The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Inflation unexpectedly fell last month despite fears about rising petrol prices ahead of the Bank of England’s next decision on interest rates.
The consumer prices index (CPI) dropped to 6.7pc in August, down from 6.8pc in July, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The Bank’s own forecast previously predicted that CPI inflation would rise to 7.1pc.
The fall came even as motorists contended with rising fuel prices amid a global surge in the price of oil, driven by supply cuts in Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey had suggested earlier this month that inflation could increase given that prices went down in August last year but up this August.
Policymakers will decide whether to raise interest rates from 5.25pc on Thursday.
Major European stock indices showed a upward trend during premarket trading on Tuesday, as investors digested Eurostat's report on inflation in the area and the latest OECD report on GDP. Later in the day, shareholders will also anticipate US Fed Interest rate decision.
The German DAX gained 0.16% at 8:00 am CET and the UK's FTSE 100 rose by 0.09% at the same time. France's CAC 40 was 0.23% higher while the Euro Stoxx 50 increased by 0.24%.
The euro and the pound traded flat compared to the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for 1.06810 and 1.23875 respectively.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / RR
Happy Hump Y’al
I think I will not invest in gold anymore. Stick with tech stocks
Gold is hard to make money. USA will never let the gold price jump over 2000 mark. Us and allies has to much to lose. Paper gold wins
Yes Tony ,beer and skittles if they could get away with it.
Time will tell all, lord help them.
Https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/19/united-states-national-debt-tops-33-trillion-for-first-time.html#:~:text=The%20debt%2C%20which%20equals%20the%20amount%20of%20money,the%20debt%20topping%20%2433%20trillion%2C%20the%20department%20said.
Debt going up fast and a shut down planned for 30 September as highlighted when the downgrading of the USD was made.
Just imagine if all governments could run massive fiscal deficits and how good their GDP data based on debt growth would look. Next year it will be bread and circuses time probably for both USA and UK. I wonder what our currency will look like in September 2024. UK sterling lost the 124 handle today on USD. I suspect 120 cents for a pound by Christmas if we are lucky. Gold in pounds probably at a much higher price.
I hope you are wrong on that Mr T and that we get a decent Q3 and things start to pick up. Obviously there are other factors to consider Price of gold/Price of fuel etc
I think a big part of the problem is with what has gone on in the past, Martin Horgan cannot afford to have anything bad happen or he and Centamin will lose market confidence.
Crept out. Typo ;-)
The cat,crept into the crypt ,crapped then creped out ,comes to mind.
Mr T .
Down 60% from what?
The overbought ,inflated 2,20 plus pence ,rush into CEY ,which was good but probably not that realistic.
Then those same traders rushed back out.
Ce la vie.
Miners are VERY HIGH RISK investments!
They all are and each have their own issues, CEY is no different.
Waiting for a "silver bullet" to cure issues and raise SP is simply unrealistic, the long term institutional investors follow the presentations.
Everyone is welcome to their own opinion and those you refer to aren't why the share price is down 60%, as any long term holder realises, its the bottom line of increased CAPEX and the loss of market confidence that are the overriding reasons,
Possibly short term traders need to consider their options though because this is where we shall stay until next year so those who stay may as well get a comfy seat
Https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/How-will-oil-prices-influence-the-Fed-s-next-moves--44876944/
Not great, but key for short term traders, interpret the above as you wish as normal.
GLA.
SP's on UK exchanges over recent(ish) timeframes. To say the impact of usual influences of inflation etc is completely false. Bear in mind in the below I've not included dividends, which are significant for CEY.
CEY - a) 0% (flat) in 1 year b) -16% in 5years c) -60% since peak in 2020
FRES - a) -21% in 1 year b) -32% in 5years c) -57% since peak in 2020
HOCHS - a) +47% in 1 year b) -46% in 5years c) -71% since peak in 2020
SRB - a) 0% (flat) in 1 year b) -54% in 5years c) -76% since peak in 2020
SO
This share price is really gong to stay where it is until there is a sustained delivery of predicted guidance or better and the drain on profits by the waste clearance contract abates very considerably.
I appreciate that there is all the usual influences of inflation and market gold price manipulation but these are really negligible and would be more t than easily coped with were not for the huge drain of CAPEX just to make the Sukari site safer with more operational flexibility.
Once the management has proven to the market that it can be trusted and by delivering the predicted and sustained production rand it is rid of the parasitical cost of the waste clearance then the share price will respond accordingly.
And 10 days until dividend payment date…
Trading on a forward PE of 6.1 yahoo and other sources. The lowest i have seen in years.
