Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
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Opinion of Dasut one of this groups very experienced members
I am not sure that there is an African cost structure given the number of countries on the African continent having worked in 6 of the countries there are quite large differences and considerable political risk variations.
Quick difference Burkina more expensive than Ghana and Ivory Coast purely based on logistics of land locked and easy access to ports.
I would love to know why Batie is non core, is it political risk, physical risk is it cost prohibitive suggest a combination of all in addition to a difficult ore structure, not sure if I have seen a detailed justification relating to Batie being non core.
There are numerous mines in West Africa long standing that are profitable and if Doropo and ABC are anything like projects that I visited on numerous occasions in Ghana and have free dig start ups of oxide ores then I see both resources as benefiting Centamin 's bottom line.
Opinion to Centamin Jan 2022
He is spot on re the stripping and the ore : waste ratio – the higher the proportion of ore, the more ounces are produced.
Longer haulage distances are negligible to be frank – the upside currently remains in the existing open-pit shell and the deeper prospects in the underground. As to what happens post the stripping campaign with Capital’s fleet I do not know.
Centamin may want to buy these back off them – Centamin do a lot of their own stripping and haulage afterall, and having a younger fleet will reduce maintenance costs etc.
If there are discoveries within proximity to the Sukari plant (either in the Sukari license or in their new licenses) they will need to have a bigger mining fleet anyway.
Although any decision on this fleet is some way off as there is still another 3-4 years of high stripping to do.
From Kees Dekker mining analyst Jan 2022
In my experience here is an extra cost working in African countries.
The productivity there is lower than elsewhere. In discussions with a director of SRK I told him that I do not subscribe to many unit mining cost estimates used for African countries in the economic assessment in technical reports. He confirmed to me that a SRK study had come up with an average unit rate of US$3.5/t mined for Africa. This includes drilling and blasting. I estimate for free dig material this should be some US$1/t lower. About Batie, it is non-core in my mind because the very low grade makes it unattractive given the risks associated with a project in Africa and a political high-risk country at that. Doropo is better, but still not fantastic. No wonder they downgraded Batie.
Kees
My friend who is in regular contact with Centamin put Kees opinion to them
As Kees pointed out, Centamin is “getting there”, and that is shown by the confidence in guidance for this year being 430-460,000oz, though with higher costs because of inflation and the need for more investment (solar plant, paste plant, underground development, etc etc). Centamin has reduced significantly the volatility of production levels in the last 18 months in particular, whilst investing in Sukari’s ability to produce sustainable and low cost ounces for the next decade or so.
Thanks Sotolo-------Im at the age where i sometimes doubt my memory. It is actually usually very good except when I go in the garden and spend more time looking for my gloves or trowel than I do actually gardening!
I think with being here so long, things tend to go round and maybe even forgotten about. I remember there was a Joseph and a Josef at Centamin and one was supposed to be an honourable man. Ive not a clue who was who!
I know Centamin has had a bl--dy big fall from its peak and even in the last year or so.
I think there was t4g who was moaning about the share price about 9 months ago and went into Boo hoo at £1.05.
Im down on my investment in Centamin but with the divis over the years probably in front if that make sense? I've reinvested the divis and due the the divis and low share price have increased my holding a bit--- but it is still only a tiny fraction of yours.
Have a good weekend.
Hi Tibbs, I appreciate the longer-term shareholders here have been put through significant stress and financial loss as Pardey made a huge mess in the pit. About the only good thing I can see is that he left centamin with a quarter billion dollar cash pile but that's about what it's going to take to put things right. I've only been a shareholder for about 18 months so it's easy for me to look to the future rather than the past. Respect to you for hanging in through thick and thin. Re Doropo on the face of it it looks good - 5m oz inferred - lots of drilling about to convert many of those ozs to indicated which ought to give another boost to the SP. Cote D'Ivoire reasonably stable. Looks good but I'm not a miner and have no experience in Africa so am completely reliant on Centamin/Horgan's judgement on that call. The rewards are certainly worth going for but what are the risks?
Hi Clued,
Good to hear from you,
A friend of mine has expressed both verbally to IR and in writing to Martin Horgan and the Centamin BOD that it would be a demonstration of confidence in their new company strategy to ask Kees Dekker the mining analyst to accept a position in an advisory capacity to the BOD .
Both the Kees Dekker 2015 & 2018 Seeking Alpha articles raised serious concerns about the way Sukari mining operations were being managed and although denied at the time by Andrew Pardey subsequent events have proven Kees to have been remarkably accurate in his findings and predictions.
Were it possible an appointment of an advisor such as Kees must surely demonstrate great confidence on behalf of the company in its forward strategy and would likely be very well received by the market and existing and potential investors.
