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We need dovish fed Tony, anything other and this will go for a lot longer and will not be “the bottoming process”- costs have to drop.
I hope you all submitted your questions for the 30th October
I certainly hope that you are right Tornado!
Agreed Razor's & Rebess,
They needed to surprise over the last quarter, had they done so then the share price may well have risen by a respectable amount now because people would have not wanted to miss out.
Unfortunately It seems that Centamin has morphed back into its old guise of treating share holders like mushrooms and glossing over the true facts, but despite a slick presentation with the pet corporate analysts onside the market hasn't been fooled and is punishing the share price!
Very bad form Centamin, time to start delivering more than promises sometime whenever in the future and deliver some really good results with reduced CAPEX and AISC!
That’s what I’ve been saying for months and yet some persist in simply seeing issue as a cey one
On 3 year graphs Endeavour mining , Shanta Gold and Centamin have outperformed Fresnillo, AAZ, HoC, Sol Gold, Hummingbird and GGP by a reasonable margin. On a 3 month graph HoC and Shanta Gold have outperformed other UK listed precious miners with Centamin and Endeavour holding joint third place.
The problem is not so much with Centamin as it is to do with all UK precious metal listed stocks. None are higher than their listing 12 months ago.
Centamin has a lot of intermediate positives for 2024. It is likely in a bottoming process. The most it may go on for is around a month. The next rally for Centamin could well deliver a 25-30p increase on the current price.
This is not in reaction to your comment Rebess, just my opinion on the matter in general.
No matter what way Centamin tried to dress it up the company missed their Q3 guidance, and this is being reflected in the share price.
I think unless there’s something positive in Mondays conference call or in the time thereafter, I think the market won’t credit the pps until April when the Q1 2024 numbers are released which according to recent guidance should be circa 125k ounces.
I think the current price is an unfair disgrace, but I guess we are where we are.
Sadly April is the first definite marker where the price should rise failing anything prior.
Alas it’s PM’s- cos we are a stock and most are suffering - my stop loss cut in earlier today - twice in row I’ve lost in day trades- tough market at the mo, crypto going well though as is gold .
Just an opinion, but I think Centamin trashing its credibility in recent years and blowing its piggy-bank reserves has a lot to do with market-sentiment here.
Pual
It is rather odd.
Suggest we have a major shareholder selling... could be taking a profit off the table (LT shareholder?) or could just be rebalancing the portfolio using other peoples money.
All the rubbish around the globe must be supporting gold, and it does look like the players are trying to expand the war efforts in Europe (Glad we live in Australia, people still dont now we exist)
I dont think Doropo is a dog, and do think the CEY team has the capacity to deliver the project...they have more than Doropo in Ivory Coast, and it is a good geological place to be hunting for gold ...
I dont think the sky is falling ... but isnt the media having a ball ... they did a cracking job with COVID and now back on the old playground, Russia, US, Israel, Middle East, China steaming ships thru the Suez, Hospitals being bombed (?)..be great if they were held responsible for the fear they cause...
So some heretical thoughts ... but great time to buy CEY
cheers
the gnome
Paul it needs some thing positive both in terms of increased ounces and news. Neither of which CEY is doing. Moribund.
might well be a better bet than centamin !
the centamin hare price remains well and truly '******ed" despite the pog nearing $2000, i suppose it shows the the market isn't convinced, but then ir have gone into silent mode and the fti outfit appears to be pretty clueless to say the least, although too be fair they are likely both working to a remit that involves censorship of the true facts and instead are slick presentations that involve kicking the can down the road promising better times sometime in the future unless of course there are more unexpected pit wall collapses or any other excuse!
"doropo'"they can't even sort out eygpt properly and yet they talk about chucking millions into a west african project?
What will it take to get this share moving upwards?
It seems that even the jump in gold isn't doing much, after that rise and fall back in the share price the other week.
I keep muttering to myself ----"Waste removal contract coming to an end, AISC falling ,gold price up" --------but what will it take?
Is there a problem with UK gold miners' prices? gold price is up again today and we are still down? Are we waiting for us market to open? It happened last Friday and now today???
Major European stock exchanges traded flat to higher in the premarket on Monday as investors braced for a week packed with corporate earnings. In the coming days, the European Central Bank is also expected to reveal its latest monetary policy decision.
The DAX and the FTSE 100 stood flat at 8:02 am CET, while the CAC 40 edged up 0.07% and the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.33% at the same time.
The euro was down 0.18% against the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for 1.05765. The pound traded 0.13% below the greenback and went for 1.21489 simultaneously.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AY
Happy Monday y’al
Projects at Capital Ltd (CAPD), previously known as Capital Drilling, are on track but the market is giving no credit to its investment portfolio, says Berenberg.
Analyst Richard Hatch retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and increased the target price from 169p to 173p on the Citywire Elite Companies AA-rated mining services company, which closed unchanged at 77p last week but are down 20% this year.
A third-quarter update showed revenue slightly below Berenberg estimates, but it observed that ‘key mining and drilling projects are on track’ and the group ‘also provided an investment portfolio update, noting an increase in value by $5.7m to $47.8m’.
‘Capital’s holding of Allied Gold, which listed during the third quarter, with a market capitalisation of CAD1.3bn, was worth $10m as of 30 September,’ said Hatch.
‘Overall we view this as a steady update from Capital, but we highlight the positive investment portfolio update which is 25% of its market cap and given no credit in its valuation, in our view.’
Thank you Dasut for that insight!
