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Dasut, you are quite right last year's profits weren't down as they were mostly from before the wall problem, I was talking about this year's which the board have made very clear will be considerably lower. My concern about this week's first quarter figures is that if many larger investors think like some board members here, and haven't fully taken on board the lower production and more important much higher aisc, and even more important extra $200 an ounce remedial Capex, then this quarter's figures, even if a little better than the board predicted, will still be bad - the first full set taking account fo the above - so will you and the market be disappointed by first quarter figures as predicted by the board or even a bit better than expected , or have the big investors taken account of this with the halved share price and will we get a lift? I am not at all sure, I have noticed with Hoc that when badly predicted figures are just as the board said they would be, or a bit better, the shares still take a tumble when they come out. I remain a holder in expectation of our 2023 recovery and a good if much reduced dividend (would only be 3% of our price was still double)
Reminder of GOLD: W- formation is emerging on daily chart T1 1840, T2 1930.
Sotolo I will be happy if results are inline with or a little above target but also important is that the west wall has been stabilised and that they will access the higher grade ore as the year progresses.
I am hoping that at long last we will also hear good news relating to the additional concessions and the relationship with Egyptian Government and that the court case is effectively nullified with revised terms of agreement.
Any good news relating to West Africa will be the icing on the cake.
I am not sure I fully understand why anyone will be happy with 450 thousand ounces or why it is not until 2023 to get where they need to be, given the equipment that they now have on site with Capital clearing waste to open up other areas of the mine. So I am expecting to hear something a little more positive and am trying hard to remain positive.
Sotolo,
I appreciate that you clearly put a very considerable amount of work into your calculation's and possible outcome's, although I'm never quite sure if your contradictory thoughts and conclusions are meant to inspire great hope or suicide amongst share holders?
Your calculations,predictions and conclusions of sort's are based on what has been and not what may be , the latter is yet to revealed and if outstanding disputes are amicably settled to the satisfaction of all parties, the new concession area's are as desired, the existing concessions terms are brought in line the latest and standardised across the Centamin Egyptian operations, the open pit remedial work is progressing to plan and of course promised production is delivered or bettered then you you will have to start your calculations all over again.
Thank you Dasut,
You know the mining industry and Centamin inside out, your thoughts are greatly appreciated by us all!
Sotolo- of course they will know of the revised figures!
ALL figures are compared to most recent communicated predicted figures.
Any positive news on licenses etc will cause a rise, as will May excess ion on prod numbers
Ooops last para of mine meant to be “ Any positive news on licenses etc will cause a rise, as will any excess on prod numbers”. Meeting prod figures will also be good as shows continuation of meeting numbers since Oct2020 RNSs
Sotolo no worries I have three other shares which you also own each time you comment I think oh this will be interesting depressing but interesting.I know the day you are fully enthused I shall be ecstatic. So I look forward to it with much excitement. Take care plus I am waiting for you to tell us you have started you building work. Good luck lynn.
I did ask him i think on the Hoc BB his view between hoc and cey. And he was wholly positive more on cey than hoc. And I did appreciate his taking the time to reply. It was posted on this BB as well by Sotolo some weeks back. I think the last sentence was cey looks indeed the better bet.
I put a buy order in today which didn't quite get hit. Only for a smallish amount but I can see gold doing quite well for the next few days/weeks. I can't see much else to buy at the moment - looked into POLY but not sure.
Driving home yesterday, I saw a crash in front of me. Not the usual car crash, though. There was a van on the opposite side of the road which had pulled up. It was transporting three Portaloos and one had fallen off and hit a couple of cars in front of me travelling on my side of the road. The guy in the transporter looked like something from the Beverly Hill Billies.
It didn't look as if much damage had been done, but as I eventually passed them, I gave one of the victims my business card and told him I'd be a witness if required. When I had my bad car crash years ago (2005), a really nice guy from Croydon did exactly same thing for me and he was required as a witness. I vowed to do the same if I ever faced a similar situation. So, I kept my promise. I hope I'm not required though: 'Yes, your Honour, that is quite correct, this gentleman's car was attacked by a loo.'
Isn't life strange?
Aoife
PS if anyone comes out with 'that's a s@it story', I won't be impressed...lol
Thanks Dasut, the ounces don’t bother me they never do, it is the much higher aisc plus around $200 extra capex that will hit profits harder, the metric that matters more and management say will take a couple of years to work itself through. Hopefully this is already in the price so good news on ounces, costs, concessions or W Africa will give us a boost. However if even some here aren’t aware management predicted halved profits this year will the cold truth bother some. I am hopeful mid term, this week I just don’t know but remain hopeful
Sotolo, most holders are well aware of your suppositions ,but still hold and buy.
