Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
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Its clear -
Wait a few more months.
then guess.
Andrew Schectman - Live From The Vault Ep:97
https://youtu.be/UgPxdaFKAhQ
Chart gap is 92.74 to 94.06. The gap is significant. At some point Centamin back fills the chart gap and has a near 100% record for doing so when not induced by an RNS. I therefore do not mind Centamin sliding down for awhile so that we can all add in lots of buy shares and await the gap to be back filled. I have written the gap event in the title. Tony
Yep- we are but passengers... in the mining space, broker recommendations seldom make an SP difference (some get it right, some wrong like us, it can either go up or down), unlike in other stocks, when recommendations generally hold more sway. Unless you're on the inside, or an institutional investor, all we can do is follow our own data points and markers. The prob with mining, is that it's massive risk, but of course, equal potential reward.
Pure Gold had three analysts covering their company in 2022 and their advice was as follows:
1 buy
1 outperform
1 hold
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/PURE-GOLD-MINING-INC-22072037
On Sept. 12, 2022 Pure Gold's CEO reported record production (for August) and reiterated they were on on track to meet yearly guidance.
https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/776-tsx-venture/pgm/127699-puregold-announces-record-gold-production-in-august-reaffirms-q3-2022-guidance.html
Six weeks later the mine is closed...
Oct 24, 2022 4:30 PM
Pure Gold suspending operations of Red Lake mine
Company announced it's suspending operations and placing the mine on care and maintenance immediately
https://www.northernontariobusiness.com/industry-news/mining/pure-gold-suspending-operations-of-red-lake-mine-5998535
Bottom Line: analysts miss the mark constantly, look at what's happened to the major US tech companies esp. Meta & Amazon, whom the majority of analysts failed to change their glowing ratings on until after the carnage has happened
But back to the gold space, I will post two more examples of analysts' shortcomings, specifically in analyzing gold M&A deals
Why are they so often wrong, you ask?
Analysts (financial conglomerates) aren't paid to criticize - they are paid to promote. That's why Centamin now has half a dozen on their payroll
https://www.puregoldmining.ca/
Whatever you both think ,is not that important.
It is the anylysts and brains of institutinal investors that , in reality are worth watching, not small investors on BBs.
Cowichan is more like a bee than a mosquito, it may sting occasionally (well once) but provides lovely honey and I am thankful for the info which you can disregard if you want
European stock exchanges were lower in the premarket on Friday with Airbus releasing its third-quarter report and companies such as Volkswagen, Sanofi, Eni and Natwest due to post their latest quarterly results before the start of trading. Furthermore, investors will monitor economic reports, including inflation figures for France, Spain and Germany, as well as Germany's GDP and Eurozone consumer confidence data.
The DAX and London's FTSE 100 were both down 0.57% and the CAC 40 lost 0.43% at 7:06 am CET.
The euro was 0.16% higher against the dollar at 7:14 am CET, trading at 0.99802. The British pound was flat compared to the American currency, going for 1.15642 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / MS
Friday y’al..
Enjoy your weekend.
Thought you had given up.
But no you are still here, to irritate, like a mosquito.
For those of us owning Yamana and/or Gold Fields shares and are uncertain how to vote on their proposed merger — an interview with Van Eck's Joe Foster. His job: portfolio manager and strategist for gold and precious metals strategy at VanEck, oversees the firm's gold investment team responsible for asset allocation, company research and stock selection.
Oct. 27, 2022
The top gold fund manager with the firm that owns the largest amount of shares in South Africa’s Gold Fields Ltd. and Toronto’s Yamana Gold Inc. is denouncing the proposed merger of the two companies as Gold Fields struggles to win shareholder support for the deal.
Joe Foster, portfolio manager with New-York-based Van Eck said in an interview the deal is “poorly structured,” received a “horrible market reaction” and he cannot comprehend the rationale for the multibillion-dollar transaction from the viewpoint of either the acquirer or the target.
Johannesburg-based Gold Fields in May said it intended to acquire Yamana for a 42-per-cent premium to its stock market value in a share swap worth US$6.7-billion. The company said buying Yamana would help address long-term growth challenges in Gold Fields itself.
