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Yes, I'm out- as it's a straight gamble which I don't like to take.
I trade on my known key points, which I trust and utilise when the odds are in my favour- I'll see the lie of the land and jump if it it goes the right way and other things are ok at the time.
I hope it does go up though- as I like to trade, and won't go back in if it drops on the open, unless of course, other data directs otherwise.
I tend not to like to be in overnight in any case on PM's as a rule, as they can get hit by a big issue and can deliver a nasty unexpected (by me), RNS at 07:00 any day. I can't predict what is or isn't priced in, especially when a miss to forecast is known and already out there.
Just like in Venezuela & Lebanon. First your money becomes worthless, then its use becomes restricted, and lastly its not yours anymore, its the banks… Goodluck Egyptians 🥳
https://www.instagram.com/p/Cyih932IK8L/
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Ahram Online , Tuesday 17 Oct 2023
The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) issued new instructions on Tuesday to regulate the use of credit cards for transactions in foreign currencies abroad amid concerns of misuse.
The decision was taken as the CBE has noticed recently “misuse of credit cards by withdrawing cash from abroad despite not travelling,” the central bank said in a statement on Tuesday.
Banks have already started to inform customers of the limit of their domestic transactions.
State-owned National Bank of Egypt (NBE) limited domestic transactions to the equivalent of $250 per month.
https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/510436/Business/Economy/Egypt-sets-new-rules-on-use-of-credit-cards-abroad.aspx
Vol. Sold 881,273
Sold Value £726.32k
Vol. Bought 2,130,648
Bought Value £1.81m
Hi Rebess,
I don't know about you but I must admit I really can't recall when we last got really good news from the Centamin management and unless Martin Horgan has some good news up his sleeve then the will likely get a thorough spanking tomorrow!
No doubt about it Pardey and the rest of the shysters certainly had our legs up and dug us into a right pile of crap that we wont really be out of of until 2029, by then barring finding any rich deposits the end of the life of the Sukari mine is much closer.
Barring Horgan pulling any rabbits out of the bag it' s likely that Centamin will remain just a pile of pants for some years to come, possibly even for ever!
RE: Accountability At Centamin & Share Price Performance
25 Feb 2022 00:13
Some good points Cowichan. When the pit wall fails they obviously have to change their mine plan immediately (all hands on deck, think panic), and depending on whether what "fell in", is ore or waste or of intermediatry value, it can have different effects on AISC, head grade etc. Lets just say things are muddied and mixed somewhat. They would announce the new plan, which is what they did in their presentations including the Jan 2022 presentation. Investors should look at the ounces produced prediction, and predictions on strip ratio, AISC's etc. This is what dicates the margins, profitability etc. .. as well as the price of gold (!!, anyone got it right so far?)...
I like the figures they present, and this is what they will be held to account on. Slide 24 on the Jan presentation is one to look at. This year they are predicting higher AISC, and thank goodness for the global instability (sad comment), the gold price could exceed the cost increases, and the margins could be healthier than predicted. After, 2023 on, gut feel is CEY will be a cash cow again.
------------------------------->>>>
the January 2022 presentation goldgnome refers to can be viewed here
https://www.centamin.com/media/2477/centamin-investor-presentation-jan2022.pdf
page 24 indeed forecasts AISC coming in at $900-1175 in 2024
whereas the newest LOM plan shows AISC coming in at $1,140 - 1,220 in 2024
Now, the question is - how can CEO Horgan advise the market that in 2025 AISC will reduce to $1042 when the same 'just revised' LOM chart shows the strip ratio spiking up to 10 to 1 in 2025 (verses 6.4 to 1) in 2024 ?
These two facts are not compatible. Wouldn't you agree, goldgnome?
So your out then Steve ?
Would be a brave person to stay in for tomorrow-
Cey is a stock and falling like some other pm’s today despite the gold spiking to ~1960 today, 40usd rise at one point. We know tomorrow is a miss, but jam tomorrow…
GLA in whatever you do :-).
Let's hope that the L.O.M. message wasn't part of a good news/bad-news act. - Softening us up. - We'll know tomorrow. Please God, not another good-hiding day.
Cowichan I am not saying I am happy and certainly not laughing at the current SP but I can do nothing about the issues that have occurred but if the strip ratios from 2025 are 10:1 and above for a few years there is nothing that Horgan can do about it as it is the nature of the ore body.
What we now need to suffer is a longer wait to see what advantages the painful cost of the waste removal contract has on the production in 2024 when the report says they are going to be working with a strip ratio of 6.4:1 which gives Horgan and his team some short term credit and stay of execution, only wish the more important ore grade was more than 0.87.
I certainly am not saying that everything is great because it isn't and won't be until we start seeing the consistency of healthy profits.
News for CEE
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DJ Centamin Has Several Near-Term Drivers for Upside -- Market Talk
2023-10-18 08:46:00 AM ET (FW)
DJ Centamin Has Several Near-Term Drivers for Upside -- Market Talk
1246 GMT - Gold miner Centamin's new life-of-mine plan for its Sukari mine in Egypt provides several paths to increase its valuation, Berenberg analysts Richard Hatch and William Dalby write in a research note. "We think that Centamin is on track to create more shareholder value over the next 12 months, with plenty of catalysts/upside from the updated life-of-mine plan," the analysts say, also pointing to upcoming updates from a desert exploration program and the completion of the definitive feasibility study on the Doropo project in Ivory Coast. Centamin reports its third-quarter production figures Thursday. Berenberg keeps a buy rating on the stock, while lowering the price target to 130 pence from 147 pence. Shares are down 0.4% at 85.75 pence. (Christian.moess@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 18, 2023 08:46 ET (12:46 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.DN202310180046242023-10-18 12:46:00.000004624DJNF
GLTA,
Dan
Yep
Am I right in thinking that tomorrow - 19th - is Q3 results day?
