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Trading on a forward PE of 6.1 yahoo and other sources. The lowest i have seen in years.
144 institutions own Centamin shares comprising 76% of all Centamin stock.
Trading at 0.93 price to book ratio not far off all time lows.
Projected income to increase substantially in H2 with higher production.
Average gold price sold is probably $10 an ounce less but production ounces say 10,000 plus higher. Equates to -$1.1M on price + $4.7M earned on higher production. AISC anticipated to be similar to H1.
Share price trading 15% lower than H1 despite higher net earnings.
This share price is really gong to stay where it is until there is a sustained delivery of predicted guidance or better and the drain on profits by the waste clearance contract abates very considerably.
I appreciate that there is all the usual influences of inflation and market gold price manipulation but these are really negligible and would be more t than easily coped with were not for the huge drain of CAPEX just to make the Sukari site safer with more operational flexibility.
Once the management has proven to the market that it can be trusted and by delivering the predicted and sustained production rand it is rid of the parasitical cost of the waste clearance then the share price will respond accordingly.
SP's on UK exchanges over recent(ish) timeframes. To say the impact of usual influences of inflation etc is completely false. Bear in mind in the below I've not included dividends, which are significant for CEY.
CEY - a) 0% (flat) in 1 year b) -16% in 5years c) -60% since peak in 2020
FRES - a) -21% in 1 year b) -32% in 5years c) -57% since peak in 2020
HOCHS - a) +47% in 1 year b) -46% in 5years c) -71% since peak in 2020
SRB - a) 0% (flat) in 1 year b) -54% in 5years c) -76% since peak in 2020
SO
Https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/How-will-oil-prices-influence-the-Fed-s-next-moves--44876944/
Not great, but key for short term traders, interpret the above as you wish as normal.
GLA.
Everyone is welcome to their own opinion and those you refer to aren't why the share price is down 60%, as any long term holder realises, its the bottom line of increased CAPEX and the loss of market confidence that are the overriding reasons,
Possibly short term traders need to consider their options though because this is where we shall stay until next year so those who stay may as well get a comfy seat
Miners are VERY HIGH RISK investments!
They all are and each have their own issues, CEY is no different.
Waiting for a "silver bullet" to cure issues and raise SP is simply unrealistic, the long term institutional investors follow the presentations.
Mr T .
Down 60% from what?
The overbought ,inflated 2,20 plus pence ,rush into CEY ,which was good but probably not that realistic.
Then those same traders rushed back out.
Ce la vie.
The cat,crept into the crypt ,crapped then creped out ,comes to mind.
I hope you are wrong on that Mr T and that we get a decent Q3 and things start to pick up. Obviously there are other factors to consider Price of gold/Price of fuel etc
I think a big part of the problem is with what has gone on in the past, Martin Horgan cannot afford to have anything bad happen or he and Centamin will lose market confidence.
Hi Paul,
I also hope we get a vary decent Q3 and if so then possibly a rise of 10p or so would hopefully be possible and a welcome change, but that's just table scraps, what's needed is a steady rise by 50p or more as the waste clearance costs normalise and Sukari is proven to be operating with with more flexibility to deliver sustainable decent guidance .
Mr Bond, why mot admit it you just like disagreeing for the sake of it , over bought indeed, come on you know as well as any long term holder this was over £2 and would have easily remained so were it not for the crack in the pit wall forcing the admission that the mine had been poorly managed and high grading without adequate waste clearance for far too long .
This resulted in a loss of market confidences and a huge increase on capital expenditure for am estimated 4 years, true some traders did exit because of this but then what's new ,traders always enter and exit what ever the company or share price.
I'm sure though that members would appreciate hearing your reasoning as top why the the massive reduction in waste clearance costs with increased operational flexibility and accessibility to higher grades along with reduced diesel and haulage costs wont result in a rise in profits and indeed the share price.
Thank you
I speak the facts as they were at that time, every mine goes through crisis from time to time with the same result.
Other miners along with CEY are in the same boat .
SP is no real indicator of anything other than the buyers and sellers,apart from the institutional holders and they have stayed put.
