Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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Hi Mr Gnome,
Information and debate about the unfit for purpose and corrupt monetary policies that govern ordinary peoples lives (although most are ignorant of it) are never off topic, they are all relevant to wealth and investment, so thank you!
This organisation has been trying to challenge our UK government and BOE on the the failed monetary policies for several years now, unfortunately those in power just what to keep the broken system going for as long as they can.
Since 2010 Positive Money has been working to educate the public, politicians, economists and the media about where money comes from and how banks work.
https://positivemoney.org/what-we-do/magic-money-tree/
Daily at 83 and weekly at 75. Centamin is heavily overbought.
Have to agree Tornadotony
kind of my sentiment too. The only left to support POG is China right now mainly motivated for political reasons, and they are very unpredictable with market price "manipulations" . Yet one may say that POG downward pressure is limited I recall 2150ish been string support !?
Anyhow possibly best to pause and wait for better sp entries, I am not invested in CEY but other gold miners, just to be politically correct with my statements. lol
For this month gold has put in a peak imop. The problem is that the physical gold market in jewellery and the coin and bar buyers has practically halted as jewellery makers look for lower prices as a buffer on future sales and private investors buy in dips instead of a top of a rally. On top of that major factors holding USD down has just given way.Central banks buying of gold is closing out for the time being. Paper gold does not help miners in the real physical market some one has to take delivery. Finally when you get pie in sky media prices on gold it is a big red flag that the top is usually in.
Hi I suppose the $1mil question is where is going POG in the short/mid terms. We all know that long and very long terms the trend is always up but nobody has this long time frame investment view.
So I read that retail investors still have to join the gold party and buy in to it, some suggesting that it will happen with FOMO, hence skyrocketing gold price to $3000 or whatever...
Me thinking that with so much retail money (and not) now committed to crypto there wont be much appetite for gold from Mr. John unless we are talking about the jewels market, which at these prices has to be limited upside.
On the contrarian view is that higher inflation for longer and worsening sentiment on the USD Bonds may favour POG, after all Brasil Gov Bond are at 11.2% and the Real as also appreciated some 15% since 2020, Mexican Bonds are even a better prospect at 10% and 40% currency appreciation....
Time will tell, different forces at play in uncharted territories right now, best to look at numbers out and believe what you see....
Interesting to see how things pan out today. USD continues to break out versus yen. First interest rate cut by FED is now Q4 with a tiny chance given for September. Two planks helping gold rally are now out (they are likely to return a few months from now). If geo-political is the only thing holding it up then it would need to reprice to a degree to match that level of risk which is probably lower than $2350 an ounce.
Equities in Europe traded mostly higher in the premarket on Thursday in anticipation of the European Central Bank's (ECB) new monetary policy decision, with investors eager to see if the institution would keep its interest rate the same and forecast a cut in June.
The DAX stood flat at 8:01 am CET. At the same time, the FTSE 100 gained 0.13%. The CAC 40 went up by 0.06%. A minute later, the Eurostoxx 50 increased by 0.08%.
The euro and the pound sterling both stood flat against the United States dollar at 7:58 am CET to sell for $1.07436 and $1.25448, respectively.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JR
Gold currently $2340.45
A very interesting read on things related to Gold and CEY, but a few might regard as off topic. ALICE (new book) by Stuart Kells (Australian so beware) is about the farce, that passes with grim effect, as a Financial System, and if you ever wondered what happens in the marvellous banking system, and their friends in high places then grab a copy, and a glass of good whisky. The Fin system has been in disrepute for a few decades now, but has survived on information asymmetry, and outstanding amounts of BS from the chosen few (we can guess who they are). The brainwash asymmetry has been steadily eroded, and this is probably one of the more succinct exposes.
Misunderstandings about money and banking affect the incentives and tactics of the largest private banks, and how well citizens and taxpayers hold governments and financial regulators to account (joke really, as they do not). They prevent us all from having an adult, evidence-based conversation about debt, taxes and monetary policy. Without such a conversation (knowledgeably adjudicated by finance writers and journalists) citizens will forever be bit-part players in capitalism – the irresistible targets of participants with better information.
Protecting customers, taxpayers and the community as a whole from the excesses of modern banking requires a new understanding of the roles of banks and governments in finance; a new understanding of loans, deposits and derivatives as one family of financial contracts; and a new awareness of the privileged position of private corporations in the global financial system.
Crucially, society as a whole needs to think differently about the nature of money –possibly by first discarding the term itself. “Money” encompasses a range of phenomena that have intrinsically different purposes and risks. Commercial bank deposits are materially different to banknotes, for example, which are different to reserve funds. Money as a concept is increasingly outdated and misleading.
