T-Rex hide). I imagine the real business is in 'standard' bio-fabricated leather (check their consumer-facing website, lab-grown-leather dot com). If it turns out to be cheaper than the real thing and just as good, the link with the high fashion T-Rex bag will put the concept in peoples' minds and possibly overcome the reluctance to try something new. The important thing is, can it be produced relatively quickly in scale - and how much of the cost is one-off R&D, as opposed to expensive raw materials / manufacturing requirements? If it is anything like an industrial fermentation process, the potential is huge, but if it were that simple we would have had it already.

£1m for the bag is silly... I'd be surprised (and happy) with low six figures.

Nothing is ever certain - I’ve been in a few resource shares where success seemed a foregone conclusion but in fact it was the promise of multibags which made the forums (and me) make unrealistic judgements. Some good drill results do not guarantee anything, and until proper resource estimates, feasibility studies etc are made the sp will seem undervalued to someone whose belief in the company is based on daydreams of how great life would be if it works out (my mistake with Helium One). And even a real success can fall through for financial reasons and backroom skullduggery (I was in Solgold too).

That said, I’ve had my fingers burned enough times to recognise when I’m fooling myself and this looks as good an opportunity as I’ve seen. Good jurisdiction, a general sense of military buildup worldwide providing sustained demand (possibly for uses nuclear energy too), a competent team driving things on at the site, and great economics even with a super-conservative assumption on tungsten prices. It’s not risk-free (and I think a lot of you are secretly believing that it is) but I am v optimistic. Just don’t be disappointed when it fails to hit 30p a share in a month - it will take time to provide the certainty big valuations are based on.

When was it at £115m? I don't mean to deramp, but I can't find info to substantiate that valuation - though given the amount of investment they claim to have put into the port, it isn't necessarily unbelievable. I do wish there was a mcap graph along with the share price.

I'm in and hoping for a few bags on this, but it's mcap not share price which should be used to compare to past performance. I've asked Grok to find the mcap back in September 2021 (just after a consolidation) and it came up with a figure of £14.94 million. SP back then was 36p, but there were only 41.5m shares in issue - today there are 356.31m.

If the news is good the upside will be excellent, but don't let yourselves get blinded by the ££s in your eyes...

(https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtNA_4c867086-3bba-49b5-b870-4de82d7af2a2)

Is there any estimate out there on how much Raglan might produce? Nothing specific mentioned in presentations and RNSs.

Thanks for the informative posts, Mining. Have you made any projections re MBO’s possible mcap if this all comes off?

I think a 30% fall is way overdone. I’ve been in similar situations with other shares and that kind of drop happens when one of your oil drills hits a duster or a parliament withholds permission for a development. Tim was silly / being a chancer to have a 2025 target… If we have cash to last a year and the patent clock is running, surely the negotiating technique to use is to play hard-to-get, not desperate.

Positive case - Tim underestimated the timing, is now playing bidders off against each other. No reason for the dip apart from sentiment / suspicion/ panic.

Negative case - not enough credible interest, or a weak negotiating position (given IMM’s cash in hand - might this suggest that results were less impressive than advertised to us?)

The RNS mentions some top ten pharmas were interested, but not that they are among the ones still in talks. Can they reveal they are involved in one but not the other? If the big boys haven’t bitten, why? This last point gives me most concern.

I’m tending towards this being overblown but it has been a massive unforced error at best. If they don’t keep to such a cast-iron commitment on deal-making, it’s understandable if people call b****** on dilution and funding promises and have the sp suffer accordingly.

Manifesto - you were right about there being a placing, and anyyone halfway familiar in investing in AIM should have seen it coming (like I didn't... Blinded by greed). But no need to lean into the 'heel' role here, people need to be exposed to the other side of the argument and 'I told you so' is just going to put them back to reading the '5p by CLOSE!!!' ramps. Not that anyone here owes anyone else good advice...

I don't think a retrace is likely though; 1.25p is a very good price considering how low the sp has been recently, and now everyone will believe themselves free of dilution worries for the foreseeable future. Also, it does suggest that the takers are confident they'll get a bigger profit in future (but no doubt much has already been forward-sold).

Also, why on earth do you format your posts like some kind of haiku? It's almost as bad as capitailising every other word for poor readability.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush... It'll be a matter of risk management - they need to guarantee cash on hand while they have the opportunity. In any case the people doing the raise will have other was of getting cheap shares (warrants etc., not that I've checked the RNSs for them though), so it's an easy choice for them.

I don't think you can read anything into it, besides the fact that they're taking advantage of a rise in sp to get a better deal than they could have done a month ago. Every AIM share I've been in which bagged in a short time has had a raise immediately afterward.

