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Goldgnome - oi mate, you stole my thunder!
Heads up, I'm going to basically repeat what you said in my next post re: getting the resource update out at the right moment - because it bears repeating.
As mentioned previously MandA is the way the Gold Industry growth pat, once they have done the brownfields exploration path.
The Hymn Book?
Step 1. Put out your resoure upgrades
Step 2. Announce a new discovery
That is prove there is plenty of ife in the old dog, get the SP up and away we go.
So Kirkland Lakes Open Pit upgrade was interesting in time and amount....
"Kirkland Lake Gold (TSX: KL; NYSE: KL; ASX: KLA) has released a mid-year updated resource estimate for its Detour Lake mine in Ontario, adding another 10.1 million oz. of contained gold. Measured and indicated resources are now 572 million tonnes grading 0.80 g/t gold, totalling 14.7 million contained ounces.
The inferred resource has grown, too. The estimate is now 1.1 million contained oz. in 48.3 million tonnes grading 0.81 g/t gold.
Resources were calculated using a 0.5-g/t gold cut-off grade. Provision was also made to stockpile low-grade material for future processing rather than treat it as waste.
The resource update used data from 365 holes or 185,000 metres of surface diamond drilling completed in the last 18 months. (Kirkland Lake bought out Detour Gold Mines in January 2020.) Another 100,000 metres are planned by the end of the year."
More to come I suspect
good luck shareholders
best
the Gnome
Sotolo tell me something I don't know.
Like where you buy your Crystal Balls.
Good night Sweet dreams.
Mr Bond, there were quite a few predictions that gold would fall, including from some members of this board and there still are. Many pundits, like Andrew Maguire talk gold up, but the truth is it is in a bear market and a tumbling stock market and recession may not immediately help. My view is that although it has lower to go if inflation takes hold, falling real rates will lift gold, but maybe the recession will turn out to be big enough to hit gold, who knows but for now if the trend is your friend it is on down as for the last year sadly. However hopefully cey will up ounces and lower costs lifting it from current low profits despite the gold fall. Just imho
A 'Merger Of Equals' ?
- @agnicoeagle loaded with debt
- @KirklandLakeGld debt free
- upon merger $858 million in cash from KL shareholders will transfer to AE shareholders
- given a ZERO PREMIUM this deal is NOT in the best interest of KL
- the only winner? New Star-Struck CEO Tony Makuch
https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1442947185197260802
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Not sure if any of Centamin's shareholders are invested in Kirkland Lake or Agnico Eagle but here's my take on the situation...
PS
I'll share more on how eerily similar KL's 'Detour Gold' open pit scenario is to Sukari's - I trust our 'reveal' the real resource moment will be very different when it arrives!
Yes Dasut Ams comes to mind as number 1.
Tibbs something we must also appreciate is that the current contract that Capital has at Sukari is just moving waste and this is way off being a contract miner and there are far more experienced contract miners currently operating in West Africa.
Austerity
During the period of austerity that followed the 2008 economic crash, the Department of Health and Social Care budget continued to grow but at a slower pace than in previous years. Budgets rose by 1.4 per cent each year on average (adjusting for inflation) in the 10 years between 2009/10 to 2018/19, compared to the 3.7 per cent average rises since the NHS was established.
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/nhs-in-a-nutshell/nhs-budget
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/dec/08/uk-library-budgets-fall-by-25m-in-a-year
https://fullfact.org/health/spending-english-nhs/
https://cpag.org.uk/sites/default/files/files/Austerity%20Generation%20FINAL.pdf
Quite agree Mr Gnome,
In the past all big companies handled their own transport and distribution, they had their own fleet and maintenance facilities, they hired and also trained their own drivers and there was a two way commitment between company and employee.
Then in the quest cut costs and increase profits companies sacked their own staff to use so called logistics specialists. usually shi(ts who just use agencies to supply their staff as and when!
Now the drivers have to pay for HGV training and are regarded he logistics companies as part of the truck rather than a person!
