Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
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It's not a pleasing sign to see the investments go down the drain. Thought they have hit the bottom few months ago around 100p, but looks like this is in a relentless downward trend. With the likelihood of a fall in gold prices in the short term, i suspect 82P target looks a possibility.
Major stock indexes traded below the flatline premarket on Monday as concerns regarding the renewed surge in coronavirus cases weighed on investors' optimism. The British government said that it will not make green passes mandatory to access crowded spaces. European Commission's Valdis Dombrovskis stated that all members of the EU are expected to return to pre-pandemic GDP levels by 2022.
The FTSE 100 was 0.10% in the red at 7:42 am CET, while the DAX lost 0.20%. The CAC 40 decreased 0.36%.
The euro dropped 0.17% against the greenback at 7:43 am CET, selling for $1.17906. The pound was flat at the same time, changing hands for $1.38196.
Breaking the News / MD
What a pity so many chat room posters never put any of their questions in writing to the company?
Why not support Cowichan by putting your questions in writing to Centamin Investor Relations?
Agreed this requires some effort but surely for anyone holding shares it's far better than relying solely on information from chat forums posted by people who may not be whom they claim to be.
Quite so Tornadotony!
Oh dear Sotolo!
“Could be worse. Not sure how, but it could be!”
"It’s the only could in the sky and it’s drizzling, right on me. Somehow, I’m not surprised!"
"I never get my hopes up, so I never get let down!.”
"Don’t blame me if it rains!”
"It is very much possible that I’m going to lose it once more, anyhow.!”
Cheer up Sotolo!.
You know what they say;
Some things in life are bad,
They can really make you mad.
Other things just make you swear and curse,
When you're chewing on life's gristle,
Don't grumble, give a whistle,
And this'll help things turn out for the best, hey,
Always look on the bright side of life,
Always look on the light side of life,
If life seems jolly rotten,
There's something you've forgotten,
And that's to laugh and smile and dance and sing.
When you're feeling in the dumps,
Don't be silly chumps,
Just purse you're lips and whistle,
That's the thing.
And, always look on the bright side of life,
Always look on the right side of life,
For life is quite absurd,
An. death's the final word,
You must always face the curtain with a bow,
Forget about your sin,
give the audience a grin,
Enjoy it, it's you last chance of the hour.
So, always look on the bright side of death,
Just before you draw your terminal breath,
Life's a piece o' ****,
When you look at it,
Life's a laugh and death's a joke it's true,
You'll see it's all a show,
Keep 'em laughing as you go,
Remember that the last laugh is on you.
And, always look on the bright side of life,
Always look on the right side of life,
Come on, Brian cheer up,
Always look on the bright side of life,
Always look on the right side of life,
Worse things happen at sea, you know,
Always look on the bright side of life,
I mean, what do you have to lose?
You come from nothing,
You go back to nothing.
What have you lost? Nothing!
Always look on the bright side of life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BZzfLZXeAc
Beer Stalker
Yes I bought in around the same time at the then one year low of £1.03 before dividend . Yes I think the market over reacted to the bad news and like you I think the share price will stage a recovery at some point.
Of course just because the share price, in my view, is under valued, doesn't mean it can't fall even further , which it is doing. I will remain patient as I say, until it reaches around £1.35 ish and leave ..that doesn't mean I don't think it could go higher , it's just that for me , a 35% profit over hopefully no longer than a few months will do me just fine.
I am reassured by goldgnome and others optimism . I am optimistic too , but as you can see from their reactions to my postings , I am not as optimistic as they are , and that is fine.
Good luck to us all.
To be Candid,
I think you should cut your losses and invest in Tesla, and do it now. Lets cut to the chase, and dont invest in something you dont understand.
best
the gnome.
The problem Steve, and others who look back at the higher share price, is that, despite higher gold price, ounces are down and costs have risen so much that profits look likely to be more than halved, hence much lower share price. IF the company can get costs including capex down from their currently outrageously high levels AND get ounce mined back up which helps costs, then our price should shoot back up. However given Centamin history and historic mining inflation this is an IF. Plus mining investors are worried that gold will fall when interest rates rise, and that gold shares will tumble as usual when the market crashes and demands lower PE’s imho
Ian
They should be able to mine out 60,000 ounces of the much higher grade open mine ore from December to next March , hence why the target production is higher for 2022 year. They have processed a lot of low grade stripped out ore in the waste piles. The future looks far more promising on costs, production, climate protection measures and future resource increases. Eventually CEY will bottom in price and that is when a lot of us will throw in the kitchen sink and just back up the truck and load up with yet more CEY shares. Tony
Amazing to see that the sp her this time last years was £2.10p - i wonder how many long term holders are sat looking at a hefty loss.
The company looks in good shape to my untrained accountancy eye.. No debts cash rich and paying a decent divi. They are also on track to meet 2021 guidance.
