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Plus ML like a dog with a bone so he will just add his tuppence worth at any opportunity …
Storm in a tea cup, the contracts the end user signed are clear and its just sensational headlines.
I agree to that but the FCA are so useless and slow in their investigations that the uncertainty will just drag on…
Storm in a tea cup, the contracts the end user signed are clear and its just sensational headlines.
RBC are complete rubbish, just speculation with their numbers.
The business is in a broadly good state, £9b held in trust, and making profit consistently.
Great buy and hold investment.
And so much uncertainty…..it’s a proper mess here
I’m expecting the dividend to be pulled in its entirety don’t think any other option in reflection to the decimated share price
Karv1
Given the situation with the FCA investigation is still unclear, and there won't be any further update until September (I think), I would be surprised if CBG cut their dividend for FY24 without having any idea of potential implications. That being said, if the worst possible ruling is made by the FCA, I wouldn't rule a dividend cut out for FY25, as they will wish to preserve their CET1 capital ratio.
However, I think the long term view has to be taken here.
No actual reason for tomorrow, I came in at a very lucky price today, very near todays lows. I am hoping for a good bounce back tomorrow.
402.20 265,217 Buy* 397.40 402.20 1m that is sold in the morning and share drop instantly to 402p , now they show it buy but that show someone constant selling daily as much as they can. There will be TR1 soon and share will stop down trend .
Why tomorrow?
How safe do people feel the dividend is with everything going on?
My first investment here at what seems to be a good price depending on tomorrow.
Fair comments.
On the depositor point. I have been giving this a great deal of thought actually, as we watched first hand how quickly a bank can unfold due to panic last year with the collapse of First Republic for example.
However, they are chalk and cheese in my opinion. First republic was a pure play retail bank, with a large proportion of its depositors in excess of the amount the government would refund in a case of default. In addition to this, are large amount of their deposits was made up of easy access accounts. In Close Brothers case, only a small amount of their deposits are available on demand. The majority is locked in time deposit accounts, so in the event of panic induced by the media, I honestly don't see how depositor flight could cause the bank to collapse, as the vast majority could not pull their money.
Massive institutional buying zone.
Re added from my previous escapade buy holding and building this time.
Would be one L . of a divi at these prices wouldn't it - just dreaming
Nice clean up buys coming through.
Price consolidated:
13-Feb-24 15:50:00 399.115 50,000 Unknown* 392.00 392.60 199.56k O
@Reddukeclothing, can you show what you are seeing please?
maybe im missing something, however it looks like a shakedown and hoover up job to me.
Horris thought you said that yesterday and back to £5?
Also what institutions are buying ? I can see one that’s selling a million a day…
Get a grip , you could hurt people
Buy fill orders are being filled at the moment.
chill out, this will re-rate to 450 fast once the orders are filled today.
In the morning huge drop price show only big sell order that will pop up when close today , Daily they sold about 1 million shares so who is selling at now? Until they finish all of crazy sell share will drop more .
Or a takeover ???
Seem ok for day trading so far, up and down like a w.hores kn-ickers
Taking all things into account this share is very under valued at the moment.
expect some big institutional buys today to start filling buy orders.
Thanks for the analysis. Devils advocate:
1) risk weighted assets is going to change, given the higher impairment environment
2) yes there is headroom, I don’t think there is a going concern risk here given your analysis . However there is a reason why banks always have far more than the minimum in reserves , look at the peer group. As such they would likely want to raise to get their headroom back or risk being below peers or even a credit risk rating change - which will again have big impacts on reserves.
Ultimately I agree, going concern isn’t a risk unles the press go wide and spook people to moving their money.
This has to settle where it would be if paying no dividend for the next 5 years for me …
Agreed, hedge funds are just playing tunes on this at the moment, getting cheap shares.
Group CET1 equity at FY 23 was £1.31B, which equated to 13.3% capital ratio. This puts risk weighted assets at approx. £9.850B.
Working on the assumption that the company earns £0 in FY24 & FY25 (which I would think is extremely unlikely), risk weighted assets remained static, and the reported worst case scenario unfolds (CBG on the hook for £200M) in relation to the motor finance investigation, CBG would still have a CET1 capital ratio of 11.27%, which is still well above the minimum requirement of 9.5%.
I am scratching my head at the decline which has unfolded, but I can't help but think this is extremely oversold at £690M below the FY23 CET1 capital.