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Started: jollyspeculator, 11 Jun 2024 14:00
Last post: jollyspeculator, 14 Jun 2024 13:56
Beza, the company cannot escape country calamity
it's not even a serious exporter
Jolly, it is the Company’s performance you should focus on. Never mind the Bangladesh economy, nor the value of the Taka. The cheaper the Taka, the greater the export opportunities for BXP. If we sold our UK shares because of concerns over the UK economy (e.g. UK’s national debt), then our portfolio’s would be nigh on empty.
Cheers to BXP for its progressive performance in a sector (pharmaceuticals) that is close to recession proof. Anyone looking for a safe but potentially exciting Long Term Hold, needs to look no further than BXP, IMHO. Short term gamblers need to look elsewhere for loosing their money.
Jolly, is your worry the country / currency more than the company?
Less than 50% now
the share price in dhaka continues its slide (c 100 taka now)
if dividend maintained at 35 taka/share, that's c1.8p net at 150 taka/£ (20% WHT?)
I'd want close to 10% div yield for the huge risks here
===> tp 20p---
Started: jollyspeculator, 30 May 2024 15:17
Last post: jollyspeculator, 30 May 2024 15:17
That's an easy metric to follow that shows diminishing confidence in Bangladesh after its dodgy general election
Started: jollyspeculator, 30 May 2024 15:06
Last post: jollyspeculator, 30 May 2024 15:06
I've pretty much sold out @39p
GL to those holding on
Last post: winnings1, 23 May 2024 15:09
Sounds right to me.
The share price here is extremely low, yet the Company is doing very well, I cannot hink of better value in the market.
I filled my boots some time ago, I hold long term.
This is showing a forecast divi of 5.06 BDT for 2025. After converting to GBP and knocking off the extra tax I’m still getting a divi of 6.4%! Have I made a mistake in my calcs here or does that sound about right?
BXP has moved up a bit over the last few days and this be because it appears to have had a slight earnings upgrade. The forecast eps for 2025 has been increased a little to 14.3 BDT, which, when converted to GBP puts it on a per of about 4. Looking great value. Makes we wonder if I just add.
Any views regarding todays Taka collapse against the Dollar today? biggest ever one day fall :-(
Excellent post, thank you. I think they are reiterating what we already know.
Today: Up 4.5% on Dhaka Stock Exchane as I talk.
Last post: darientaylor, 30 Apr 2024 17:59
As good as the results are in local currency. when you translate this into sterling the bag taka has depreciated by over 10% against sterling.. soo that is why the subdued reaction. on an annulised basis the P?E due to this now rises to 6 pre tax. still as EK points out the share price in Dakar is double what it is in London, so maybe a little arbitrage from overseas mayy ensue over the coming days
And tipped by Evil Knievil in his Master Investor piece. Not had much of a result though!
Q3 Results out today (see RNS), look nothing short of excellent.
Very happy to be invested here. Share price is bound to rise very sunstantially over the coming years.
Started: jollyspeculator, 12 Mar 2024 16:18
Last post: jollyspeculator, 3 Apr 2024 14:50
115 Taka/share
is extraordinarily cheap
the DES30 has performed poorly, but BXP's sp in dhaka is still weirdly cheap
And the sp on DSE is drifting down towards it lol
It's a little shy of taka 100/share
jolly, do you have a nav figure for beximco? my ‘back of a *** packet’ is 59p but it’s be interesting to hear the opinions of others.
Tks...pronounced seasonality with 2H weaker than 1H
they've earned Taka 6.7/share in 1H, so that's forecasting c2.5 in each of next quarters
Started: jollyspeculator, 6 Feb 2024 11:06
Last post: jollyspeculator, 16 Feb 2024 14:55
I'd suggest the most important macro trends to monitor incl the Indian/Bangladesh inflation differential and exchange rate
I'm encouraged by the resilience of the sp in Dhaka, and let's hope the worst of the macro headwinds for Bangladesh are over
Inflation needs to come down for real stability
Come on Jolly, don't pretend to be small fry. And look, the share prce is showing signs of rising, but still jolly cheap.
My dividend arrived the other day, very nice!
Why not get ssuper rich and fill your boots to the brim, just a bit of patience and then, yes... Bahamas here I come!
Pocket money!$?!
Jolly - Pocket money to you, pocket money. And that in possibly one of the safest stocks on the market.
