The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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I think price and volume are equally important.
This is due to the fact that revenue ( and profits ) is the product of them both
I like to equate things back to impact on earnings per share ..
Each $100 rise or fall in the price of gold, increases (or decreases ) the EPS by 3.7 cents per share .(if my rough calculations are correct ) .quite substantial in terms of the previous forecast EPS of 10 cents per share for the whole year .(assuming constant production levels )
$100 is about 5.5 % plus or minus the current price of gold .
On the other hand if production rises by 5.5% from 400,000 to 422,000 but gold price remains the same then EPS will rise , but only by 1 .5 cents per share
The reason is because extra production ounces incur extra CASH production costs of circa $1,000 per ounce (with fixed costs remaining the same) , whereas increases or decreases in gold prices increase EPS by the whole amount if that makes sense
What we really need is both higher gold prices and higher production levels to state the obvious.
On Monday, Ukraine conducted fresh military exercises outside its capital, Kiev. This was accompanied by fresh airstrike drills along its border region today. The escalation comes as thousands of Russian troops remain massed along the border between the two countries.
The head of Ukraine's defence intelligence agency, Brigadier General Kyrylo Budanov, warned an invasion could come early next year.
The latest drills conducted by Ukraine have involved airborne troops.
Ukraine has also moved armoured personnel carriers into positions within its territory,
The combined units then conducted a simulated attack on an enemy target,
The drills were filmed and the footage showed the landing of troops supported by helicopters and other aircraft.
Ukrainian Brigadier General Kyrylo Budanov announced that intelligence reports suggest that more than 92,000 Russian troops have gathered in the area of the border between both nations.
Ukraine stated that the troops could be preparing for an attack by the end of January 2022.
This isn't about the changing fortunes of Cey, it's about reinforcing the Liberium brand in the investors domain..think of it in terms of free advertising
Today Wed
WTI crude rose more than 4% over the last 24 hours to retake $79/bbl after the Biden administration announced plans to release 50M barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Reserve, along with China, Japan, India, South Korea and the U.K. While the move was meant to lower prices, the volumes announced were much less than the market was expecting and would need to be sustained over a longer period of time. Many of the barrels will also need to be returned by the refiners who buy them, leaving traders forecasting tighter balances.
Quote: "I told you before that we're going to take action on these problems. That's exactly what we're doing," President Biden said from the White House. "It will take time, but, before long, you should see the price of gas drop where you fill up your tank, and in the longer term, we will reduce our reliance on oil as we shift to clean energy."
Meanwhile, a large portion of the barrels is set to be exported to China and India. That's because the supplies will comprise of sour crude, a type of oil that many American refiners are avoiding due to its high sulfur content, which makes it more expensive to process. Foreign buyers are also attracted to the oil since it's cheaper than the global Brent benchmark.
Go deeper: Following the decision, some are even referring to the U.S. emergency stockpile as the Strategic Political Reserve, with the president under pressure to tamp down inflation. OPEC+ is also scheduled to meet in a few weeks and could unveil a counterpunch if the group feels threatened. The cartel would need to give up two months of output increases to offset the 50M barrel release, after snubbing several requests from Washington to pump more oil. The U.S. national average price for a gallon of gas was $3.40 on Tuesday, according to AAA, more than a $1 increase from a year ago.
Fair comment's Somnamna,
Martin Horgan is a very decent chap, professionally experienced and very capable of doing what needs to be done at Sukari.
I once worked in the public transport industry and I feel confident that when Martin Horgan's bus finally arrives it will have been worth waiting for and the ride will be comfortable and very reliable for many years to come!
I agree far too much worrying about the daily POG and lets face whichever US president has been in office the FED & the Wall Street cartel have always hammered the POG to promote the dollar.
Martin Horgan is a man who only has one way of doing things, properly!
Anyone would think Liberium have an alterior motive.
Seems a little strange reiterations then changing by just a few pence. While the coverage is still sell. Why does 88p target need to be changed to 87p strikes me as odd. Can't think of any other stocks where a 1p change would require an update.
24 Nov Sell 87.00
16 Nov Sell 87.00
19 Oct Sell 88.00
23 July Sell 82.00
13 July Sell 82.00
I agree the people really desperate for a mirraculoue rise in the SP are traders and short term investors. But with all farness Hogan cannot rush anymore the production .
They have put in place measures to cure the predicament,and offset that by continued divi's.
Which give reassuance to Institution as well as private investors.