Exactly the same has happened with public transport all over the UK as a result of Nicolas Ridley's deregulation in the eighties under Thatcher which resulted in the asset stripping of municipal and publicly bus and rail companies and also because it was a way of getting at the unions and cutting staff pay and conditions of employment!
Most of this present chaos has been brought about by the free markets asset stripping policies of the Conservative party
Thatcher bribed voters with 40% discounts on buying council houses and sold the public services & utilities to the public who failed to understand they were buying what they already owned!
The answer is to renationalise all the power utilities,water companies public transport,start building local authority owned social housing and make the big tech,Facebook, Google and other international companies like Amazon, Starbucks, McDonalds, etc that are behaving like parasites start paying the right amount of tax, or kick them out!
The private sector and certainly the Tory government has now proven they not to be trusted or capable when it comes to providing essential and public services!
Agree, no chance- the whole point in them contracting them in the first place was to have a flexible contract company which is going very well.
Hi Dasut,
From a recent conversion I had with an exceptionally well informed person I would say there is as much chance of finding rocking horse poo as Centamin bidding for Capital!
There is no chance of any of the £300 million being spent on anything like this because as you rightly point out there is no need or any sound business reason to do so.
Hi Mr Bond,
Exactly that, its the opinion amongst wholesale traders that there is a type of unofficial amnesty until early next year for the Comex clearing bank's to cover their unallocated open paper positions for fear of the consequences to the sector and the markets of just pulling the rug out from under their feet!
There is still the div yield to.encourage buying at these prices. Some of the best in ftse
I totally agree.
For Centamin to buy Capital would go down like a lead balloon in the market.
Also agree to the Nan on the street $300m is a fortune but a mining company can make mince meat of it in no time.
Sorry why would a mining company buy a contract mining company, just stay as an owner miner. Capital doesn't have a fleet of mining equipment in West Africa so there would still need to be a major capital investment. Also if they spend 210 on Capital they will still need funds to spend on the processing plant etc at Doropo and ABC.
Won't take long to spend the 300 million when they start developing new mines and they will be looking for reliable strong contact miners, drilling contractors and much much more.
Agnico Eagle to buy Canadian gold rival in $13.4B deal - all stock - 1% 'Premium'
touted as a merger of equals...
The merged miner will use Agnico’s name and have a board and management team drawing from both companies. Tony Makuch, currently Kirkland’s chief executive officer, will take the top job once the deal is completed, while Agnico CEO Sean Boyd will become executive chair.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/agnico-eagle-to-buy-canadian-gold-rival-in-13-4b-deal-1.1658434
------------------------------>>>
My Thoughts:
So what is in it for shareholders? Nothing. Most serious gold mining investors were already invested in both.
Bottom Line: It's becoming merge or shrink and become more irrelevant.
Also, Kirkland buying Detour a year or so ago was a survival move - allowing itself to be swallowed for ZERO benefit to shareholders is another survival move IMO
All I can say is thank goodness for the uncertainty in Egypt (court case, pit wall movement, etc) - it's kept (keeping) us from a similar fate (my apologies to those Centamin short term holders still underwater)
Yes Razors strange times.
When you look back at all the predictions for Gold prices in 2021 , none wewe right.
I think Basel 3 and the dumping of paper to cover the institutions until end of year is playing a major part of it all.
We shall soon see.
But what do I know?
Apart from better times ahead for Centamin.
I bought a lot of Centamin last December thinking they were cheap at circa £1.12
I’ve lately gotten access to available funds but because I’ve been watching Cey stagnate for nearlya year, I don’t feel any motivation to buy today. Gold isn’t going to turn because I’ve bought some cheap miners shares.
I remember watching for months at $1300 and couldn’t believe it continued to rise to $2k.
I sort of feel Centamin will spirt on the 30th but will loose it’s legs in a day or two with gold out of form.
Strange sitting with funds and the share price cheap and I seriously don’t feel like jumping in.
