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Everyone in financial markets seems to have a different explanation for why US bond yields have reached their highest level in 16 years. now...distilled down to just three.
Jerome Powell started with what was not causing higher yields that translate to rising borrowing costs for business, government and households.
“It’s not apparently about expectations of higher inflation. And it’s also not mainly about shorter term policy moves,” the Reserve Bank chairman said on Thursday (Friday AEDT).
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed was “attentive” to the rise in yields. AP
Powell means financial markets are not trying to guess what the Fed is going to do with interest rates in the short term because if they were, they would have pushed up yields substantially on shorter term yields such as 2-year bonds. Instead, the higher yields have been on longer dated bonds.
So, then why push up yields on longer dated bonds?
“Markets and analysts are seeing the resilience of the economy to high-interest rates. And they’re revising their view about the overall strength of the economy and thinking in the longer term, this may require higher rates.”
Second, Powell points to the fiscal side of the ledger.
“There may be a heightened focus on fiscal deficits,” he said, “concerns over fiscal deficits could be a longer-term factor.”
Powell has just returned from the latest World Bank and International Monetary Fund meetings in Morocco where he heard that a lot of “countries are facing the need for substantial amounts of revenue....[for] military, there’s also dealing with climate change”.
“It’s not a secret...we know that we’re on an unsustainable path fiscally. It’s not that the level of the debt is unsustainable, it’s not, it’s that the path we’re on is unsustainable, and we’ll have to get off that path sooner rather than later.”
Powell then moved on to the third reason: better compensation for putting your money in bonds compared to equities, especially if the supply of bonds is bigger, pushing down their price. Prices move in the opposite direction to yields.
“Another one you hear very often is the changing correlation between bonds and equities.”
“If we are going forward into a world of more supply shocks rather than demand shocks, that could make bonds, a less attractive hedge to equities. Therefore, you need to be paid more to own bonds, and therefore, the term premium goes up.”
Powell said these changes were all pointing to higher borrowing costs. “If you look at financial conditions indexes, they’re showing tightening and a lot of that is because of longer rates,” he said.
IT WONT BE THE SUPPLY SHOCKS BUT THE MILITARY SHOCKS ...QUITE LUDICROUS FOR NATIONS THAT REGARD THEMSLVES AS DEVELOPED....OR EVOLVED
Go Gold
The Gnome
The only job you seem to have MrBond is covering up for Centamin's mismanagement - whom you continually worship for giving shareholders dwindling dividends, a flailing share price & ever rising costs - if that is your definition of a normal shareholder then you are anything but
Talking of mis /nformation 2 days ago you posted at 15.17 . in your final pragraph ," Not simple shareholders such as us".
Earlier this year you stated "I am out and not comiming back".
Yetyou seemingly ,solely intent on putting CEY down.
You are not a normal poster , far from it, .
You no far less than the instituions ,I have not seen them selling,nor have you.
Sweet dreams Cowichan , Get a better Job .
I'll give you that nobody at Sukari has been seriously injured or died lately - but the rest is utter rubbish
the elevated waste clearing is not scheduled to finish until the end of mine winddown period - as per Centamin's brand new LOM schedule found here : https://www.centamin.com/media/2996/sukari-life-of-mine-summary-oct-23.pdf
year 2024 waste to ore ratio 6.4 to 1
year 2025 waste to ore ratio 10.0 to 1
year 2026 waste to ore ratio 11.4 to 1
year 2027 waste to ore ratio 10.0 to 1
year 2028 waste to ore ratio 11.1 to 1
year 2029 waste to ore ratio 7.5 to 1
year 2030 waste to ore ratio 5.8 to 1
and forget about less ounces being very good for shareholders - less ounces means higher AISC because the ounces produced is the denominator in that equation ($600,000,000 / 500,000 ounces = $1,200 AISC vs $600,000,000 / 400,000 ounces = $1500 AISC)
how about experts like Bond stop spewing the same old misinformation to lull shareholders into a comatose state of delusion , without numbers and facts all you have is pie-in-the-sky platitudes that all is well
The number of years previous management ignored waste clearance around the open pit.
It takes an equal number of years to now clear it.
Once its finished much better days.
If gold does continue its altitude , with the Easts buying all is good.
Anything above 400K T ozs is very good for the company and holders.
And no debt. Fuel costs reduced and impeccable safety standards.
Whats not to like.
AU must be supportive of CEY price tomorrow after putting on $20 since our close at 16.30
Considering the low oz for q3 I think it held up very well today
It's been 12 quarters since Centamin last cleared 130k oz
Centamin's own estimates at the start of 2023 was not for 130k ounces in Q4
so why would shareholders expect that to be reached? unless there is a standby source of higher-than-normal grade ore waiting to be processed -
Centamin's processing plant runs at capacity 24-7 (not including during breakdowns or maintenance) so there is no means to push more ore thru the system - the only other way to increase ounces is via higher grade - if Centamin has higher grade ore just waiting for such disruptions, great - tell shareholders the same - if not - tell shareholders the shortfall is unlikely to be met
Vol. Sold 1,007,289
Sold Value £835.16k
Vol. Bought 3,049,546
Bought Value £2.53m
Thank you for that. I know a lot of mining is guess work and a bit of luck so it's difficult to predict. I noticed that about the extra trucks (5 I think?) as well -----so hoping they will be moving a fair bit of gold in them! A couple of monster nuggets would be nice.