The real graft moving waste ,is in place. It's difficult for patience but a little more of that is needed.
Once production starts rising then lower costs ,the new prospect can be futher invested in WA and Egypt.
Although I suspect prospects close to Sukari are already being looked at carefully.
IMO.
Easy there Mr T you seem to be missing the main point of my post which is there is endless discussion about price of gold, conspiracies and daily share price when the real issue is number of ounces mined.
This used to be a "headline topic" but was swept under the carpet when Centamin ran into production problems and has not been resurrected.
Daily gold price and daily share price is of interest for short term traders but not so much for me as an investor, provided gold price stays within a predicted range. Other things being equal it is the number of ounces mined that will drive free cash flow.
There are lots of good things being done by Martin Horgan and his team but I have the feeling of waiting for a bus that is late, hasn't arrived yet but may arrive at some point in the future.
The present forecast ounces per annum is an uninspiring annual production range. What I am missing is greater focus and emphasis of what is being done to ramp up production including more detailed production targets and reporting of ounces mined.
I will do as you suggest and send an email to Centamin.
Why not put your question to Martin either on writing or at the next webinar?
Martin Horgan is doing what needs to be done.
Perhaps you have an alternative plan, if so then why share it, or put it forward to Martin Horgan and the board?
Hi Bob,
Thank you Informative post, a m increasing number of people , myself included avoid most of the TV & mainstream radio news broadcasts, just far too depressing, I usually listen to Radio 3 and the World Service which does at least have some programs that offer hope and feature some of the marvelous work being carried out, lots of the projects involve ordinary caring people just trying to make the world a better place.
Unfortunately Boris thinks it's acceptable to behave and lie as PM just like he has all through his journalist career and just like most dictators (Hitler. Franco, Mussolini) he has surrounded himself with a cabinet of bunch of toady, lying, sycophantic, self serving, selfish opportunists most of whom in any reasonable government would never have risen to such levels of high office but would have been instead sidelined out of the way.
The UK is “dangerously close” to becoming an “elected dictatorship” under Boris Johnson, veteran Tory Ken Clarke has warned – as he branded the prime minister’s handling of Brexit clashes “laughable”.
The former cabinet heavyweight lashed out at Mr Johnson’s disregard for “constitutional constraints”, calling his party “more nationalist than at any time in my lifetime”.
“He gets angry if the courts or parliament try to interfere. As the elected prime minister, he thinks he should not be impeded in these ways,” Lord Clarke said.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/johnson-ken-clarke-elected-dictatorship-b1960009.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcdLYZAgMXM
On a lighter note, or possibly, uncomfortably nearer the dangerous realty!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPmn_Bzb7nw
European stocks rose in premarket trading on Wednesday as investors digested upbeat business activity data from the euro area and awaited business climate figures from Germany.
The FTSE 100 rose 0.20% at 6:55 am CET, the DAX climbed 0.39% and the CAC 40 added 0.41% at the same time.
The euro dipped 0.06% against the dollar to go for 1.1243 at 7:05 am CET, while the pound traded flat against the greenback, selling for 1.33821 at the same time.
Breaking the News / NP
Happy hump y’al
Gold recovery pls!
Fluctuations in gold price is a smoke screen and not something Centamin can do to influence.
The real issue is number of ounces of gold mined and sold with a direct correlation between increased ounces and lower costs per ounce. Given the fixed nature of the costs more ounces equals more profits in total and per ounce.
So Mr Horgan what are you doing in the shorter term to increase the number of ounces mined?
Hi Guys
Apologies , How bl....y smug was my post after re-reading it . I know how sad many on here are re recent SP movements but I really wished to give some upside thoughts which came across a bit skewed. Hold on better times are coming.
Very kindest regards
Bob
Hi Razor,
Commiserations on your 10% but view it in the context of 6% plus inflation at this time.
I am not sure my meandering thoughts should be adressed in reply to you but always follow your posts so here we go.
Firstly I have the luxury of being in Centamin from its outset on AIM and a plan on the wall and accumulated divis as a percentage of initial investment satisfactory.
I get either depressed or amused by some posters on here and long may the latter continue to keep me in a jocular mood.
Comex!!!! How many decriers, vilifiers on here know or have educated themselves as to the governance bodies of this entity . From their comments , not many. I laughed my duck off at predictions of 1900 as I had just taken an option at 1878 as there was no way the Fed ( who manipulate the Chicago mercantile Exchange (see governing body as above )were going to see this happen. As it turns out I set my out at 1819 so missed a few points but happy.