Hi Razor's,
I hope so too, Martin seems a decent chap, he certainly doesn't need to prove his professional ability.
What is really annoying, frustrating is that the concerns abut Sukari were flashed up in 2015 and these were denied by Pardey and like it or not Ross Jerrard chief finance officer, Darren Le Masurier company Secretary and other exec and non exec Jersey BOD and external auditors who were all responsible for financial risk management and could, and should have questioned if the custom and practice of the day to day operation of Sukari was likely to be a potential risk to the future viability the company, whatever actions they took, the bad practice continued until the concerns were again flagged up in 2018,
If you recall 2018 was the year 3 weeks after Pardey and the former Egyptian policeman, then mine general manager were flagging up 600,000 ozs that Pardey then issued an RNS that they had hit unexpected low grades in the open pit ( they were known about in 2015) and Oh yes the sole LHDR had self destructed and somebody forgot to order spares!
What did the Ross Jerrard and the rest of the Jerasey BOD do , bugger all really, the high grading carried on until the open pit narrowly avoided disappearing under a pile waste ore!
In the meantime whilst the Sukari "Pyramid scheme had been had been run to a stand still by unnecessary risk risk taking the BOD had allowed the squandering of hundreds of millions of company cash reserves on what has amounted to be hole drilling for no return!
So just what were the analyst's doing whilst this in some respects very clever Sukari sham and in other respects chaotically or ill managed West African portfolio of undelivered promises ?
Well the analyst certainly weren't asking the right questions as far as we share holders are concerned, but then they are rarely do, because they are in the main corporate analysts!
A friend of mine was so frustrated with being ignored by Pardey they contacted a couple of the corporate analysts and asked them why they hadn't raised certain questions, or noticed the past bad mining practice at Sukari, my friend got a call a few days later from Buchanan claiming that an RBC analyst had complained that they were being a nuisance !
So its results we share holders deserve now, certainly not more empty promises, reduced dividend and the taking on of debt for projects that may only be marginally profitable, if at all!
Possibly one the most annoying aspects of this isn't the wasted money, its the wasted time!
Very interesting mrtibbles. What a corrupt world. Reminds me of an investment, Vatakoula Goldmines, that I lost on many years ago, corruption involved. Personally, I couldn't live the life of a rich hypocritical sociopathic deceiving mining co director without constantly feeling dirty/evil and a fake to the core. These same 'scum' probably appear as great parents, loving partners, community stalwarts, etc...to their colleagues !! Sad b..tards. But yes it does go on and you say in many mining cos !! What I find most concerning is that the Analysts don't uncover most of these deceipts and they are tasked with safeguarding pension and investment funds for millions !! They obviously lack the required knowledge and there's also probably some engineered hiding by the co and even analyst corruption at play, a little like the Germans hiding the reality in 1936 olympics from the visiting countries !!
Thanks again Mrtibbles… the saying “ignorance is bliss” comes to mind when I consider the absolute mess Centamin was in when the news broke about underground movement and here I was blaming the market for over reacting. Seems now the reaction was accurate.
The up side is we’re two years away from the tsunami and well into the recovery cycle.
I have faith in Martin Horgan and even if other management have delivered dodgy performances in the past the fact that MH is now their leader will hopefully encourage them to up their game.
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined once again by Craig Hemke, founder of the TF Metals Report, to discuss the Fed’s refusal to accept the US is slipping into a recession.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhvfVhBOf7c
The two industry allies contemplate the approaching end of the COMEX’s confidence scheme, as investors wake up to widespread spoofing and join the mass exodus to fairer alternatives.
Timestamps
00:00 Start
01:25 Craig Hemke & Kinesis’ “ gold and silver swindle” video soon reach 1M views!
04:35 About post-pandemic stagflation and reaching neutral GDP
08:30 The US in recession, Powell in denial.
10:05 Game of short and long contracts
17:30 Never seen the house this long and the specs this wrongfooted!
21:15 JP Morgan is exiting its silver shorts
25:25 House account of Bank of America had been stopping gold contracts all year long
27:20 COMEX’s hedging mechanism is broken!
31:10 The Confidence Scheme - people are waking up, exiting the space
34:45 EFPs - how many tonnes have exited this month in gold?
38:55 Remember - physical, physical, physical…
41:40 It’s a PSYOP! What is the key to ending this scheme?
44:15 Don't go buying 100 shares of the GLD thinking you own physical gold.
48:25 Where can we find Craig Hemke? Join the community, protect yourself!
Click the Twitter link below and tag who you want our expert analyst to discuss gold with and we'll see what we can do...
https://twitter.com/KinesisMonetary/s...