Obviously we only have an idea of what we are being told, but as you have pointed out, several of those things should make things easier and lower costs.
Surely it is a positive that these steps are being taken-----along with extending the solar and connecting to the grid. Lowering costs should increase profit margins.
I also have it in my head that they were working on a POG of $1850 this year, and I think we have been above that for a lot of the time.
I suppose we just wait for some good news and that the Q4 figures are good.
I'd like golden toe caps for my boots, not golden coffin nails!
Everything else I totally agree with
Hitting today’s high.
Currently circa $1972 and rising.
THE Mill or one of them may have been down for a while, would slow down processing, but not stop it completely, with all respect to you Dasut.
Paul It is way too early for forecasts from anyone outside of the Centamin teams given the new mine plan is only just known to us but given that the open pit now has the flexibility of mining ore from several faces, actually processing more of the low grade ores by placing on heap leach pads, lower strip ratios over the next 15 months, reductions of operational costs, upgrading of underground equipment, waste contract ending during this period, additional trucks in the open pit.
I have confidence that the mine is now moving in the right direction but the initial proof will be that the flexibility enables the mine to make up the 3rd quarter shortfall and that efficiencies reduce costs.
All this said the sales values of gold (OK some protection), is all important.
Tibbs only a good point if mill was down for a month hence we need to ascertain how long, to have an idea what kick start they have going into the 4th quarter.
Yes, fair point 3bear - Time will tell as always.
Good point Dasut, very good point!
Thank you M.Henderson,
I have emailed Centamin IR and FTI the PR company if I don't receive a satisfactory response ans explanation then I shall be asking for the regulator to investigate this issue
Mhendersen I get why the repairs might not have been scheduled but can you let us know where you heard that the mill was down for 30 days?
If they produced 101,000 ounces in 2 months then they should have ore sitting on the ROM containing at least another 30,000 ounces, available for processing from 1st October.
Hmmmm, I've been a member on this board for many years mhenderson, and you are the first to point to an issue before it came out in an RNS.
Of course no one here knows whether or not it was the same issue, or whether it was pot luck- but interesting nonetheless.
Unfortunately after UK market trading closes (17:00UK tonight).
There is an interesting post by Trader 465 on the ADVN Chat Room, it is not yet answered.
"Doropo is years away from contributing to EPS. The important question is what will EPS be for 2023? Anyone done any 2023 EPS calculations?"
It made me think also of free cash flow and next year's dividend. Has anyone any ideas?
Mrtibbles
Thank you for your post
Centamin Investor Relations replied to you before ( We are not aware of the news you are referring to.) while Horgan now referring to this issue in the Q3 report, so its better to find a way to escalating this away from them.
Hi Paul,
Its been so long since we had some really good news that I no longer expect it,although should we get some it would be fantastic!
If the directors made some meaningful purchases at this level it would help!
Tibbs
Hi Rebess so while the mill was out of action they could not process ore of course but carried on truck and shovel operation and piled up the "Run of Mine" (ROM) in a heap next to the mill. Since October 1 the mill has been grinding thru this at max capacity so I expect Q4 to be a belter, in excess of 130,000oz. Likewise Q4 revenues with 60,000 of those ounces guaranteed at 1900 whatever happens to the GP, should be good news.
M Henderson,
Thank you for your post, in case you have forgotten I have reposted below my previous reply to you as the basis of it is still relevant to your latest claim that Martin Horgan is lying to share holders and indeed the market, these are serious accusations which if you can substantiate should be reported to the company and the market regulator.
I will anyway inform the company and depending on their response possibly seek the advice of the FCA
My previous reply to you
Its always easy to claim prior knowledge of an impending event post event , but I did take it seriously even though the you provided no evidence or source of the information.
In defence of Centamin they are to great extent limited by FCA regulations regarding what can be released into the public domain and so possibly they decided as the situation was already being dealt with as a matter of course there wasn't any justification for an RNS which could have influenced the market.
Just to clarify .after your claim I contacted The Head of Centamin Investor Relations, see their reply below -RE: Clarification announcement about the news circulating regarding the stopping production in Sukari for more than 10 days ?
From Centamin
We are not aware of the news you are referring to.
We had a substantial plant maintenance programme scheduled in Q1 this year, which was successfully completed as planned: https://tools.eurolandir.com/tools/Pressreleases/GetPressRelease/?ID=4275992&lang=en-GB&companycode=au-cey&v=.
For clarification, the Sukari paste-fill plant commenced commissioning in Q2, not the gravity circuit. The Sukari gravity circuit is in the design phase with a construction decision expected by the end of this year: https://tools.eurolandir.com/tools/Pressreleases/GetPressRelease/?ID=4357244&lang=en-GB&companycode=au-cey&v=.
Head of Centamin Investor Relations
So M Henderson with these facts in mind if you are still suggesting that there is some impending unannounced but detrimental news that Centamin aren't disclosing then may I suggest that rather than spreading unsubstantiated rumours on internet forums that you contact Centamin for an explanation and if you feel that their response is insufficient then to refer your claims to the FCA.
In the meantime I will inform Centamin Investor Relations that you may be in contact with them.