But Mr. Foster said there had been no indication Gold Fields was facing a growth problem and, in fact, the opposite seemed to be true.
“It really was unexpected, and the market didn’t, and maybe still doesn’t, understand the strategy behind the deal,” he said.
Mr. Foster was also critical of the large premium Gold Fields has offered, and said transactions in which the acquirer pays no premium have proven to perform far better in the long term.
Gold Fields shares lost more than a fifth of their value the day the deal was announced, and have lost about a third in total since then, amid a broader sell-off in the gold mining sector.
Van Eck owns about 5.9 per cent of Gold Fields’ U.S.-listed shares, and has a 10.6-per-cent stake in Yamana. (and 9.71% of Centamin)
Within Van Eck, most of the Gold Fields shares are owned by the firm’s passive funds, which track stock indexes, rather than the active fund Mr. Foster manages. Van Eck’s passive managers are free to make up their own minds when it comes to shareholder votes, but Mr. Foster is the gold industry expert within the firm, and he gives his opinion to the passive managers before any votes.
The concern from Mr. Foster about the merits of the merger is another blow to Gold Fields as it attempts to convince its shareholders to back the deal. Earlier this week, its chief executive, Chris Griffith, said in a Monday media call that while the company was making headway in its marketing efforts, he hoped a few of Gold Fields’ major investors might step up and endorse the deal publicly.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-gold-fields-yamana-acquisition-shareholders-reaction/
In anticipation of the Doropo PFS coming out soon I read thru last summer's PEA and it appears the whole estimate ($275 million) was based off the now defunct Batie West project in Burkina Faso. Was that appropriate given Batie's differences? Economics ?
You can search for 'Batie ' references in the Doropo PEA or just look for the ** below : https://www.centamin.com/media/2439/doropo-project-pea-report-2021_01_updates_190921.pdf
The Capital Cost and Operating Cost Estimate for Doropo has been based off the Batie West** Optimization Study which was developed by Lycopodium Minerals Pty Ltd with input from Knight Piésold on various infrastructure. Centamin PLC provided project specific portions of Mining and Owners costs.
The engineering cost estimate and design status for Doropo is preliminary as it is based off Batie West**. However, the basis of design is a Lycopodium derived basis which includes completed facility designs and modified construction and as-built drawings of current and past project facilities.
The capital cost estimate was based off Batie West** and was prepared in accordance with Lycopodium's standard estimating procedures and practices. The basis and methodology are summarised in Table 21.3
Cube Consulting was engaged by Centamin PLC to carry out Mine Engineering Services as part of this PEA effort for the Doropo Gold Project. The work involved open pit optimizations, based on supplied preliminary resource models, with operational costs and geotechnical parameters based on the recent Batie West** Optimization study, which geographically, is located approximately 30 km to the East of Doropo.
The comminution circuit design is also based on Batie West** where OMC modelled and selected all comminution equipment for the circuit.
An airstrip with a runway length of 750 m to accommodate aircraft such as Cessna Caravan which is a Class B1 to BII aircraft. This is based off Centamin’s Batie West** study.
Following a detailed power study for Batie West** by ECG engineering, considering a range of power supply options, the current intent is for an Independent Power Provider to build and operate an LNG generator power station
And there's more similarities, re: water supply, etc. in the PEA above
I ignore the price of price of gold by currency- if it goes up in usd so does cey and vice versa in general of course :-).
Gold price is a bit misleading at the moment, weak in USD but if you look at AUD or GBP chart it is pretty good (especially GBP).
Unfortunately when the gold price goes up in USD it is likely to be in concert with a drop in the USD cross-currency values so the GBP price of CEY won’t benefit in the same magnitude.
Still, it is nice to see the share price edging back up :)
Yes, it does make one wonder what the SP would be if gold was at $1850 with positive momentum.
Workers in Oz being told to tighten their belt, no pay rise for another couple of years (whilst inflation increases). A lot of what is happening now, is very poorly thought through, and is not sustainable. The low gold price will be in that category.
best
the Gnome
Equities in Europe traded lower in the premarket on Thursday just as companies such as TotalEnergies SE and Shell PLC were about to reveal their third-quarter financial results, which in turn came out in the midst of the ongoing energy crisis. Investors were also gearing up for the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest decision concerning its monetary policy.