Medicines man, medicines, always a growing demand for medicines, especially those produced at lower cost, and
that is where BXP excells!
Started: jollyspeculator, 9 Feb 2024 10:46
Last post: jollyspeculator, 9 Feb 2024 10:46
Going thru
so I'd expect the sp to settle back down c37p
I have to say that I was expecting Beximco’s results to raise the share price more than it did. Despite a decent update the share price is only about 10% off its low after being quite heavily sold down. It’s a really harsh market at the moment.
Hard to say for sure but don't think its that much of a big deal. For reference, the co-founders are still the current Chairman and Vice Chairman (The VP is also an MP and an advisor to the Prime minister) and both hold around 9 million shares each so very much aligned with the shareholders. In comparison to the now former managing director who had 14,657 shares at last time of reporting.
The Managing Director here which I presume is the CEO was whisked off to be the sports minister by Hasina. Autocratic or what? Will she appoint the replacement! A bit of a vacuum at the moment.
Not bad, the company showing good rises in T/O and Profits, paying out 2.5p Dividend arriving shortly, and our GDR shares here at half price form what the BXP shares trade on in the Dhaka stock exchange.Lovely!
Started: Suggins, 19 Jan 2024 07:35
Last post: Beza, 22 Jan 2024 14:20
This is drifting back towards its lows, have I missed an rns or is this a warning that share holders will have to endure another frustrating 12 months.
I think the cost floor may be being removed. Might get a bit of action on the domestic market now.
Started: winnings1, 31 Dec 2023 12:06
Last post: Beza, 4 Jan 2024 09:26
Beximco tipped by Evil Knievil in Master Investor
See my previous message.
Started: jollyspeculator, 28 Nov 2023 15:25
Last post: winnings1, 28 Dec 2023 09:30
Jolly, you are naughty, telling us to sell whilst scheming to buy, naughty!
My error, today is BXP’s AGM.
Results tomorrow for Beximco?
The trend
both here and AIM in general
...and we can always hope a Santa
The tactic is deramp as much as possible before the buy
Started: jollyspeculator, 17 Nov 2023 15:56
Last post: jollyspeculator, 17 Nov 2023 15:56
..
ps not advice ofc
Started: winnings1, 11 May 2023 12:22
Last post: pedro61, 1 Nov 2023 13:20
Results are a lot better than expected with covid vacine revenue taken into consideration,a very solid set of numbers....PE of 4,with growth intact,suggests this is very,very cheap....growth company on an absurdly low PE....
Suggins - there are daily Buys and Sells of the shares on the Dhaka Stock Exchange, so no worries there about the share price held fixed at Taka 146.20 for a period.
Rns out
Yes, makes a mockery of stock market
The domestic share price is sat at a market regulated minimum. It cannot go lower until the authorities change the limit or lift their emergency regulations. This affects the whole stock exchange not just Beximco Pharma. It is currently impossible to asses the true domestic price as there is no real market.
It is worth noting that just because the price is sat at the minimum, it does not necessarily mean that there is distinct downward pressure. Simply, no one wants to buy stock in a marketplace with these sort of regulations.
Last post: winnings1, 7 Jul 2023 08:48
The price of Beximco shares on the Dhaka Stock Exchange has remained unchanged for weeks at Taka 146.20 (=£1.05),
yet there are varying amounts of trades each day. I consider a stable share price as solid faith in the Company. Unlikely to go down, more likely to go up from that level. At £1.05 (translated price today) in Dhaka, our Beximco GDR shares here at 36.5p today, are at just one-third of the level in Bangladesh, yet our Dividends are precisely the same.
Make your own judgement...
(I happily own plenty, long term).
Started: jollyspeculator, 22 Mar 2023 13:50
Last post: Toadhall1, 12 Jun 2023 14:38
part 2
bangladesh has not disclosed this net reserves figure, but local media reports suggested the number fell short in march. more than $8 billion needs to be subtracted from the gross tally -- which continues to trend downward -- to arrive at the imf's accepted count, officials have said.
ahsan h. mansur, executive director at the policy research institute, bangladesh, and a former imf official, said forex reserves are a major reason for apprehension about the second tranche, though not the only one. "since february last year, reserves fell every month and never increased, while there is no sign of making a turnaround," he said, arguing there is no chance of hitting the imf targets.
at the same time, mansur said the current "growth compressing" level of imports is unsustainable. "we have to raise imports as well as enhance reserves," he said.
citing a lack of tangible policy reforms, he warned of the risk of missing multiple imf objectives. a failure to meet one or two conditions might result in the fund issuing a warning but still releasing the second tranche. failure on four or five points might cause more complications, he suggested.
he pointed to ****stan's stalled review. "while ****stan is saying we have done everything, the imf is saying, 'no, conditions are not met,'" he said.
zahid hussain, a former lead economist at the world bank's dhaka office, emphasized that the central bank's next monetary policy statement in july should make clear what is being done to meet the imf's conditions.