Big respect to you for having the courage and integrity to be completely frank and honest in your presentations despite the risk of physical and verbal abuse afterwards!
Seconded!!
Some may find Crux Investor of interest the articles tend to be useful as a comparison with mining companies published quarterly updates. etc.
Over 2,200 published interviews from ~1000 publicly listed mining companies, whilst our experienced team of in-house analysts have assessed and scored 97% of mining companies listed on the major exchanges.
The vast majority of our output is made available to retail investors like yourself for FREE
https://www.cruxinvestor.com/about
Hi Mr Gnome,
Thank you for a very interesting post regarding the initial study and sampling to help decide the commercial viability of a potential and ongoing mining projects..
From my own acquaintances you aren't the first or the only mining professional that has been a recipient of insults or aggression in various forms just for asking awkward questions and giving a truly honest analysis.
Big respect to you for having the courage and integrity to be completely frank and honest in your presentations despite the risk of physical and verbal abuse afterwards!
Tibbs
Thanks Razor- time for everyone to submit their questions :-).
Centamin is pleased to announce it will host a virtual retail investor presentation on Monday, 30 October 2023. The event is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Martin Horgan, CEO, and Ross Jerrard, CFO, will give a brief presentation of the Company's recent results and developments at its Sukari Gold Mine (Egypt) and Doropo Gold Project (Côte d'Ivoire), followed by an opportunity to ask questions.
QUESTIONS
Investors are welcome to submit questions prior to the event through the Investor Meet Company platform or by emailing them directly to the Company at investor@centaminplc.com.
Live questions can be submitted during the presentation through the Investor Meet Company platform.
EVENT ACCESS
The event will start at 18:00 GMT (UK time). Please register here: https://www.investormeetcompany.com/centamin-plc/register-investor.
A replay of the event will be made available through Company's website.
Major European indexes traded higher in the premarket on Wednesday as investors focused their attention on new inflation reports from the Eurozone and the United Kingdom to be released during the morning. Markets are also awaiting a fresh batch of earnings reports from several US companies, including Netflix and Tesla.
The DAX gained 0.40% at 8:00 am CET, while the FTSE 100 increased 0.16%. The CAC 40 went up 0.09% and the Eurostoxx 50 rose 0.15%.
The euro was flat against the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for $1.05820. The pound sterling was also flat and went for $1.21859 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JJ
Happy Hump y’al
Gold currently + .67 %
AusIMM Melbourne Branch, 2013 7
In the 1970s, a study for the World Bank showed
that in the first year of operation after
commissioning, 60% of the mines and 70% of the
treatment plants surveyed achieved a production
rate of less than 70% of design capacity
...(gulp)
and so on ... who counts?.. the shareholders and investors
one of the problems with mine development is that a lot of money is invested on information which is sp**** (drilling, 0.003 % of the volume of the orebosy is sampled), directionally biased (steep and commonly in one dip direction) and sometimes of variable quality (geological logging for example)..and then when you can get to metaullurgical plant design...well that is extremely sp**** information inferred by use of non linear look up tables from geology (read above). in fact i have often wondered how any of the planners can put their hand on their heart and say they think they are within 15%...in realith most of them do not perform to feas study specs!?!
https://www.amcconsultants.com/experience/why-feasibility-studies-fail
https://minassist.com.au/why-feasibility-studies-fail-a-summary/
this is a classic ... so rarely done by the mining industry, and even more rarely (for obvious reasons) made public
https://dokumen.tips/documents/why-feasibility-studies-fail-melbourne201302presentation.html?page=2
for a simple steeply dipping tabular orebody the stripping ratios increase as the depth of the pit increases. basic maths
if you have an irregular orebody, then the stripping ratio can "wander", and be a function obviously of ore geometry, geotechnical elements (steep faults some which might be missed by steep drilling)..but in general there will be a trend of increasing strip ratio with depth.
if you have surprises like you develop into a hitherto unknown steep fault (it happens), you can have wall failure and the stripping ratio goes up...as waste tonnes goes up ...
and on it goes ...
i have given a few talks about dishonesty (and a few related issues) at conferences, only to be mugged in the car park or a public bar not long after ... cest la vie ....
regards
the gnome
When compared to the extreme suffering in the wars of Gaza, Ukraine, Yemen and indeed all the other areas of the world where armed conflict is an ongoing even as we view this forum we can count ourselves to be so fortunate and so rich in so many ways by comparison.
Dasut,
Thank you for your your reply and opinion, Kees Dekker has always been of the opinion since 2016 that it is the underground grades that were never regarded seriously enough, yet they are of paramount importance to supplement the poorer open pit grades if the Sukari mine is ever going to shine!
Considering the gigantic task, time scale and associated expense to rectify the many years of errors by the previous management of the Sukari operation its no wonder if some members and long term share holders are frustrated.
So you literally went from if the strip ratio doesn't come down Horgan should lose his job
to
everything is great now, trust me, i know what i'm talking about
that's laughable
what will your view be next week, i wonder
Cowichan, Of course we can have it both ways it is called moving with the times and the all important mine flexibility coming into play. The new mine plan explains far more than we knew previously and the proof will now be in the future profits.
Yes the open pit production costs will be higher but so will be production ounces but other costs are looking to be reduced.
If Sukari was all about the open pit with grades of 0.9 and strip ratios at 10 then it would be marginal but Sukari is also a good grade underground mine hence being quoted as a world class ore body.
Horgan and his team have now set themselves targets and these need to be met or improved upon so next year is crucial to their and the mines success.