The price is going up rather strangely today - almost in a straight line on the graph, especially between 10:20-11:20... Wishbone, another resources share getting publicity atm, is up and down like a yo-yo. Does this hint at some institutional buys gradually being fed in here? the rise seems too 'clean' for a PI hype / traders' stock...

SkintAl- there were about 170m shares back in June 2021; now we are at 2.59bn. Wishbone is actually currently at a higher Mcap than it was back then (£37 vs £31m).

News, it is trivial to give the link to the post in a way which will get round the LSE filter; i.e. hotcopper dot com.au/threads/west-dome-underground-raising-telfers-production-to-650koz.8711450/page-38?post_id=80361859 - which reads:

"Yabbadabbadoo!!!

IF the assay results stack up.."

Also, the post relating the guy's 45 years of experience (hotcopper dot com.au/threads/west-dome-underground-raising-telfers-production-to-650koz.8711450/page-46?post_id=80365255) is all about his bearish take on GGP (the company we hope to emulate) "I would rather not be holding GGP shares until I see delivery on the dream. There are plenty of other less risky gold mining investments in which to put one's money." Did you not think quoting VERBATIM the WHOLE POST was necessary in this case?

I am still optimistic that this share will do well, but I'd rather get some balanced analysis from this board without every decent post being crowded out by your incoherent ramping.

‘Hotcopper dot com.au/search/4833181’ is how you can link to things here, news.

I don’t want to be rude regarding your use of capitalisation (I’m a teacher and am well aware of dyslexia etc.) but it is exasperating. More importantly, though, I was thoroughly ticked off to waste 30 mins of my time trying to locate those posts and find that you deliberately reformatted the original text: ‘IF the assays stack up’ to: ‘if the ASSAYS stack up’. The difference in emphasis is obvious and the obscurity of your ‘linking’ indicates that you are intentionally trying to mislead us.

I’m filtering you now and suggest others do too.

HL is fine - some annoyances but I’m sure all platforms have their quirks. I have junior ISAs there for my kids, but as far as I am aware you need to have an account on there yourself to link them to.

*Nothing* is certain about this or any other share, and anyone saying so should not be trusted with their own money, let alone yours, or either is a ramper looking to do you over. RNSs are not agenda-free either, they are there to put any facts in the best possible light for the company.

Every share I have been in which has had this level of hysterical ramping (however ‘justified’) has cost me big. Advance Energy’s duster was preceded by multi-pound targets and promises that the drill was virtually a dead-cert - ‘champagne on ice’ was the phrase used by the short-lived CEO. Helium One practically wiped me out (but I was lucky to jump back in when it went from rock-bottom to showing a flicker of life). Manifesti, Lesh etc may be trying to undermine things but equally they could be prudently looking at both sides of things, and all we’ve got on here otherwise is blue-sky thinking on steroids.

I am heavily invested here, but am nervous rather than excited most of the time - I have learned that daydreaming about what your ISA will look like at 30p, 50p, £1 etc. is the fastest way to the poorhouse. I do think that the massive buys (if that is what they are) probably indicate a leak of good news, but I’ll be worrying myself until it is confirmed.

Is it likely to be a buy? The buys around 16:04 were 16p or over, sells were below - like this, at 15.75. I imagine there is a lot of profit taking / traders getting out before the bell in the last half hour so I’m not too concerned if it was a sell.

It's worth looking over AndyPap's valuation again - I'm not in a position to verify his figures re. typical rates / percentage deductions etc., but I'm inclined to trust them. The one number I am more conservative about is the contract price, which I have in my head as $8 per MMBCF (based on 15% of the current crude price, ~$60 per barrel) as opposed to $11.95. This leads to an NPV of £40.18 million, i.e. ~7x upside to the current mcap. To be honest I suspect Andy's figure is more realistic, given how reasonable the rest of his calculation is and his greater grasp of the subject overall. I'm just wary of indulging in any fantasising over big numbers and tend to assume AIM minnows like us will be shafted at some point in the process.

I have to say I am a lot more confident in EMP's prospects after going into this in more depth. Just don't hold out for a 20-bagger!

_____

A summary of my detailed 14:36 post from Saturday 25th July which factored in all valuation drivers: gas price, resource size, PSC terms, capex/opex, taxation, risk discounting for 2C resources, and appropriate financial discounting. Read that post if you want the reasoning behind my figures.