"the introduction of [the] interest rate corridor [to guarantee rates in a certain range], calculation of forex reserves as per the imf's [formula], and unification of [the] exchange rate of taka, has to be mentioned" in the new statement, he said.
the government says it is actively working to open up new trade avenues, and many insist the imf support in itself was merely precautionary.
binayak sen, director general of the bangladesh institute of development studies, believes the government is steering the economy successfully. "the worst situation that was predicted due to the ukraine war crisis has not happened."
"i am not [anticipating] anything bad," he said. while he conceded that inflationary pressure would persist, he added, "had our remittances as a whole collapsed, or exports lowered 50%, or crops failed 10% to 20% from flooding, i could have become concerned."
Full article here:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Bangladesh-on-hot-seat-to-meet-IMF-loan-targets
part 1
DHAKA -- Bangladesh faces growing pressure to meet targets in its loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund, with key review dates looming.
Already the South Asian country is believed to have fallen short of the minimum foreign reserve criteria for March, set when the IMF approved a $4.7 billion loan in January. An IMF staff mission that visited from late April to early May checked on Bangladesh's progress but could not be assured that the June target would be met.
"Persistent inflationary pressures, elevated volatility of global financial conditions, and [a] slowdown in major advanced trading partners continue to weigh on growth, foreign currency reserves, and the taka," Rahul Anand, IMF mission chief for Bangladesh, said in a statement.
Another IMF visit is scheduled for October to further assess Bangladesh's compliance with the loan conditions before disbursing a second tranche, to follow the earlier disbursement of $476 million.
Some officials and experts worry Bangladesh could fail to meet a number of objectives by the fall. Others downplay the concerns. Either way, there is little question that dollars remain in short supply, and that Dhaka will be tested over the coming months.
After signs of improvement, starting around the end of last year, export earnings have fallen for two consecutive months -- 2.49% on the year in March and 16.52% in April -- according to the Export Promotion Bureau.
Now, amid scorching weather, much of the country remains without power for long stretches, as electricity generation is squeezed by a lack of dollars needed to import fuel oil, gas and coal.
The central bank strictly controls letters of credit for imports. Such letters for capital machinery were down by 54% in the July to February period, and down 30% for raw materials. Some economists fear this belt-tightening may strangle industrial development and job creation, and limit production at existing factories.
The curb on foreign exchange outflows has also left foreign companies struggling to repatriate earnings. An agent of Meta, the parent company of Facebook, late last month announced that advertising by Bangladeshi companies would be limited due to the difficulty of transferring payments. International airlines and shipping agents have repeatedly lamented difficulties in channeling payments to parent organizations, as banks are unable to provide the required dollars.
None of this bodes well for meeting the IMF targets.
The deal with the fund set a floor for net foreign currency reserves at $22.94 billion in March, $24.46 billion in June, $25.31 billion in September, and $26.41 billion in December. Officially, Bangladesh Bank still reports around $30 billion in gross reserves, but the IMF has insisted on a far stricter calculation formula that shows how much the country has available for immediate use.
And this:
DHAKA -- Bangladesh faces growing pressure to meet targets in its loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund, with key review dates looming.
Already the South Asian country is believed to have fallen short of the minimum foreign reserve criteria for March, set when the IMF approved a $4.7 billion loan in January. An IMF staff mission that visited from late April to early May checked on Bangladesh's progress but could not be assured that the June target would be met.
As I've commented before, I think the material risks are those faced by the country rather than the company itself. Bangladesh remains under pressure from availability of USD in country, high energy costs, weak BDT vs USD, imported inflation etc etc.