Anyone got any info on when or how the west wall of mine that had some movement will be addressed ? I’m sure i read they were looking at a new entry point to mine that richer gold? That issue started the steep dip in sp autumn 2020.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1436916433649340418
Reminds me of Centamin's 'progress' in West Africa. Looks can be deceiving
https://twitter.com/RonaldS_AuCu/status/1437010301828964354
2Q21 balance sheets. As #gold & #equities continue to face market headwinds, many continue to build impressive war chests that they’ll ultimately use to buy new assets. 6 of 54 we show here have >US$1.0B in working capital & 14 have >$500MM.
Look for and own the targets.
----------------------------------->>>
My Thoughts:
When you subtract the debt off the growing cash hoard of these miners the vast majority are still net zero - except Centamin, Kirkland Lake and a few others. A shame the market doesn't give us a premium for either financial prudence or an industry leading dividend
Bottom Line: you gotta be producing the most ounces - whether profitably or not - to win a premium in the pocketbooks of investors
@Candidinvestor
I think we will all be relieved to see CEY get back up to 135 in a timely manner. I have been averaging down on this more than any other. There is of course a story behind the SP drop with the reported instability at Sakuri triggering a large drop, which was my original entry point. The original anticipated fixing of that has taken longer than my amateur estimation.
TBH if I wasn’t so heavily invested already I’d top up again, but it does not make good sense to have too many eggs in one mining; plus I through caution to the wind a couple of weeks back in fund allocation to purchase shares in HE1, which is a whole different level of risk.
It’s good to see investors like you buying into this share though, as we all believe it’s due to turn the corner some time soon.
Let's Cut to the chase
Centamin.... Down 57% 1 year , Down 32% 5 years
Microsoft . Up 44% 1 year up 416% 5 years
Tesla ..Up 75% 1 year up 1692% 5 years
Good luck to anyone who still thinks Centamin is a growth share .
I invest in recovery shares and do extremely well thank you . Centamin is an up and down share. I bought at £1.00 after latest div and I will exit around £1.35.
That doesn't mean of course that the share price won't fall further in the short term ..It probably will, I never time my purchases exactly right
I want it to reach around £1.35 or there soonest and I can move on to the next share
I am not whining or complaining, I make my money on shares like Centamin but I don't get too carried away with them, or have blind faith that they are something they are not.
Centamin is not in my view a growth share and you don't need to be a qualified accountant to see that
Thanks Mr T
My questions have been emailed in as you direct. For your and any others reference, they are below
....
I am a CEY long term investor (years )
I have several questions which I would like your company to answer. The answer can be made public, and I would prefer in writing, but happy to take a call
to clarify questions.
1. What portion of your Exploration budget will be spent on near mine versus new mine discovery?
2. What portion of your "new mine discovery" budget will be directed at new mines in Egypt, versus new mines out of Egypt?
3. What are your plans for creating value in the short term from the assets you hold in West Africa, and what do you see as the most significant risks in achieving these (and how do you plan
to manage such risks?)
4. What efforts is the company going to, to assess acquisition and merger opportunities? Is this formalised and are maangement/ staff accountable for this, or otherwise?
5. What are the major cost saving initiatives being put in place now and in the next 3 years?
6. CEY is undervalued now, how does the board plan to create value in the next 1 year, and given that this would entail several initiatives, can you prioritise the initiatives.
7. CEY is undervalued now, how does the board plan to create value in the next 5 years.
...
best
the gnome
Earlier this month, the legendary mining investor Rick Rule (legendary investor) conversed ...
‘I would argue that if you look at Australian gold equities, particularly the mid-caps and the single asset producers, they are selling at the lowest multiple of net present value to enterprise value that I have seen in a 45-year career.
‘These companies are statistically as cheap as they have ever been, at a point in time when I believe gold is going to go up.
‘That makes them very attractive to me.’
“Look for companies that enjoy strong free cash flow,” Rule says.
“Statistically, the cheap ones are the single asset producers and the mid-caps (400,000oz to 1.2moz per year) with good free cash flows.
“Look for companies with good development pipelines.
CEY is in the investment basket
best
the gnome
Lots of dangerous currents washing/ sloshing around in the market place/s. If the covid virus and its (endless?) mutations are not enough, the politicisation of virus containment and the government management of the economic effects of the virus are cause for alarm.
In the ongoing economic fallout from the pandemic, David Woo (now INde of Wall Street, trying to make a name for himself as such) now worries that lax insights from Wall Street’s intellectual elite could throw up painful problems in the near term.
I would argue ... has, is and will .... throw up a raft of problems,
‘‘Wall Street is doing just that to us today with the far more dangerous threat posed by climate change, craftily greenwashing the economic system and delaying overdue systemic solutions, including those intended to combat rising inequality,’’ . The UN reports 4.5 million dying of cold pa, and 600k dying of heat pa? Is global warming that bad?