A better understanding of money would open up the possibility of important innovations such as lending-only and deposit-only institutions; new mechanisms of financial prudence and oversight; and an integrated monetary and fiscal policy that uses monetary and fiscal levers in concert.
A new financial conversation would make the causes of inter-generational inequities more explicit, and it would allow the community to rethink allowing “too big to fail” banks to earn, year in year out, enormous risk-free profits.
The banks operate under a social contract (almost) with the tax payers via the governments of the day, but have managed to write the terms and conditions of the contract, oddly enough, to their advantage? Pass the risk and the bailouts to the tax payers, and they take the bonuses and the Ferraris, and the odd yacht (etc, yawn).
and on the show goes ...
Isnt enough enough? The great thing about gold is it is arguably in our DNA and cannot be printed adh
The European Central Bank (ECB) will issue its interest rate decision on Thursday morning, and while markets are not predicting any change to the rate at the April meeting, expectations are ramping up for them to kick off the cutting cycle soon.
But across the pond in the United States, a stronger-than-expected economy coupled with higher-than-expected inflation readings are pushing the prospect of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve further into the future.
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-04-10/ecb-fed-divergence-and-political-upheaval-could-roil-currencies-and-boost
A very squeezed market
There’s one further reason to expect another boost, according to investors. Unusually in this environment, investor demand for gold-backed exchange traded funds – typically a key driver for bullion – has yet to materialise. In fact, total holdings are close to the lowest level since 2019, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
According to Ben Ross, who manages about $US410 million in commodities strategies at Cohen & Steers, that’s largely explained by investors chasing returns in the money market. But once the Fed starts cutting interest rates, that will eventually trigger fresh inflows into ETFs and boost gold prices further.
That, according to Ruffer’s Mr MacInnes, will create a very squeezed market.
Fed fund futures are currently pricing the first interest rate cut by the US central bank in July or September of this year.
Of course, not everyone is sold on bullion’s continued run. Jay Hatfield, chief executive officer of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, has no plans to add gold in the next 12 months, opting instead for equities as central banks start to cut rates.
There are small-cap stocks trading at “historic lows on a relative multiple basis” that will do much better than gold, he said.
Near term, the sudden exuberance in the market could induce a correction. Gold’s rapid ascent has lifted the 14-day relative strength index to a level that indicates prices have risen too far, too fast.
“There’s quite a bit of expectation going into the current price,” said Darwei Kung, head of commodities and portfolio manager at DWS Group. Mr Kung is still bullish into the second half and expects more participants to increase allocations.
JUST MIGHT INCREASE MY ALLOCATION, WHICH SITS AT ABOUT 15% OF MY PORTFOLIO ....
Good luck, and better hunches and bets
the gnome
Gold’s dizzying ascent isn’t over yet, say fundies
Sybilla Gross and Yvonne Yue Li
Gold’s rally to successive record highs isn’t over, according to macro fund managers, and the factors that have powered a near-20 per cent surge since mid-February are expected to fuel more gains in the precious metal.
The higher prices have been fuelled by expectations that the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this year, typically an environment that reduces the opportunity cost of holding the metal. Meanwhile, messy conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine support demand for safe-haven assets, and purchases by global central banks add to a bullish backdrop.
On Wednesday, gold was trading at a record high of $US2,352.78 an ounce before key inflation data that could help shape the Fed’s outlook on interest rates.
The current momentum is a signal to increase holdings in gold, according to Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at GAMA Asset Management. Prices might now be vulnerable to a slight correction, he said, but any pullback was likely to bring in more buyers.
“It’s a relatively small market, and it can squeeze higher very fast,” he said, comparing it to the size of US government debt securities. “It’s a very momentum-driven asset, really.”
Gold’s sharp and sustained move higher has vexed some observers because it’s happening at a time when real yields remain elevated. That’s typically a headwind for precious metals because they don’t pay interest.
But investors have not been deterred. In New York’s Comex gold futures market, money managers are placing more bullish bets on gold, with net long positions rising to a near four-year high in the week ended April 2.
One key factor has been enthusiasm among central banks, encouraging buyers such as Matthew Schwab, head of investor solutions at Quantix Commodities with $US933 million under management.
Central bank purchases
The firm’s long-only fund has been overweight gold since 2022, with bullion’s weighting about 30 per cent – compared with about 15 per cent in the Bloomberg Commodity Index.
Purchases by central banks totalled more than 1000 tonnes in 2022 and 2023 with much of that led by economies, particularly China, where efforts to diversify away from the US dollar have accelerated.
“What I think is really, really bullish about gold is that those ounces will be taken off the market and never come back,” said Duncan MacInnes, investment director at Ruffer Investment Co. “And that’s clearly very different to the [exchange traded funds] where ultimately everyone’s a trader of it.”