The DAX traded 0.08% lower at 8:01 am CET. The FTSE 100 declined by 0.15% at 8:02 am CET. At the same time, CAC 40 stood flat.
Both the euro and the pound sterling stood flat against the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for $1.00770 and $1.16263, respectively.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JR
The prices of precious metals recorded gains on Wednesday, with gold rising by more than 1% and silver by almost 2%. Palladium, on the other hand, registered losses after Apple Inc. reportedly decided to cut the production of its iPhone 14 Pro due to insufficient demand.
The increase in the prices of other metals came after a series of companies, such as Alphabet Inc., Microsoft Corporation, the Coca-Cola Company, and the General Motors Company (GM), posted growth in the third quarter, leading to investors' optimism.
Gold gained 1.06% at 5:35 am ET, 11:35 am CET to sell for $1,670.64 per ounce. At the same time, silver rose by 1.81% to go for $19.70 per ounce. Platinum advanced by 1.96%, selling for $937.57 per ounce. Meanwhile, palladium declined by 0.43% at 5:36 am ET, 11:36 am CET, going for $1,948.81 per share.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JR
Is the top and drop finally gaining momentum? Here's hoping :-). The indicators started before, but gaining more momentum now- let's hope traction is gained this time, the dollar seems to concur :-)
...is paranoid, goes the lyric.
The GP is stuck in the 1600s yet the SP is back is in the 90s.
Let us hope this really is a corner turned.
Major European stock markets traded mostly higher Wednesday amid the publication of new earnings reports from major European companies and banks.
Earlier in the morning, Deutsche Bank said that its net revenues for Q3 were at €6.9B, the highest result for that quarter since 2016. Meanwhile, Mercedes-Benz Group announced revenues of €37.7 billion, and UniCredit revealed that its net revenue, excluding Russia, was 6.8%, up to €4.2 billion in the third quarter.
The DAX gained 0.27% at 8:01 am CET, while the CAC 40 added 0.40%, and the FTSE 100 declined 0.35%.
The euro was flat at 8:00 am CET, selling for $0.99634. In comparison, the pound lost 0.10% to go for $1.14602 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JG
Happy hump y’al
A rash of positive earnings from EU banks
this morning snatching early attention.
Gold plus •34 %
and premium collars of 75k ounces per quarter until December 2023. Wow, I didn't realize any major still considered forward gold sale contracts, etc. a smart move.
---->>>>
As announcement on 24 January 2022, Endeavour entered into a revenue protection programme for a portion of its production across FY-2022 and FY-2023, to provide greater cash flow visibility during its investment phase. This was structured as an upfront low premium collar with a put price of $1,750 per ounce and a call price of $2,100 per ounce for 75koz of production per quarter, from Q1-2022 until Q4-2023. In Q1-2022, the realised gold price was was within the gold price range of the collar. In addition, the Company entered into a forward sales contract for approximately 520koz of production in FY-2022 and 120koz of production in FY-2023 at an average gold price of $1,831 per ounce and $1,828 per ounce respectively
<<------
although, they will look smart if gold does a nosedive
----->>
The loss on financial instruments was $178.8 million in Q1-2022 — mainly due to an unrealised loss on gold forward sales of $79.2 million and an unrealised loss on gold collars of $43.8 million, both of which are detailed below. In addition, the loss included a foreign exchange loss of $19.5 million, an unrealised loss on the revaluation of the conversion option on convertible notes of $18.0 million, a realised loss on gold forward sales of $7.0 million, a loss on change in fair value of the call rights of $4.4 million, a loss on change in the fair value of the early redemption feature of senior notes of $4.0 million, a loss on change in fair value of warrant liabilities of $3.3 million and a loss on other financial instruments of $0.2 million.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/EDV/endeavour-reports-strong-q1-2022-results/15438317
------------------------------>>>
Come to think of it these so called 'revenue protection programs' were probably imposed on Endeavour Mining by the banks with whom they've got a revolving line of credit. $500 million or something like that -
It's likely Centamin may be forced to enter into such a 'revenue protection scheme' as well, depending of course on how much funding they secure for and when it's needed - I hope prudence prevails and details emerge with the delayed Capital Review.