The timing of the US Federal Reserve’s plan to scale back its $US120 billion monthly bond buying that has reduced borrowing costs through the health crisis and helped to support financial markets, has emerged as one of the biggest questions facing investors today. It cannot continue, as the race to grab debt (as much as possible) to buy assets, especially those which produce passive income at 2-5x the cost of the debt is gravity defying. Asset bubbles everywhere
The rapid rise of the delta variant, which has refocused attention on vaccines in countries such as Israel, Britain and the US, which enjoyed some of the highest inoculation rates in the world, is being swayed by perceptions that the recent surge is the fault of the anti-vax crowd. (Vax reduces the personal risk of effects of the virus, and has some reducing effect on the spread?)
Instead, waning protection among the vaccinated poses just as serious a threat, Woo believes, and could delay widely held views that the US central bank will ease its bond buying this year.
‘‘The most fundamental question on Wall Street right now – when is the Fed going to taper? – comes down to what is causing the surge in COVID-19 cases and what assumptions the market is making,’’ Woo says.
“New variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus are detected every week,” Ray says. “Most come and go — some persist but don’t become more common; some increase in the population for a while, and then fizzle out. When a change in the infection pattern first pops up, it can be very hard to tell what’s driving the trend — changes to the virus, or changes in human behavior. It is worrisome that similar changes to the spike protein are arising independently on multiple continents.”
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/a-new-strain-of-coronavirus-what-you-should-know
The underperformance of many gold companies whether single or multiple mines is a strange event. The billowing of the cypto related companies and currencies is staggering, given that most are h
"Gold gnome has repeatedly said that some companies keep identifying new reserves worth two further years of gold production..this doesn't represent growth ..it represents an extension of steady state production since new finds barely match gold depletion from previous production"
LET ME TRY TO INFORM YOU. A gold mine is from a geological perspective, a record of a gold mineralising event. The event generally involves large/crustal scale leaching of gold, followed by focussing the deposition of gold into a favourable area. The scale of the favourable area is generally at the scale of 10's of kilometers. At this scale, a mine is generally not much more than a point on a map.
Sukari known gold reserve is a point on the map.
The probability of finding more gold in the scale of 10's of kilometers is relatively very high.
The cost of discovering this is incremental, and contained within a mine site exploration budget. It does not involve additional political risk, governance risk, Capex risk, personnel risk in operating in new countries, etc.
If one makes a discovery within the 10's of kilometers of the present owned mine, then the conversion of the discovery into minable ounces does not involve a rehash of the exploration/acquistion (new country, new laws, regulations, logistics, mine build, etc) risks, requires substantially less invetsment and happens in substantially less time.
You can say increasing the JORC Resources and Reserves, the production profile and decreasing the all-in company risk profile does not represent growth, but then what does such a change represent my dear accounting friend. Steady state? A decrease? Call it what you may like, but I call it growth, at a lower risk in less time, and companies are built around this every day.
Why dont you look at how Northern Star was built,
https://www.nsrltd.com/about
Evolution Mining
Evolution in November 2011 and successfully turned that initial resource at Mt Carlton into one of the world’s highest-grade open pit gold mines.
https://evolutionmining.com.au/our-story/
good luck in your investing,
the Gnome
Here's where I can agree with you: Centamin has prioritized returning surplus operating profits to its shareholders and this means it has chosen to avoid acquiring other producing assets or as you put it seeking consolidation of the industry.
Personally I am okay with that strategy. Organic growth is the cheapest way to add value to the company over time. And mining is a long game.
On the other topics you raise - insisting this is not a growth stock because gold production has remained static for years and years - well, I too am frustrated with how long development has taken but some of the fault belongs to management's desire to be ready to act when the conditions were right in Egypt.
In the end we all have to decide whether or not we believe Centamin presents a good case to remain invested. For me the answer is yes. For you, not so much. I wish you luck.
I agree in some respects with your comments but think you underestimate the ability of the huge area surrounding Sukari which Centamin controls to provide ore to sustain 400 - 500k oz operations for many years to come.
Combine this with the likely increase in gold price from rampant money printing and other measures we employ to avoid having to face the reality that sometimes we have to put up with tough times & I think Centamin will be able to continue to be a solid dividend paying company for a long time.
I am certainly increasing my holdings at these prices with next to know concern, when the price gets back towards the 200p level I agree it will be time to take profit & wait for the next fall. A single mine operation will always be subject to big volatility, the nature of gold mining pretty much guarantees it, I agree it is much more rewarding to take advantage of that volatility than whine about it but unfortunately that is the way of the new worldwide attitude, complain about everything and blame anything & anyone else but ourselves for our perceived misfortunes & inequities - if it wasn’t so annoying it would be a good giggle :)
Again my apologies for the mix up of my earlier posts but either the site played up or more likely my posting on it .