We now know what happened regarding the waste clearance and "high grading" in the past.
It seems that every time Centamin got tipped by a newspaper that it would briefly jump and then something would happen.
When the share price went up to over 220p it was because people were being told that production figures were still going up. Didn't the ex police chief who had a job there mention 680,000 ozs?
As I have often said, Sotolo was expecting the SP to go up to £3 from the 220p --------WHY? It was probably because Sotolo was believing the hype?
Maybe if Sotolo is reading they will comment on this?
You have to ask whether people would have being buying shares at the time if the wall was known about and that the claims of increased production figures we a crock of S--t?
Were a crock of s--t
There is no way this SP would be >£2 if it was not for the wall issue.
It would have suffered like the rest from inflation etc.
In one week the pound has dropped 2.91% against USD. The company earns USD and is priced in sterling pounds. So 88p last week is now with 85.5p. Centamin is getting no benefit in being priced in a devaluating currency. Furthermore the pound is expected to decline further against USD. It can not go on like this it makes no sense. If the pound was equal to USD on parity would it go up 20% or continue to stay where it was and then reduced further in price for good measure.
So in your opinion had it not been for inflation then the crack in the open pit wall and the huge CAPEX for the complete open pit recuperating and waste clearance would have had no or negligible effect on the share price ?
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, we shall just have to wait see next year.
So the present share price is due to inflation , true inflation has some effect but over 50% come on and neither does a few pence here and there in the value of the pound against the the dollar, there will be fluorinations some more severe at times than others , but never over a 50% drop.
If that were true then all the institutions would have bailed out long ago and the mine would be on its way to being mothballed, but anyone wants to believe that than surely they ought to be reconsidering their position.
Lets wait and see what happens next year
Mr Tibbs
I am not the one saying the share price was due to inflation and I presume your comment was to Steve. The argument by Steve does not make sense to me as the inflation difference now from H1 is quite small. The average share price in H1 was 106p. The company is trading 17% less on the SP when income earned overall has been greater in Q3 by around $1.5M dollars by my estimates. The retreat is because certain entities have sold off gold miner ETFs and put it into 5% interest earning bonds instead. Buyers of Centamin currently have a potential 17% upside plus a future dividend.
Hi Tornado,
Thank you, yes correct , it was in answer at Steve, I take your point about inflation although that is likely always going to around it isn't the reason the share price dropped off from the highs prior to the pit wall crack , you obviously see the true potential of next year once the waste contract costs return more normal levels and the benefits of the redesigned Sukari operation becomes apparent !
p.s,I just noticed in my last post the good old spell check had corrected inflation to something completely different!
Tibbs
Tony,
my argument makes complete sense if you read my posts correctly. Do you not understand that inflation reducing is still prices increasing, albeit at a lesser rate? (I've mentioned deflation before but not recently).
I am saying that the drop from 220 at the highs around 3years ago is NOT just to do with the wall (which Mr T constantly bangs on about) and would be sub £2 now even without that due to inflation etc.
Mr T,
Stop putting words in my mouth and READ my posts correctly as they are written.
Post 1 EXACTLY as I wrote it and NOT how you are deciding to twist it:
"There is no way this SP would be >£2 if it was not for the wall issue.
It would have suffered like the rest from inflation etc."
Post 2 EXACTLY as I wrote it and NOT how you are deciding to twist it:
"Miners are VERY HIGH RISK investments!
They all are and each have their own issues, CEY is no different.
Waiting for a "silver bullet" to cure issues and raise SP is simply unrealistic, the long term institutional investors follow the presentations."
And to add Tony, no SP EVER works by simple statements like ... in the past when the SP was "nnn", gold was "nnnn", inflation was "nn" and so on- you should have figures this out by now.
Centamin, along with ALL other STOCKS and investments have to compete against one another for investment to mention one simple thing- it's like a department in a business saying "we can turn £1m into "£2m" in 6months, and wondering why they are ignored. They will be ignored when other potential changes in that same busniess yield far more with less risk.