This is a good article to summarise the latest woes impacting the country.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Climate-Change/Bangladesh-blackouts-magnify-heat-wave-linked-to-climate-change?utm_source=cbnewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2023-06-12&utm_campaign=Daily+Briefing+12+06+2023
From a fundamentals point of view, PER, divi etc this looks a bargain. This is, it looked a bargain at 60p, 50p, 40p and now, unbelievably, it’s dropped into the 30’s. The divi money money still hasn’t shown itself either. What is going on here?
Started: jollyspeculator, 29 Mar 2023 14:29
Last post: Suggins, 10 May 2023 18:18
Sudden volume spike to 433,000 on the domestic exchange today, no price movement though.
5,000 shares traded in their last session, after their Eid holidays and just before results. Maybe results will trigger some more activity.
..
Started: Suggins, 29 Apr 2023 12:57
Last post: Suggins, 2 May 2023 00:29
Profit down 15% seems to be the headline.
Last post: Suggins, 11 Apr 2023 19:37
No explanation given by the seller.
https://businesspostbd.com/stock/ific-securities-to-exit-from-beximco-pharma-2023-04-05
Started: Realraster, 28 Mar 2023 10:58
Last post: Beza, 4 Apr 2023 11:58
Q3 results around the end of the month?
Yes good news dividend is coming through.
Outlook for usd reserves in country remains a little pressured at moment.
https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/views/opinions/pressure-on-forex-reserve-increases
Good to see the Dividend payment arriving. The FX delay had nothing to do with BXP, it was the Bank where there was a temporary FX -related delay.
The shares are rather cheap just now!
Paid today into my account. All is good.
Started: jollyspeculator, 22 Mar 2023 13:19
Last post: Toadhall1, 22 Mar 2023 14:53
Yes very odd the price hasn’t moved in weeks.
little volume
nothing
smells whiffy
Started: jollyspeculator, 1 Mar 2023 15:28
Last post: Toadhall1, 14 Mar 2023 09:31
I’m afraid I’ve sold out the last few days. The new financial crisis is probably not going to help matters for the country in terms of USD liquidity. As I posted earlier, hopefully at some point the USD IMF loan feeds through and eases liquidity, but my view has become more negative as I think the country is in a difficult situation. I’ll watch now.
Bangladesh has just received a $5bn loan from IMF in order to alleviate the USD shortage in country caused by the Ukraine conflict such as high fuel costs last year. Once this cash works through the system it should allow USD restrictions to ease. Additionally fuel costs are lower so hopefully the country can resume its recovery.
You will get your dividend, just delayed by a few weeks. BXP has the money transferred to the New York bank which handles the pay-out to the shareholders, just be patient.
That the GDR’s are not allowed in an ISA has nothing to do with the respectability or reliability of BXP.
Whatever way you look at it the dividend not being paid is not good; nor is the apparent inability to buy this is an ISA.
Sales will turn increasingly global on lower pricing.
Last post: winnings1, 10 Mar 2023 19:11
Jolly - I don’t know about you, but I am sorely tempted to buy some more at the correct
Jolly - I don’t know about you, but I am sorely tempted to buy some more at the current very attractive low price of 42 pence. What is holding me back is that I am at my self-imposed limit for any single entstock. Frustrating, I am telling you.
Jolly - Fixed ideas? Is that what went wrong at Woodford?
fixed ideas based on no evidence are a very poor approach to investing...
A man of few words, and then mostly abbreviated.
My regards to Woodford when you see him.
lol
Started: 1bazzer, 17 Feb 2023 12:00
Last post: winnings1, 23 Feb 2023 14:51
Maybe enough to know that Bangladesh is moving forwards, whilst the United Kingdom is moving backwards.
Thanks for the responses to my original message. We GDR holders have now waited 5 weeks for the dividend, longer than ever before, I think. I would have expected an update through RNS by now, so I am bothered by the delay, not to mention that BXP was my largest holding, so eager to receive a significant dividend amount that I have other uses for! ??
neither of us are experts on Bangladesh, but ....
Why should Bangladesh struggle with FX convertibility? The Taka is holding up well against the Pound’s recent rise, indeed better than the U.S Dollar. Come on Jolly, we know you are hoping for the share price to fall to fill your boots on the cheap, but you can not argue that BXP is less than an excellent progressive Company in a country that is currently more progressive than strike-ridden UK.
If Bangladesh is struggling to maintain FX convertibility, this is going sub 30p imv