Such contracts would create a whole new dimension for shareholders to consider
The final decison will be made on drilling ,not airborne.
Drilling of which much has been done ,give definate results not general area surveys from above.
AIRBORNE GEOPHYSICAL SURVEY
An airborne geophysical survey, covering the entire 160km2 Sukari mining concession area, was completed during Q2 2022. The heliborne survey, which marks a first for Sukari and more broadly the mining sector in Egypt, combined VTEM, Magnetic and Radiometric techniques, flown at 100m line spacing across the concession area.
The programme was designed to further the understanding of the geological and structural setting of the Sukari mineralised system itself as well as the numerous gold prospects across the concession area.
The geophysical data is currently being processed with expected delivery of an initial set of VTEM, Magnetic and Radiometric imagery during July when further processing and interpretation of the overall data set will be undertaken before the planning of the next phase of work based on the outcomes of the survey.
Mr Horgan added: "...across the broader concession we identified shallow satellite surface targets, potentially adding growth and operational flexibility to our mine plan, and completed the first airborne geophysical survey in Egypt – a milestone for Centamin and Egypt’s hard rock sector."
https://www.centamin.com/media/2836/cey-rns_-2q22-exploration-update_final.pdf
---------------------------------------->>>>
It will be nice to see these images (and better yet the exploration results)
Thanks Cowichan
There is a big difference between aeromegnetic and electromagnetic surveys.
Magnetic measures magnetic properties.
Eletromagnetic measures conductivity properties.
Not the same.
However in an electromagnetic survey you do measure magnetic properties as well
thanks
the gnome
Gnome,
True, Centamin recently completed its own geomagnetic survey over the Sukari tenement BUT the very 1st geomagnetic airborne survey over the entire Eastern desert of Egypt was actually done in 1983 - 1986 by an American company (it took three years to complete.) The data was recently converted into a computer usable format and reinterpreted using the following software/techniques:
1) Regional–Residual Separation
The spectral analysis technique is used to isolate the regional and residual components
from the RTP map (Radial Average Power Spectrum Technique).
2) First Vertical Derivative (FVD) Method
The FVD map is critical for detecting near-surface magnetic characteristics associated
with geological formations; it resembles the upward continuation map and is used to
enhance local anomalies, while attenuating regional anomalies because it is sensitive to
shallow magnetic sources.
3) Total Horizontal Gradient (THG) Method
The THG method is extremely good at detecting structures such as faults from the
borders of anomalies [23], and it is generally insensitive to data noise and interference
effects between close sources. This method is widely used in mineral exploration; however, it is lease susceptible to data noise because it only considers the two first-order horizontal derivatives of the magnetic field.
4) Tilted Derivative (TDR) Method
The TDR is employed in this search for mineral exploration targets and mapping
shallow basement structures using Oasis Montag (8.4); however, it is not usable in deep
sources, since the observed edges have vanished.
5) Analytical Signal (AS) Technique
One of the most essential features of the AS technique for deriving magnetic parameters from the aeromagnetic data is that it is independent of rock magnetization. The AS
amplitude can be used to map the borders of rock units and delineate underlying structural
features.
6) CET Porphyry Analysis
This technique is used in our research to explore porphyry mineral deposits across the
area using the RTP grid, and it involves several processing stages, including the Circular
Feature Transform plugin, the Central Peak Detection plugin, the Amplitude Contrast
Transform plugin, and the Boundary Tracing plugin
A summary of the study states: We have analyzed the aeromagnetic data to delineate the
alteration zones, geological structures, geological boundaries, and depth to the rock of
conceivable basement mineralization zones that are linked to hydrothermally altered zones.
The study area has been subjected to previous geophysical studies, including paleomagnetic studies on some chromite ores [9] and others using aeromagnetic data to create the
curie point depth map by means of the spectral analysis technique [10], but it is the first
time that the aeromagnetic data has been analysed using the new Centre for Exploration
Targeting (CET) grid analysis technique to map out geological structures and highlight
the best pl