The Biggest Gold and Silver Swindle of all Time
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALZP8...
Good morning, Razor's,
I apologise for not replying sooner but I was committed to meeting with friends at the local several of whom are also long term Centamin holders, one of whom holds an executive position an international business operating in Egypt and other West African regions, I won't refer to the latter by their real name, but instead as Jim ( I made the mistake in the past of disclosing the real name of a senior member of staff of company in an industry related business, well, I will just say it caused problems for them!).
Jim said he doesn’t encounter many problems running accounts in Egypt/Middle East, but doing business in Western African regions, can be quite different matter.
You will have realised from Cowichan's and others work on behalf of us all that this board is monitored and is also inhabited at times by some who certainly aren't whom they claim to be and those aren't always acting in our best interests.
More years ago, than I care to remember a fellow share holder and Jersey resident had through their quite separate personal business dealings with a now former very senior Centamin executive expressed serious concerns to me that all wasn't quite as it seemed or was being presented at Sukari, well unfortunately the past four years are confirmation of those concerns!
My Jersey friend had become so concerned they sold out in 2018 just after the Kees Dekker report "Get out again whilst the going is good!”) once again flagging up concerns and invested elsewhere
Obviously I made the mistake of thinking surely my friend and Kees didn’t know all the facts, it couldn't be that bad, the analysts that visited the site would have surely picked up on things, the management wouldn't deliberately deceive us, but now we all know things were in fact far worse, not only did Sukari nearly implode, but many millions of company funds were in fact squandered pointlessly on now abandoned projects in West African jurisdictions because of a lack of due diligence or a clear understanding of company project criteria by senior company officers some of whom are still in post!.
Some will say then if you don't believe then sell out and walk away, but then that happens all too often, the directors of far too many mining companies fill their boots having sold pie in the sky promises to their ordinary shareholders whom are treated with disdain and expected to go away quietly.
So let’s see if this is just a hobby for Martin Horgan, (instead of a big train set) or a genuine passion to deliver on his stated aims for Sukari, although I remain very uneasy about what may be just another ill thought through West African money pit (Doropo)
Here is the eye watering cost for digging Sukari out of the crap!
https://www.capdrill.com/media/investors/Announcements/CAPD_Launch-Announcement-RNS_20201202_Final_Website.pdf
Interesting times for investors, and trying to time the market/s
A $10,000 investment in US shares with a diversified portfolio, in 1993 (with income reinvested) would now be worth more than $182,000, more than five times the same investment in cash would have made and representing an annual compounded return of more than 10 per cent. or 17200%
The same amount invested in Australian equities (again, with income reinvested) would now be worth $131,000, representing an annual compounded return of more than 9 per cent. Australian shares offered the second-best returns over 30 years...
Keeping money in cash – the worst-performing asset class over 30 years – would have generated returns of about $36,000, or about 4 per cent.
In 1993 Gold had an average closing price of $362/oz or you could buy 27.6 ozs of gold and stash under your mattress...and for 2022 that is worth about $51,132
I guess I might top up? and enjoy an extra double malt....
best
the gnome
Paul you are quite right, a year or two ago I reduced my Cey holding and put a chunk into THS which has fallen 25% which is far less than Cey, and is a great company mining chrome and platinum group metals, and a little into buying more Hoc, which turned out to be useless so returned this to Cey plus have bought more so have the biggest number I have ever owned, the reason why is thought I expect gold may fall below 1680 on the rate rises now, mid term I hope for a rise with inflation and I don’t like to try to time the gold market which is notoriously tough full of unpredictable short term currents and eddies even if long term I believe the tide is rising. This to cheer you on the gold front as yesterday’s FT to paraphrase said tax cuts are set to be an important feature of the Truss premiership… Nigel Lawson draws parallels with the 1972 ‘dash for growth’ Budget that was followed by years of high inflation, when gold increased almost seven-fold in real terms. Commodities like oil and wheat also did well. The dismal performance of equities showed they were a feeble hedge against inflation.” Have a good weekend
Whoops with the $100m figure, more like $260m
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/CAPD/centamin-awards-usd260-million-sukari-gold-mine-contract-to-capital-xy1q8evbe5l33ku.html
Good post Mrtibbles, you are obviously much more knowledgeable about Centamin’s past than me.
Although we both share the same faith for the future.
Am I correct in equating the demise of the cash pile to the $100m that Capital are charging for the striping contract?
Hi Razor's,
I recall that Q&A webinar too, although I remain uneasy that Ross Jerrard was chief financial director when all those millions that were once in the Centamin coffers were in effect flushed down the lavatory on Pardey's drilling projects in West Africa because it was decided that such projects no longer fit the company criteria , now the question remains why didn't Ross Jerrard question the feasibility or the "fit" of the projects sooner?