I wonder why?
That is a complete load of baloney to say the ounces don't bother you and yet you are concerned about all AISC?
Of course you could have AISC of zero if the mine shut down and produced zero ounces and you would be happy?
Sotolo
Sotolo I am sorry but ounces mean everything to me and the cost per ounce moved even more important as without a sound base and cost effective mining operation there is no business.
Sorry Dasut I was trying to reply to your post yesterday when you wrote that ounces were down but not profit so our share fall was mostly due to PR mismanagement and we should be far closer to £2, by saying I didn't mind about ounces but the increased costs meant profits would be halved, explaining the share price fall, although it should climb back up with expected return to full profitability over the next two years. However I am also sorry if I didn't phrase that more clearly: many concentrate on miners' ounces as with other companies they concentrate on sales, however I think that costs matter even more as if the costs are more than sales then the more a company sells the more it loses. Same with quantity of ounces mined though of course increased ounces can increase efficiency but not necessarily and fewer ounces lead to higher costs. Part of Cey's problem now is with the wall fall they are mining more expensive ounces as well as costs being spread over less of them for now, but our costs look like they will be much higher this year despite cost cutting measures, hence the price. Taken to extreme I once had shares in a goldmine in which it turned out that costs were higher than the MD said and the company went bust as they turned out to be higher than revenue. In quarter 4 Cey had an aisc of $1613 an ounce plus was spending more on non aisc Capex so making very little per ounce, so even with quite a lot of ounces was doing terribly, this year costs should be about $1400 per ounce inc Capex, which means last month we were making around $300 an ounce compared to $1000 last summer. Therefore it is not ounces but profits per ounce that I really worry about, in Centamin the increase costs are a greater reducer on profits than the reduced ounces hence they matter more, so I am not worried by Centamin reduced ounces but their much increased costs although I know the two are connected, and I will have my beady ey on the cost on weds morn as ever. However thanks for your post they are always informative and helpful even I think if our profits will be down a fair bit more than you and I hope you are right that they overplayed the wall drama and will give us some much better figures on Thurs
Well said Sotolo of course ounces matter but Free Cash Flow is the ultimate measure. The one cannot exist without the other. We need both ounces and an AISC + non sustaining CAPEX at an acceptable level.
Agree Somnamna,
Even the MM and some analysts fail to regard free cash flow as seriously as they should!
Indeed there is a general lack of understanding that t's all about the free cash flow in which Centamin excels above so many of the other miners that less well informed and researched investors get caught up in!
Also agreed Mr Bond!
Gold Price is going to sustain between 1800 and $2000 if not major fluctuations upwards. Average realised Gold price to be achieved around $1817 in 2021.CEY and POG are worth around £4 billion
Tomorrow's the day :-).
I recall on the last web call, there were no prod issues and inline with forecast, and there wasn't much of the Q1 to go at that time- you can see the date of this call from the RNS
Sotolo OK get what you are saying and this is entirely why I say how important the ounces are and as far as Centamin Sukari are concerned this is dictated by grades and more ounces pretty much means more efficient use of the equipment and this means costs reduced.
When making recommendations on equipment fleets the mining engineers will get deeply involved with the equipment manufacturer's representatives and the aim should be to achieve the lowest cost per tonne.
Sukari has to be all about efficient use of all of their assets and the hole that current management are currently in is they struggle to maintain efficiency and therefore consistency because they don't have the flexibility of numerous "faces".
My hope as you mention is that the unstable wall has been over stated but more so that the time and cost to get back to the annual 500,000 ounces plus has also been exaggerated.
There have been some major decisions made by the new management team over a very short period of time one being the introduction of a contractor dedicated to waste removal or opening up additional "faces". Any contractor worth their salt will be looking to impress and if they are working on a tonne moved contract then it is in the contractor's interest to impress.
What I also like is that there is now an additional fleet of equipment on site at a known cost based on performance and allows for growth if required at a later date to utilise and quickly mobilise this fleet for mining the all important ounces, at Sukari or open up a new concession area.
Thanks Dasut, just so
Just added 10% to overall holding - nabbed just under 113p. Those must be short term - after ex div otherwise I will be so overweight Centamin. Mind you, if they keep rising, I may wish I added more. I've been know to change my mind.
Anyway, such courage deserves a Tunnocks Tea Cake at 3. Now, where did I put them?
A
Arfur,
How was the Tea Cake?
Prof
Arfur,
You just tempted me to go and find a Tunnack's caramel wafer, albeit more in hope than expectation. Amazingly I found a stray one at the bottom of the cupboard that Professor Jnr and Professor Minor had missed on their last ransacking.
Yum, yum!
Prof