If you take Centamin as a company ..you can see that the growth phase took place beyond 2008 when the first gold bar ingot was mined . Therein lay 20 plus safe years of steady gold mining production ahead. That figure now is 10...midway through its life cycle
Gold gnome has repeatedly said that some companies keep identifying new reserves worth two further years of gold production..this doesn't represent growth ..it represents an extension of steady state production since new finds barely match gold depletion from previous production . Growth would look like a scenario where 10 years then 20 years then 30 years worth of gold were discovered in successive years ,not the 2 year hand to mouth discoveries which have been taking place ..which as I said is no more than extending the life of the mine .
You only have to look at Cebramins major strategic reviews , they are geared to extending the life of Sukari . Cost cutting exercises are short term sticking plasters to delay the inevitable. I should know , I was a Finance Director for 25 years and did it numerous times . No I haven't even seen a gold mine let alone worked on one . But being a qualified accountant for 40 years with a Cranfield MBA in addition has taught me a little about strategic assessment, analysis and direction .
Other people are commenting on the reliability of dividend ...they are not steadily reliable at all, they are lumpy .
Besides , the existence of dividends depicts the status of the company . Consider what dividends are for a minute ..they are surpluses of cash returned to shareholders. This means that they can't use... by their own admission, this cash productively anywhere else within the company.
Microsoft and Tesla don't pay dividends ..their surplus cash is reinvested to grow their company even more . This is why dividends are not important to their shareholders .
Note the remark by the CEO ..the board has abandoned the idea of striving to achieve 500,000 ounces of production per annum and reset production to 400,000 to 450000 ounces per year ...people think this is growth ...really ?
Someone mentioned that the new CEO cares about retail investors. .I laughed out loud ..I as Finance Director, have written numerous reports saying the same in my companies annual reports very much similar to that . Giving him the benefit of the doubt though..maybe he does .
The best comment for me which sums everything up was the remark of how much dividends had actually cost him when measured alongside the performance of the share price.
Agree with me or disagree that's fine ..enlightening me would be better.
Apologies , I can't post links to these but just google the following share price charts and click on the " all time" portion for the share price on the share
1. Centamin
2. Gold Rock mining Trust
As you can see , the shape of both of these charts are virtually identical ..the latter will include Barrick and Newmont ...they all say the same thing. We have or are approaching peak gold ...the growth phase was years previously . We are not in decline yet but as gold reserves world wide diminish then the industry as a whole will decline. It isn't in dispute Gold mining is a currently steady state industry heading for decline . This is borne out by share prices across the industry as a whole . Just take a look at any of the historic share prices of ALL the mining companies including Barrick Gold ..
Take Centamin ...its share price has never ever increased beyond £2.20 . Yes I think the current share price correction is overdone, which is why I have invested here , but I am not deluding myself from the fact that I shouldn't be staying here on the hopes of future discoveries
Gold like oil is a finite resource . Currently 190 out of the 240 million ounces widely renowned as economically viable gold reserves have already been mined. Does this make it a long term growth sector or one in decline ?
As the article says , the only major area where there are known untapped resources is West Africa . Yes Centamin are going there , but so are the major players like Barrick etc ..why ? Because there are few other large places left for them to mine .
What will happen in time is a consolidation of gold mining companies because there won't be enough gold for everyone to mine, apart from the moon , the Antarctic and beneath the sea bed ...not economically viable . The reason West Africa has been left until last is the political instability within the region .
If you want to know what a growth company is then just take at look at Microsoft Share price of Tesla and compare their returns over the previous 5 years ..they are growth shares. Centamin is NOT.
Next post will focus on my thoughts on Centamin itself take it or leave it ..opinions and questions welcomed
Sorry I got cut off....continually finding enough gold to mine for the next 2 years does not I repeat does not represent a growth share , it represents an extended steady state share, new gold extraction barely exceeds gold depletion from production
More on a new thread ..otherwise the post becomes too long winded
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54230737.amp
Look at this chart . Does this look like the chart of a growth share to you .the growth part was around 2008 when the first gold ingot was mined and there was a 20 year clearly identified production path ahead of it .
The share price should equate to the NPV of future cash flows ..which is does in the years to follow ..now though we are half way through with no new mines in production .
Look at annual reports ..annual production levels reduced to 400-450 for foreseeable future . If this was a growth share the annual productions levels would be increasing significantly year on year ..they are not ..continually finding enough reserves for the next 2 years
Hi Cowichan,
Very interesting and informative posts, especially so considering your knowledge as a geologist and indeed long term holder helps people to understand and come to realise that things are not a simple or straight forward as some forums would have them believe!
Tibbs