1. Gross Resource and Revenue Estimates

• Total recoverable 2C resource (gross): 376 Bcf

• Empyrean’s 8.5% share: 31.96 Bcf

• Assumed gas price: US$11.95/MMBtu (based on June 25 ICP average)

• Gross field revenue: US$4.49 billion

• Empyrean's pre-PSC revenue share: US$382 million

________________________________________

2. Production Sharing Contract (PSC) Adjustment

• Typical Indonesian PSC structure:

o Cost recovery cap: 70% of gross revenue

o Profit gas split: 65% to government, 35% to contractors

• Empyrean’s adjusted share post-PSC: 6.29% of gross = US$282 million

________________________________________

3. Cost and Tax Assumptions

• Opex: US$1.00/Mcf → US$31.96 million

• CapEx (net): US$2.00/Mcf → US$63.9 million (may be conservative due to pipeline support from PLN)

• Total project costs: US$95.9 million

• Net revenue post-costs: US$282m – US$95.9m = US$186.1 million

• Indonesian tax (22%): US$40.9 million

• Net after-tax cashflow: US$145.2 million

________________________________________

4. Risk Adjustment

• Contingent resource status (2C) with GSA signed, pre-FID

• Industry-standard risk factor for this stage: 85%

• Risk-adjusted value: US$123.4 million

________________________________________

5. Discounting to Present Value

• Production window: 2027–2036 (10 years; GSA to Jan 2037)

• Annual average cash flow: US$12.34 million

• Discount rate (pre-FID SE Asia standard): 11%

• Net Present Value (NPV): US$80.67 million

________________________________________

6. Valuation Per Share

• GBP conversion (rate: 1.343): £60.06 million

• Shares in issue (post-raise): 5,719,672,441

• Value per share: 1.05p

• Current sh

Eddy - the valuation all depends on the price agreed. The ChatGPT outline on this aspect actually seems pretty reasonable - the lower price is in line with the natgas spot price, mid-price is in line with Brent-linked LNG price (approx 15% the price of a barrel of crude per million BTUS of gas). What we don’t know are the deductions which will come from tax, capex share etc etc…the AI estimate seems very conservative on this (90% deducted!) but I have no idea what the standard is for such deals. In any case the mid-price estimate is £19.85m which is almost 4x the current mcap, and companies are valued at multiples of assets/earnings (indeed EMP is losing money and has negative asset vs liability value yet it is considered to be worth ~£5m)

I’ve not got a firm understanding of EMP’s debt but let’s use the £10.7m from the balance sheet. I’m not well-versed enough to know how to incorporate this into an mcap calculation though.

So I’m confident there is big upside here, but perhaps not the double-digit bags others are salivating over.

Say what you like about PP - he is being abrasive - but I have been burned before on shares (specifically Advance Energy, which was operating in the same region as Empyrean) which were far too optimistically touted around these boards, and I think getting some perspective with a bit of substance from the other side is useful (not the case with another poster here, whom I have muted). PP is particularly correct in pointing out that many 'rampy' comments reveal a lot of ignorance of the mechanics of share trading and valuation (forward selling, MM shenanigans, discount rates etc). Frankly, I'm tired of reading about the sp being set to burst, then checking my account to find it's still at .010-.011p.

I'm invested here - 10m shares, and none bought before the big jump. I want this to succeed and thought it a no-brainer, but it is concerning to see that the value is not shifting. Let's be devil's advocate:

Potential issues:

- EMP's track record has been pretty awful up to now sp-wise. CEO does not seem to be admired, at least here.

- Presentations, research notes etc. completely absent since 2021, again does not point to a well-run outfit.

- Outstanding debts etc. need to be factored in to the valuation, along with the ongoing disagreement with _____. Some here are certain that this is not an issue but there is nothing in the RNS's about it being settled, and if it was I'm sure the company would make a noise about it.

- We seem to be missing the point that the resources are 2C contingent. There is plenty of time between now and the actual sign-on-the-dotted-line agreement for things to go wrong. For instance, a peace deal w Russia - natural gas price falls?

- According to Conrad in a Feb '25 presentation, capital expenditure will be $323m. 8.5% of that is ~$27m, to deduct from the positive side of the valuation (presumably EMP would have to pay this in some way).

On the other hand, to address a few of PP's points:

- Conrad has gone from from 0.6 to ~0.8 AUD after the announcement - a 33% increase, not the 4% you claim. Where did you get that figure from?

- The £1m placing is a sensible move, even if the company truly doesn't 'need' the money right now. As you have said earlier yourself, MMs can pressure the company to raise by artificially suppressing sp, and there is still time to go before the deal is inked. Certainly this could be a misjudgement, but I don't know of many exploration companies which would not do a placing after a quintupling of their sp... As for Kelly, I am sure he will not lack for warrants etc. if all goes well - a placing is no skin off his nose.

- What calculations have gotten you to a $15m sale price? I've done some guesstimating myself but I can't come near that figure.