The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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CEY continues to be a laggard alas :-(.
All US markets futures up at the moment- more all time highs, except for PMs that continue to struggle.
All depends on the breakdown and commentary- so far gold seems to have held despite NFP and unemployment... for now...
80k above the 450k estimate for US hiring so gold will be hammered?
As I said- usual Whipsaw :-)
I suppose that view depends on whether you believe they are doing it for the common good, or furthering a crisis for their own gain/profit margins. They can't vaccinate poorer countries (no money in it), but there is a relentless push to vaccinate everyone in the wealthier countries regardless of whether it is of benefit to them or not (Why are they trying to vaccinate all under 20s with no scientific or medical benefit to them if not cash or otherwise ulterior motives?).
I think we often forget (Previous Centamin management, and the Nepotism in the Egyptian Government being a shining example) that corruption is everywhere, and being a Fortune 500, FTSE200 Company or otherwise does not mean that people won't either look the other way, or cover up inconvenient facts for financial and political gain.
When money is involved, the spotlight is not always enough to illuminate the shadows.
a cheery note for my first post.
nunquam,
Thanks for shareing the house build, its a good idea to use the green moistureboard in bathrooms although you are still limited with maximum tile weight. I would get em to put some hardiebacker or aqua panel in shower areas. What are you using for flooring, hardie backer do a 6x2 cement board flooring which is amazing for bathrooms. I spent months tryng to find some decent plywood in the end went with the hardifloor as marine ply as about £100 a sheet anyway. If you can get some scandinavian ply I would use that for the rest of the flooring if budget will allow.
Best of luck and keep us posted.
Hi Candid,
For somebody who claims to be so astute at picking investments you may be well advised to stay away from bargain priced gold miners, because the industry is not easy to judge in the short term, especially if you know so little about the history your chosen miner!
I dare say many of us long term investors were invested because we had no good reason not to assume that the the previous management were professionals who knew what they were doing from the available presentations and indeed the analysts who rated the future prospects for the company very highly.
When things didn't go to exactly to plan most share holders were decent enough to accept that there can often be unexpected procurances in the gold mining industry and took the word of the management that lessons would be learned for the future.
Pfizer should be ashamed of what they are charging for the covid vaccine, profiteering out of a world health crisis and yet so many of the worlds poor can't get vaccines!
Most probably Pfizer directors will be getting obscene bonuses for what exactly just doing their job for which they already enjoy handsome remuneration packages!
The NFP have been used for far too long by the FED & Wall Street to manipulate the markets and influence what happens in the rest of the world!
When is'nt the rest of the world waiting to hear the next bit of spoof from the US, if it ain't Comex ,it's NFP or some other load of US propaganda!
All manufactured FED & Wall Street utter bullsh*t, time the rest of the world gave the US two fingers!
Hi Nuquam,
Well done and thank you for sharing your project, it's worth sticking with, it will be a lovely home with a beautiful garden!
Who knows Centamin may well come good yet!
Nunquam, your home is beautiful, I like the sliding sash georgian windows plus the direct access into the garage from your kitchen for a petrol head, does it for me.
In the house detached?
Here’s to a sector correction with Centamin leading the risers.
Cheers
I was tempted to sell as price seemed to be going to dip below 90p. I may have to sell most of my Centamin shares at some stage, because ,as always ,building projects cost more than estimates.But I hope and think that in the medium term gold will be a better store of value than bit coin. But I have been wrong in the past few years about bit coin, so what do I know. Anyway link to my house build !!!! https://youtu.be/lg5726pwD-A
$ flying higher unfortunately possibly temporary blip?
NFP monthlys today- expect some volatility at that time which I think is 12:30 today not 13:30 as normal with time difference I think. Although it tends to whipsaw a bit within a small range, as headline figure comes out then the analysis of breakdown starts.
Up another £2 per ounce after £31 rise yesterday.
Shares on the major stock market indices in Europe were flat in the premarket on Friday, as the investors digested the Bank of England's (BoE) decision not to change its interest rate. European Central Bank's (ECB) Isabel Schnabel tried to ease some of the woes, underlying that the ECB is taking concerns regarding high inflation "very seriously."
On the COVID-19 front, The European Medicines Agency (EMA) urged people to get vaccinated with jab's booster dose, while the United Kingdom became the first country in the world to officially approve Merck's coronavirus drug.
The CAC 40 was flat at 7:09 am CET. Both the FTSE 100 and the German DAX were little changed at 7:26 am CET.
The euro and the pound also stood unchanged versus the dollar at 7:27 am CET, selling for 1.15520 1.34934, respectively.
Breaking the News / BU
Happy Friday y’al
Yep- as we’ve been saying all year, UNLOVED for now.
Gold down roughly 5% in a year, PMs around 30%
My main pension which is global equity based has risen around 20%
PMs profit ignored
We all hope it will change… soon…
“Also among the biggest losers are the miners Petropavlovsk, Polymetal, Centamin, Fresnillo and Hochschild. Presumably investors feel that havens such as precious metals are no longer required and that neither are their producers, although in many cases these firms are very profitable, producing cash and paying dividends.