A word I like to use is ' muddling along' that is what most of us do for most of the time .. until of course a huge and sometimes unexpected event happens. Like Covid last year.
Most governments did respond to cushion the blow, but in doing so, they have no run out of all ammunition.. others prospered from it though . I made a huge amount of money last year with my contrarian 'recovery' strategy for stocks. .
This hasn't been repeated so far this year , with my selection of Centamin , so reading your posts on their prospects goldgnome brings me hope..
Regarding the unexpected shocks .. well the Dow , S&P.and Nasdaq are all extremely overvalued right now , by any measure you choose . The fact that it will crash at some point cannot be in doubt. It will happen. but that doesn't mean that in the mean time it won't continue to get even higher , but it's a bit like an elastic band , you can stretch and stretch it for so long, but then one of two things happens , it either springs back to past its starting point and we have all been there , or it snaps completely ..I am 63 now and that hasn't yet happened in my lifetime, so I have no idea of what that scenario will look like
I guess we all should invest in a little gold , as a last line of defence against an oncoming apocolypse ..
Or maybe I am being too dramatic and instead things will continue to " muddle along "
There is potential for a lot to happen. There are a lot of unhappy people, unemployed, underemployed, and employed but have not had a pay rise in years, etc and v little on the horion, (if they keep their jobs!). The traditional way of justifying a pay rise is a producivity increase, and this is almost impossible to imagine. Bureaucracy has gone mad, logistics is a disaster area, negatively impacting on, stock, supply lines, production, Universities have been shown to be a tad short on the money in their business model turning out graduates who do not know anything about entrepreneurism let laone how to do things...(not to mention management prowess), woke has spoke and continues to do so. Thanks goodness for commodity prices in Oz. I am titillated by the supersized evaluations on the new technology companies, most of which appear to have a very thin moat, and I guess it follows a short life, so best to ramp and dump as quick as possible.
Possibly a tad jaded commentary,
Whichever way they wiggle is going to cause more discomfort, to a a lot of people who are not at all comfortable now.
best
the Gnome
Needs pog back above $1800 and im sure the sp will rise back over £1
European indexes were slightly higher in premarket trading on Tuesday as investors continued to focus on the political situation in Germany. Olaf Scholz is hoping to form a government with the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) after his Social Democratic Party (SPD) narrowly won the parliamentary elections with 25.7% of the vote. However, coalition talks could take months as the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) which secured 24.1% will also seek to form a government with the two smaller parties.
The DAX rose 0.18% at 7:24 am CET, the FTSE 100 was up 0.09% at the same time and the CAC 0.11% gained at 7:11 am CET.
The euro was flat against the dollar, going for 1.16996 at 7:25 am CET, while the pound added 0.11% compared to the US currency to sell for 1.37137 at the same time.
Breaking the News / NP
A bigger risk might be the resulting hyper inflation as governments wont be able to afford the INTEREST payments on their debt , let alone wind it down .
Something will have to give ...nothing like a bout of hyper inflation to erode the real value of debt ..doesn't come without a cost elsewhere of course . In the end it's all a zero sum game .
I do find your comments on this reassuring and balanced. ...Whilst it might be too early to say , I think there may be signs that the share price is bottoming out , and that one piece of good news , released in a less than discreet way, could bring about an upswing in price momentum .
At the very least , in the absence of any bad news , there wouldn't appear to be any reasons to justify any further falls , apart from the gold price of course ..because at the moment, this appears to be the major price determinant.
Not necessarily .. Capital reported a record interim net profit at the half year . It could very easily be set up as a decentralised but centrally controlled upstream asset. Furthermore Capital has contracts with most other mining companies in the area . It might represent a strategic asset .
I agree it would be non core , and maybe too much of a distraction from core gold mining activity , but I wouldn't entirely dismiss it, without undertaking a preliminary due diligence review. .
Of course if the idea were to be dismissed for any of the above reasons , then there remains 30% of Centamins net asset base, cash backed, earning zero IRR