In 2007 I sat and thought the markets were going to hell in a basket so liquidated all my holdings into gold. The present situation as I see it (and 51% correct= happiness and 49%= misery)
America has a defunct President presiding over massive inflation (although at the risk of encouraging Tibbs Boris is not now far behind in my view but be careful Tibbs as to what you wish for)which the Fed is throttled as to interest rate rises to counter and the inflation genie is already out of the bottle in any event.
Rising territorial aggression from China and Putins Russia London cabbies talking about how good their few bitcoin holdings are going. and predicting $100,000.
Hogan's announcements on the 1st and the 8th are only of interest to me if its steady as she goes. External events will trigger all that we wish for if patient enough .
Regards to all here
Bob
The company has an experienced board, an active advisory board, and a management team with extensive mining development and operations expertise. The company operates transparently and in accordance with international best practices in the areas of sustainability, health and safety, environment, and community relations.
Short Company Bio: Burkina Faso Opportunity:
Altair Resources signed a binding agreement for a 90% ownership and 10% Burkina Faso Government ownership for an open pit, 3 deposit, gold exploration project containing 1,388,120 oz of gold (Historic Estimate) at an average grade of 0.95 g/t (COG @ 0.5 g/t).
The 3 deposits are located in the south west of the country and 35km from Centamin’s Konkera project of 3.1M oz.
The project is located in the safest area of Burkina Faso, a mining friendly jurisdiction.
Altair has commissioned a NI 43-101 Resource Estimate and completion is expected late 2021 or early 2022. This will be followed by a PEA.
387,596 m of drilling & 294,504 core samples completed from 3 deposits.
https://minesandmoney.com/london/company?filter=mining-company&company_slug=altair-resources
----------------------------------->>>
My Thoughts:
"The government of Burkina Faso has begun an audit of the country's mining assets to determine whether some mining contracts need renegotiated and if others are preventing exploitation of resources."
https://www.africaintelligence.com/mining-sector_politics/2021/11/22/ouagadougou-assesses-mining-assets-and-contracts,109706241-art
3 November 2008
11 November 2014
14 November 2018
23 November 2015
30 November 2020
12 December 2019
13 December 2017
13 December 2016
14 December 2007
29 December 2011
31 December 2013
We are just going through a seasonal low. This is when I think the jewellery trade buys it gold stocks, West markets for Christmas, China for its January/Feb New Year. Occasionally as in 2009 and 2010 there was none as the opportunity to buy was attractive in Sept/October.
Every day the only question is 'what are the crooks over the pond going to do to PM prices today?'.
I used to feel anger and frustration, now I laugh - it is so blatant.
Would suggest higher lows, 93,94 95,96 — and highs 105,106
By the law of averages and the knowledge or belief in Martin Horgan the share price will rise into a new range.
Higher lows also attracts more investors.
All this arrived at by sickness caused by missing nearly 10%
Still I’m contented with the exposure to risk.
The rationale makes sense - it was trigger for the drop- I don’t see anything changing so hold as gold should bounce back at some point- selling and will miss out and I don’t need to sell.
CaneToad,
You don't believe the market is manipulated ? Do you think it is normal to dump an entire years mining output of Precious metals in a few minutes ?
Nothing to see here.
The government has extracted more than $1 billion in fines from companies including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Deutsche Bank AGto resolve liability for market manipulation tied to spoofing. Merrill Lynch paid a $36.5 million fine in 2019 to resolve government investigations into precious metals spoofing.
news bloomberglaw com/white-collar-and-criminal-law/ex-merrill-lynch-gold-traders-found-guilty-in-spoofing-trial
I think the down pressure is because of the option expiration in the USA today.
Well that rise was fairly short lived :-( .
Im wondering if this is an early smackdown due to the thanksgiving holiday on Thursday?
Last week, wasnt someone on here predicting $1900 by the end of this week? I hope they are right!
Oh well, lets hope for a couple of good updates from Centamin in December and a rising gold price as well.
@SteveJones999: "Nuts day on PMs - bullionvault has an explanation"
I would not take anything from Bullionvault too seriously ... they're not market neutral. They're a gold dealer...
I also do not believe the market manipulation theory. Nothing that I've read can prove that it happens; several large studies have been done to try and detect it and they never found anything.
I think it's simply a matter of supply and demand.
I still think/hope/pray that gold will rise over the coming months, especially if US inflation ticks uyp again on Powel's watch (the rest of the world is irrelevant?).