Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Wrong or right Coolmax the markets determine whether investors make money or not.
It’s harsh.
Some chunky buys in the last half hour. SP recovering from -23% to -13%. Where will we end up?
Whimax, I do believe there are some big sellers in the background with heavy manipulation to bring the price lower, we will find out in the next few days, don't believe this is such a bad deal, just longer wait, market can always be wrong
This drop reminds of the days when we had dusters.
BDC
I totally agree with you but can you explain what is going on with SP. It seems ludicrous.
I have never been this stumped.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
This happy clapper is trying to buy as much as he can around the 11p mark 😀 👏 👏 👏
A market cap of cira £110 Million makes absolutely no sense. Just 1 producing onshore well is worth 3x more than this and they have 3 of them lined up for drilling in early 2024.
Couple this with a successful drill of Anchois East and you get another $850 million. For £110 Million
Downside is limited. Upside is asymmetric. 😀
👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏
Wouldn’t they be more likely to drop the price like this if they had a large Buy order to fill? How would they possibly fill a big buy order in a rising market on a day of excellent news, if everyone else is trying to buy too. Especially if it was at a pre agreed price! 🤷🏻♂️
At one point Orcadian were up ~50%, guess CHAR helped balance the LSE scales....
Agreed. However, the MMs would only drop the price like this if a big sell order had been placed. It could be for all sorts of reasons but must have thought today was the best day to dump. Perhaps they are disappointed that they haven't managed to sell into a rise.
Watch the professionals buy back….
I have re-read the RNS a dozen. This is an excellent deal. But I give to on this market. I don't understand LSE any more.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Hope they buy bucket loads ...
Hope directors will buy some shares to restore the confidence
Nickshaw, I don’t accept that the market “doesn’t like the deal”. I’ll have to agree to disagree with those who say it doesn’t, but a drop of 20%, on this volume, with this number of buys v sells, just doesn’t add up. I may be proved wrong and a huge sell may appear after hours, but 1 person/Insti offloading still doesn’t mean “the market doesn’t like the deal” imo, it just means they want to sell, for whatever reason, and are using today to do it.
On the face of it, and at this point in time, there a pre 2m more buys than sells today.
Wonder if that 3m sell at 10.5p was pretty much the last of his offload, a hefty lump, hopefully get rid of him and get back to a move upward lol
Must be the first Aim company is history after signing a farm in partnership deal it lost more than 20%, does not make sense.
Back to March 2022's SP, at time of RNS for Post-Well Analysis on Significant Gas Discovery at Anchois-2 Well that Confirms excellent quality dry gas and significant increase in net gas pay.... unbelievable !!
FH,
Who knows what the average of the "100k" chunks seller is, he could very easily have single digit average, as some will have here, and with such a likely substantial holding, you need volume to get it away.
Personally I don't care about today and the reaction, it has provided me with a chance to accumulate more at a price I didn't expect to see, and others will have done the same.
Tomorrow is another day, focusing on a day like this can simply put the head in overdrive and result in making poor decisions. The deal looks pretty decent to me, better than I expected, and now we simply wait it out, plenty of activity coming with high news flow rate.
Whimax I love your enthusiasm for this share and I really do hope you're right but as I type this we were 23.3% down (although appreciate its bouncing about a lot). I think Veteran is bang on. The market doesn't like the deal because it pushes first gas back to 2026 and still leaves significant risks between now and then.
This level of selling makes little sense. There were 40 other interested parties and imagine some of them may have loaded up here expecting to get the deal. On the news they may have decided to sell up on a high volume day.
Big seller looks like a fund - if you can hold and top up this is pretty much the lows I don’t see 7/8 p and if this happens great time to buy and average in company will have cash in next couple of months and drilling more gas -
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
Don't focus on short-term swings in price. Focus on the underlying value of your investment which is de risked. If the company is bought out you will be kicking yourself!
And carnage IF I STAYED IN BE 1000 DOWN LUCKY I LOST 130 ONLY
CoolMax, in your opinion, what is it that the “market does not like” about the deal?
IMO, there is nothing NOT to like.
The conclusion:
“ Clearly, the farm-out transaction fell short of the expectations of some investors as Chariot’s share price fell 15 per cent from 13.7p to 11.6p following the announcement. The share price is also below the 14.75p level when I assessed the farm-out possibilities (‘Chariot could soon announce a 'game-changing' deal’, 20 September 2023), albeit the holding has still delivered a 282 per cent gain in my 2017 Bargain Shares Portfolio.
It’s a very harsh reaction. That’s because Cavendish’s total risked valuation per share of 57.7p for the company is not only five times the current share price, but it rises to 71p assuming Energean exercises its option to acquire a further 10 per cent stake. This highlights the value embedded in the Anchois gas project and which Energean has clearly recognised. So, although the initial reaction to the news is disappointing, expect the heavily oversold shares to bounce when the dust settles. Hold.”
Chariot’s transformational farm-out is underrated
The fall in the company’s share price is a harsh reaction to what looks a good farm-out of its flagship gas project
December 7, 2023
Energean acquires stakes in Lixus and Rissana licences
Option to purchase a further 10 per cent interest
Chariot’s share price falls 15 per cent on news
Chariot (CHAR:11.6p), the Africa focused transitional energy group, has announced a farm-out agreement with Energean (ENOG:995p). The transaction covers its Lixus Offshore licence, which holds the company’s flagship Anchois gas development project, and the nearby Rissana offshore licence in Morocco. Energean is a £1.8bn market capitalisation FTSE 250 company that has a proven track record of successfully developing large offshore gas projects.
The agreement provides funding for both Chariot and the Anchois gas project through upfront consideration, deferred consideration and potentially a full carry to first gas. There is potential to upscale the development and target further exploration prospectivity across the two licences, too.
Energean is acquiring 45 per cent and 37.5 per cent interests in the Lixus and Rissana licences, respectively, to take operatorship. It reduces Chariot’s stakes to 30 per cent (Lixus) and 37.5 per cent (Rissana) with Moroccan state company National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines maintaining a 25 per cent stake in each licence. In return, Chariot will receive $10mn on completion of the transaction; $15mn on Final Investment Decision (FID); and has an $85mn gross carry that covers its Lixus costs up to FID, including the additional Anchois well being drilled, which will have a gas flow test in 2024.
Following completion of the Anchois well, Energean has the right to acquire a further 10 per cent of Chariot's equity in the Lixus licence for an $850mn gross development carry to first gas; $50mn five-year zero coupon convertible loan note with a strike price of 2,000p or by issuing 3mn Energean shares; and 7 per cent royalty payment on Energean's gas production revenues in excess of a base hurdle on the realised gas price (post transportation costs).
Analyst James McCormack at house broker Cavendish values Chariot’s retained 30 per cent interest in the project at $476mn (35p) on an unrisked basis, or $310mn (23p) on a risked basis using a 65 per cent commercial chance of success. Assuming Energean exercises its option to acquire an additional 10 per cent in Lixus, Cavendish values the 20 per cent fully carried interest at $595mn (risked) or $447mn (unrisked), using a higher 75 per cent commercial chance of success (due to the lower financial risk and result of the Energean carry). This implies a valuation of 29p (risked) to 44p (unrisked).