144 institutions own Centamin shares comprising 76% of all Centamin stock.
Trading at 0.93 price to book ratio not far off all time lows.
Projected income to increase substantially in H2 with higher production.
Average gold price sold is probably $10 an ounce less but production ounces say 10,000 plus higher. Equates to -$1.1M on price + $4.7M earned on higher production. AISC anticipated to be similar to H1.
Share price trading 15% lower than H1 despite higher net earnings.
Sorry, in post below spellcheck clanged "concern" to "cony" foe some reason?
Hi Razor's,
Really wouldn't pay any cony to "Blackrock" selling, it was a CFD trade anyway, someone in Centamin once told me that "Blackrock" have an industry reputation of " tinkering " just for the sake of it, by comparison VanEck are regarded as "Good Guys" more interested in the long term prospects of the companies they invest in.
I think it would be all the better if 2Blacrock" closed out completely and Centamin were free of having the parasite on its back!
Personally I would rate Black rock on par with the likes of drug dealers and arms sellers, the world would be a better place without them!
Gold moves inversely to real interest rates. So inflation raises gold unless interest rise faster which is just what has been happening. Bonds (measured by 10 year TIPS) are now yielding over a real 2%, the highest since the 2009 burst and historically very high. Inflation adjusted gold is near the low of 1970, back where it was at the start of the century and half what it was in 2012. Look at the real prices not nominal
Blackrock have reduced their holdings from 5.04 to 4.97 %.
More interesting is today Tuesday September 19tj is one calendar month away from the Q3 earnings report release date of Thursday October 19th.
European stock indexes were in a downward trend during premarket trading on Tuesday, as investors awaited the release of the latest Eurozone inflation data later in the session.
The German DAX lost 0.15% at 8:00 am CET and the UK's FTSE 100 fell by 0.15% at the same time. France's CAC 40 traded flat while the Euro Stoxx 50 decreased by 0.08%.
The euro traded 0.08% below the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for 1.06785. The pound was 0.18% down compared to the US currency, changing hands for 1.23964 simultaneously.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / RR
Contiuation.
It is unlikely the US has the Gold Reserve it says. Take for example of Germany a few years ago. 8 years to deliver.
If foreign governments want their Gold Bullion back , tough . They will be offered promisiury notes. Like their Government Bonds.
Its been loaned or sold years ago.
But of course my humble opinion.
Astro my explanation as someone who lives in the UK.
In September 2011 the peak gold price was £1,178. Today the same bar of gold is valued at £1,561 and inflation has ran 60% in the UK. Therefore the equivalent peak price is £1885 per ounce of gold and that is an expensive peak price to pay.
The bottom of the market was £708 per ounce in December 2015. Today that bottom is £1,018 which is a rock bottom low.
Inflation calculations are biased low and hence we equate it better to say a property price we live in or some other major asset. I would estimate that real data is 10% higher on both the low and the high. This gives £1120 per ounce low and the high is £2073 which is approaching the normal 100% variation between a bull high and bear low. We are currently £440 above the bottom and £512 below a bull market top. Gold in my opinion is slightly below mean value. £1593 gold ounces or $1975 gold per ounce is exactly on the average mean on what we see here in the UK.
It is pointless using 1980 metrics as the gold price exploded way above any sensible metric value and it took 20 years to get to a bear market bottom. It is therefore best to look at where gold was at 2011 and 2015 to follow where we are now. What determines the future is whether we are in a bull market or bear market. Inflation tells us we are behind by around 3-4% or so. The motivation to buy something other than gold is based on what is safe to buy. If we believe the UK sovereign debt is a potential future problem then gold is in a bull market. If we believe the debt is entirely manageable without printing more money than we can buy bonds and be happy with 5% and gold is less attractive and bearish. If we believe the equity market is undervalued on PE multiple then gold is more likely in a bear market and if we fear a lot of companies are making far less profit than it is more likely a gold bull market. All the time we recalibrate where gold is in ounces to an important non-gold asset we own and that reminds us whether we are near a gold bottom or a top in valuation in our currency.
Tony
Excuse tyopos ,but you should get the message.
Sticky keyboard, sorry.
It is the fact that the FED need to keep the $ high for confidence in it, no matter how. for the all important Worlds Trading Currency.Its not there yet cause the Eastern Nations trust Gold.It will take a few more years.
Statistics massaged .Then sell massive amounts of paper deivitetives every time it goes out of their cofidence zone.
Gold is inverselvely strong to dollar .