Last month, he increased his exposure to gold and silver to roughly 8 per cent across his two portfolios, which combined have about $US3 billion under management.
Andrew Maguire predicted much of the recent events.
So what was that all about then, the increase in CPI was a bit of a wet fart that didn't have the usual effect the traders were expecting , no surprise really because the genie is out of the bottle, the American dream no longer has a chance of becoming a reality, if it ever did, because the US banks have been using a government crock of created money (Debt) to buy even more government debt (Bonds) backed by the dollar!
I doubt they will keep gold down for any length of time now now which is good for Centamin and it's share holders and they certainly deserve some golden flips flops more than ever!
Thanks Prof :-)
Paulmetcalfe, what an honest post.
Trading is ,and especially at the moment, un-predictable ,a casino.
But hey ho win some and lose some, the brokers enjoy it.
Good luck .
No US bank is safe, implosion coming!
https://tinyurl.com/f6prwxn7
Zang pointed out that every single bank is insolvent because of what the Federal Reserve has been doing.
“They've been buying up all of this government debt with interest rates at zero or even negative. Now that the interest rates are pushed up to quote-unquote fight inflation, all the valuation of that debt is way underwater. It’s not just commercial real estate,” she said. "If the valuations of all the banks, including the central banks, are based on debt, which they are because the entire system is based on debt. Those interest rates have pushed down the market valuations of all of that debt.”
It is extremely difficult calling a top and bottom. So much goes on in the market it favours the strategy of top slicing as it gets extremely overbought and averaging down entries when a bottom looks likely. The SBUL short got knocked back as well. A powerful buyer is calling the shots and they used daily moving average support lines on the gold channel support line as their entry point.
So are you back in Steve or waiting?
I've done the sell a few and had to buy back at a higher price a couple of times (Not today!) . 3bear------when I sell they tend to go up- and when I buy the tend to go down. I get it right sometimes :-)
The price is still sitting on top of the 8DMA as is the price of gold, still see no reason to sell, hopefully we can push past 129 which was the high 4th Jan 2021. then may be take a little break before consolidating up there for a while before moving up past 163 in time.
Steve,
Always nice to see an honest and non-egocentric post.
Thank you.
Best wishes,
Prof
The fed said it once a few years ago (Janet Yellen) we have to keep Gold and $US in balance, news always comes when one or another gets hot, lately $US down gold high. As expected to keep $US high against the BRICS as well, I believe that the FED created the Bitcoin and no one else as it is in control to replace the $PETRO so if you need to buy Bitcoin or any other digital you need to convert your local currency to $US (keeping $US in more demands to fight the BRICS.
Why the FED very quite about the Bitcoin that has no back up value, and worth not even the air we breathe. If it was really created by any one, the FED would end it.
This is only my opinion and I have no evidence of any but a logical explanation as there are many theories about who created the Bitcoin as no one know the real creator, started by Chinese then many other countries and names no one know about
Bitcoin.com
Type of site Private
Headquarters Saint Kitts and Nevis
Area served Worldwide
CEO Corbin Fraser
Industry Cryptocurrency
This doesn’t convince me as it’s real scam. Once the $FED achieves their goal they will destroy the Bitcoin and create the real digital that based on economic data.
Have a great day and GLTA,
Dan
Yep didn’t see that gold recovery so quick either. You can’t get it right every time :-). But it’s great for the long term holders plus it’s great to see such resilience on Cey.
Happy trading and good luck all :-).
Just sold some more at 123.41 only to see SP bounce straight back above 125, sigh. I need to read more on this Kahneman bloke. Still 50% in.
there are areas where industrial mining just can't work because of the number of years small artisanal mines have been operating in the areas. case in point is yengema in sierra leone where there was once a large diamond mine that i visited many times back in the 70's when i lived in freetown. then the area was very well managed and a major employer until the civil war broke out and it was abandoned and never reopened because the rebels took over and over the years the area has become an area of 1000's small mines. yes there is some structure but totally inefficient.
fascinating place and from the air it looks like a massive ant hill with thousands of ants (read people) moving around. the last time i visited in 2005 i met a group of ****ney lads in the guest house bar and they had bought a few licences and were working to see if they could make their fortune. talk about a throw back to the wild west.
difficult to criticise because the area whilst inefficient it is still an employer and there is life after what was a major war where many people were killed by the rebels spilling over from liberia.
one of the guys who worked on my team was previously a mining engineer working at the bauxite mine in sierra leone and he was kidnapped with others and made to walk hundreds of miles through the bush before being released to the red cross. he can tell some stories.
easy to criticise but whilst chaotic it is organised chaos and people can feed themselves after the years of strife.