Also considering Ross Jarrards experience he must have been aware that the Sukari output was being achieved by high grading and using less than appropriate, unfit for purpose mining methods, we are all aware how much this "oversight" "approval" on his part has cost to put right over the past four year!
From the experience of building a very successful mining business and selling it at a very handsome profit Martin Horgan obviously knows how to run a gold mine and really he does'nt need to work any more, but at his own admission he didn't want retire and he saw Centamin as a challenge, no denying if all is as claimed in the presentations he seems to have made great progress in turning things around, although as yet all we really have is predictions of better times to come, we still need to see the proof in guidance delivered at reduced AISC.
As yet I remain very optimistic and hope that this time will be different!
The mining markets media is full of all manner of miners using slick marketing and presentations claiming to have hit marvellous reserves, they just want investors cash to exploit them , more often or not though its so they can carry on awarding themselves handsome packages whilst claiming to deliver exceptional returns sometime in the future!
Unfortunately its usually the ordinary investors who lose out!
So we have been patient long enough and after such a miserable three or four years it's time to start delivering proper guidance at reduced AISC.
Tibbs
Have a good relaxing weekend everyone.
I remember watching a Centamin conference call about a year ago and in Q&A Martin Horgan looked to Ross Jerrard for guidance/agreement when answering a question about future financing, I got a clear impression that the two have a serious game plan but didn’t want to revile it to the market/public.
I think they’re a sound management team playing serious and all to the good.
See the low again below and my post from 2 days ago......
$1,776.16
Today Change
-0.58% $-10.41
Today high $1,795.29 Today low $1,765.66
..".just shows how important the $POG @US $1764/65 is........currently at $1,764.73......they beat us down to this resistance/ceiling......but we can take it again and then on to $1,849"
Interesting that he mentions a potential debt facility for future M&A. Not heard that one before.
Hi Paul,
Not happy about the dividend cut but then its hardly uprising considering past events!
I really can't see the point in borrowing money (line of credit) to possibly blow on other West African projects, how many millions did they flush (write off) down the lavatory doing that in the past?
Disappointing open pit grades,hardly worth doing at the present AISC, just as well they have the underground!
I see the priority as getting Sukari sorted out and and churning out the cash,but this time by fit for purpose mining methods and the best way of doing that is to reduce the AISC
The NFP figures were sky high more than double the estimate. Of course the August data is largely made up as statistical figures are used to deal with a high percentage of non-return data arising because of staff holidays. The June figures were revised higher by 18,000 or so. Of course the USA President will love the data and the FED will hate it. USA currency is now taking off again. Most of gold fall in USD is dollar appreciation. In the meantime no recession in USA and inflation going gang busters.
Im guessing that quick $20 drop is due to US jobs figures being better than expected?
So----feeling a bit happer Mr T?
I suppose sometimes its about perception. The share price is where it was in April and we have the confirmation of a poor dividend, high costs and low profit margins.
However, I think that the way Martin Horgan has been playing it should stand us in good stead in future (hopefully not too distant). He has gone about things in a solid manner and not over promised. I think the market is beginnning to warm to this after years of lost trust in Centamin management
He could probably have found some way of upping the profits and profit margins in the short term, by high grading, but I think he is really building solid foundations now.
In cricketing terms (Test Match of course :-)) , a cameo innings of 35 or 40 might be entertaining, but you are more likely to win if one of your batsmen posts a Big Hundred. Im hoping he has a few fresh pairs of batting gloves in his bag.
Bit of a glut of Courgettes here , and been freezing some. Also stoned and frozen some plums for jam making later in the year -------oh and got a few blackcurrants to throw in too.
Thank you Bobby,
Looking forward to hearing some more detail on how this is proposed to work.
Not to worried about the POG, we all know the reasons why the POG is being held back, the house will let it rise when its ready and in any case Basel 3 is due for full implementation in 2023.
Martin Horgan has been on schedule with most things so far, although why worry about Doropo , from the information available the grades aren't anything spectacular anyway, so possibly better not to rush things, personally I cant really see much point in spending the money on Doropo , it might be lots of expenditure for little return ,or worse?
After past experience I really cant get excited about West African projects.
Concentrate on Egypt, get the Sukarii ATM working properly, getting linked up to the main power grid is logistically retentively straight forward and is going to have the support of EMRA because AiSC will fall meaning their profit share will rise and the Egyptian government will also be selling Centamin the electrify at off peak times when there would be a surplus on the national grid, so win win!