“There are no guarantees that the performance trends of the last 12 months will continue but at least these trends give investors an idea of what is being priced in – an economic recovery, but one where inflation does not get out of hand.”
https://londonlovesbusiness.com/which-uk-stocks-have-done-best-since-pfizer-monday/
With regard to the assets held for resale ..these mainly comprise the exploration works to locate and quantify the gold resource and to evaluate and appraise the returns from the project. In that regard they will still be of value to anyone who intends to carry out subsequent mining operations .
Perhaps , there is the potential to trade this information in some way for mutual benefit ?
Just a thought ..
No I know about the previous administration, and what went on during their watch and tbh it is of little concern to me . I am only concerned with what happens from here. I wasn't invested when they were in place. ..why , were you ?
Regarding the boring details ..I do try to separate out the key points from the crackle and background noise. I miss things .. some of which are important , others less so . Conversely , I pick up on other things that may have gone unnoticed. Despite and notwithstanding my earlier remarks , nothing has changed my judgement in the soundness of my investment . I will wait ..returns will come .
Yes of course my focus is on EPS and corresponding returns. .what is wrong with that ? My point is about the integrity of the current management team. I read the posts on here and note the high level of respect they bring , nothing wrong with my reserving judgement on them until I see the fruits of their labours.
Your post just shows the need for thourough research.
Pardey now long gone gone ,was responsible for that ,by prompting from his wealthy master. N S.
There is a need to do much more boring reading Candid.
All you are interested in is getting out with a quick profit it seems.
So now you are trapped for who knows long along with many others.
Quote ,"not interested in minute details" was it ?
Thanks Cowichan for your clear and concise explanation .
My comments are as follows :
1. Like you said, the previous forfeiture of concessions and assets have already come to pass , but it does beg the question why did CEY hand over these key concessions to a 3rd party ( altairresources ) for them to exploit and realise their value .. why couldn't CEY have realised this value for themselves ..
2. Regarding the current Batie West project . I concur entirely with your views ..as an aside, when I was still researching Centamin prior to investing , I was drawn to the 27th May RNS because it began with the headline that the West Africa review had identified 'profit potential' .
It was only when I read the full transcript that I discovered Batie West had been ruled out due to insufficient IRR and had therefore been classified as 'Non Core '. This information was disguised within the main text. I can remember thinking at the time that this wasn't in line with what the headline had suggested.
Like you though and despite this , I did agree that Cey were right NOT to pursue the project on their own . They have scare resources in terms of mining equipment and manpower , and that which they do have should be allocated to the higher margins on offer at Sukari .
I also agreed that seeking out a partner to extract what value they could from BW was a good strategy.
What I didn't realise , until you pointed it out , is that the exploitation license ends this month . I went back and read the RNS and discovered this fact in the footnotes .. To me this is dishonest . There is absoloutely no way of seeking out a partner to take this forward with, at this late stage , because for all intents and purposes , the deadline has now passed.
If what I am asserting is correct, then the amount held as assets for resale ( $ 36 million ) is now valueless and will have to be written off.
I find this extremely hard to believe , because they must have known this when the accounts were being prepared .
I think the obvious action now should be , ( have been ), to attempt to extend the duration of the exploitation license . Are they doing this ? ( If not why not) , if only to buy time to find a suitable partner or sit on it themselves, in case the gold price reaches say $2,500 to $3,000 an ounce , (unlikely but not impossible ) where the project would then become a viable one
Disenchantment is the best word to describe how I feel about these events .
Local Egyptian billionaire, Naguib Sawiris, owner of AKH Gold, had one investment that initiated Egypt’s gold boom. Sawiris’s investment brought $4.1 million in USD to the region for investing in gold mining. These funds allowed for more contracts for workers with increased pay.
Gold Production and Export Contribution to Jobs
The primary mine in Egypt is the Sukari Mine. This mine opened in 2009 and started operations with a minimum of 850 workers. This number remains stable, but with Egypt’s decrease in gold exports, there is concern about employment availability.
The Sukari Mine is owned and operated by Centamin, a “mineral exploration, development, and mining company.” Centamin was founded in 1970, and as of 2021, employs more than 3,000 people. The lowest salary recorded for a current Centamin position is 4,000 Egyptian pounds, slightly more than 250 USD a month. Estimating with 4.5 weeks in a month, five days in a workweek, and eight hour days, 250 USD a month means that some Centamin employees live fifteen cents above the extreme poverty level, at 1.40 USD per day. Prospects for salary improvements were good between 2018-2020, but since Egypt’s decrease in gold exports, the funds are likely to tighten and threaten more workers with extreme poverty.
https://www.borgenmagazine.com/egypts-gold-exports/
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Is this 'Sawiris Propaganda' a sign of what's coming?
I think CEY is secondary to gold at the moment. Lots of investors (including ME) view CEY and other miners as a geared exposure to gold, not that interested in minute details on the company, as long as it's solid.