Tornadotony Shanta a mining company formed in 2005 a company looking for a new CEO and struggling to produce 25,000 ounces a qtr. Market value of £110 million. AIM listed SP less than 11 pence.
West Kenya has been promising for quite some time and I visited the region back in the late 1990's and we all got excited when Barrick became involved but they sold to Shanta in 2020 so I wish Shanta luck because the grades look amazing.
Singida is new but a relatively small resource "So far".
My view is a neat junior but doubt it would fit into Centamin's core business plans.
Hi Tornado,
I understand from a mining professional that it all depends on the cash flow performance of Shanta.
Once you have that information then compare the current reserve grade with historical processed grade which will give a good idea about how attractive the company is.
Also look at prospective remaining life of mine.
Hi Tornado,
On first impressions your idea makes a lot more sense than trying to develop Doropo!
Last updated: 2023/10/21 at 11:27 PM
Egyptian government plans to borrow EGP 1.263tn from local market
Egypt’s Ministry of Finance aims to issue 52 T-bond tenders worth EGP 1.186tn and 26 T-bond bids worth EGP 41.5bn between October and December 2023. This reflects the government’s need for short-term liquidity.
These government securities are offered through 15 banks participating in the “primary dealers” system in the primary market.
https://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2023/10/21/egyptian-government-plans-to-borrow-egp-1-263tn-from-local-market-in-q2-fy-2023-24/
(Google says that is the equivalent of $41 Billion US dollars - all from in-country banks)
a result of foreign funding sources disappearing due to risk of default, S&P the latest credit rating agency to sound the alarm just yesterday
Oct 21, 2023
S&P Global Ratings has downgraded Egypt's rating further into negative territory, citing the slow progress being made on monetary and structural reforms.
The country's long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings were revised to “B-” from “B”, which is “highly speculative” and is six levels below investment grade, the New York-based ratings agency said on Friday.
Non-investment grade makes it more difficult for a country to access capital markets and raise funding that it needs when it wants to borrow.
S&P said the slow pace of the reforms has delayed the disbursement of multilateral and bilateral funds “critical to covering Egypt's high external funding needs”.
“The costs of delay include a foreign currency shortage, a wide gap between the official and informal exchange rates, lower remittance inflows and weaker private sector confidence and growth,”
S&P said it could lower its ratings on Egypt further if authorities fail to implement the macroeconomic reforms required to reduce the country's economic imbalances and to unlock multilateral and bilateral funding.
“We could also lower the ratings if the government's already elevated interest costs rise further, increasing the risk of a distressed debt exchange,” it said.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2023/10/21/sp-revises-egypts-rating-lower-on-slow-progress-of-fiscal-reforms/
Hi Tornadotony,
Interesting strategy. I haven't dived into Shanta's numbers so couldn't comment on that aspect but the part about selling Doropo to an existing WA producer sounds plausible. Doropo made more sense when the Batie/Konkera complex of deposits right across the border with Burkina was the plan - the combined metrics making both more affordable and longer lived - but since that is no longer the strategy the economics need to be thoroughly reassessed.
That said, waiting until the literal last second before the main Doropo concession expires ( without possibility of renewal ) as Horgan is currently doing by pushing the DFS out to mid 2024 will doom any possible sale to another miner. How that is tolerated (nay, lauded) by some shareholders I don't comprehend
Cowichan
My view on Doropo was made before. I believe they should sell Doropo and buy Shanta Gold outright. Suppose it cost them $250M to buy Shanta Gold and they get $25M for Doropo. They will have an asset that delivers 90,000 ounces plus a year for the next 5 years. This would give 550,000 ounces net to Centamin plus they would have a major West Kenya asset that competes with g/t gold grades we have seen with Sukari underground mine in the past and is far more promising to develop. I estimate Centamin would build a net surplus of $700M in the bank if they bought Shanta Gold. I can not understand why they are not doing it. Doropo is for an existing West African miner to develop. Centamin should stick to being an east African mining company.
Cowichan I don't disagree with any of the numbers or caveats. Input from Horgan himself at the stage of a prefeasibility study I think would be minimal other than directional and an outline by way of a questions to justify future development of the resource. As far as I can see nothing hidden from people like you and I should we want to read and digest the report.
There are many vague numbers reported and to be honest I wouldn't expect much different from the brief that all of the consulting teams have when putting some flesh around the bare bones of a pre feasibility study.
At this stage people like my old team would be asked for numbers that relate to the Life cycle costings of an estimated fleet of equipment based on annual tonnage.
At DFS stage there might be some more information to go on but until someone actually produces a mine plan with a pit layout it is extremely difficult to provide anywhere near some good estimates.
So I would only ever treat a PFS as a good guide risky business this mining lark.
The reason why I feel Doropo is a goer is because the wording the numbers and the consultant company names involved are so common to the many gold mines that I was involved in when working the West African region.
Not saying I am right just saying that much is early days gut feel and the detail will only become clear when the mine plan is known for the first stages.
The teams involved will by now have a great deal more information that will be fed into the DFS at the end of which it will be decision time.
As i post....egyptian peace summit begins.
I sincerely hope that Siko will continue his contribution to this thread. - Again, down the years, he has performed outstanding service to this forum, providing an on the ground, as it is happening, Egyptian perspective, in a way that no other can. - A beautiful writer and widely respected. - Reading Cowichan's post today, and not wanting to put words into Cowichans mouth, I would say that is an apology as well as an appeal to not abandon .