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Not stellar but reasonable progress on most fronts, I’d say… but reading note 16 to the accounts, ‘Contingent Liabilities’ is chilling.
The quantum of the Allianz claim has risen from £28m to £66m, the trail set back to potentially early 2023 and there’s no doubt they haven’t a clue as to the outcome.
I’m a holder.
p.s. sorry for repeats - can't work out how this damn thing works
Well contingent liabilities are £66 million + interest at worst, but this case may not be decided till late 2022 or early 2023 now.
Legal costs are estimated to increase by £1 million because of complexity, but not sure what total cost will be.
That is the thing Allianz may lose the case, they might win, but be awarded a small amount or in the worst case they might be awarded 66 million + interest.
It will hold BWNG back and that is probably why the Alliance family have not been buying in the market at what appear cheap prices.
Probably very wisely given the Allianz claims, they will not consider paying a dividend till the end 0f 2022.
"As announced on 23 March 2020 due to the impact of Covid-19 the Board suspended dividend payments for the foreseeable future. The Directors recognise that dividends are an important part of the Company's returns to shareholders and the Board will consider the resumption of dividend payments at the end of FY22."
It's funny how these company stories play out. I bought this share well before the Allianz business was announced and am at a paper loss now. I've since averaged down a little. Question I'm asking myself is should I sell at a loss given the materiality of the Allianz case or should I hang on? I dislike selling at losses (unless I see no way out) and am generally a patient type, so into the bottom drawer marked 'unfortunate mishaps' it goes!
The uncertainty around the potential liability arising from the Allianz case continues to bear down on the share price. Personally, I don’t think this will go to court: the two sides will use Alternative Dispute Resolution to settle the dispute. BWNG clearly want this, and I guess Allianz are playing hardball now, to maximize leverage in the negotiations. I have no doubt that the company will eventually pay Allianz a substantial sum, but I’d be amazed if it is anything close to the number that is currently being claimed by Allianz. Remember, Allianz have said it does not know how much this new group of customers might be owned but “it could be up to £ 36 million”. So it added this amount to the claim, erring on the maximalist side, I’m sure. This is a negotiation.
Frankly, after the positive statement this morning, I had expected the SP to soar: yet at the time of writing it is under 50. Like Unhooked and others, I am well under water but will look to accumulate around the 45 to 50 level, in the confident belief that the SP will improve steadily over the next 12-18 months.
the court case will remain an overhang on this stock now till 2023. Although this remains on low multiples i can't see any near term catalyst to see this re-rate, and realistically given macro headwinds I think this could have some downside drift.
Chris, Arnold: clearly most people share your cautious pessimism, which is reflected in the weak performance of the SP on Friday, despite goodish results. But I beg to differ because: (1) the worst-case scenario numbers have been / are being baked into the SP – and thus discounted by the market – so that the settlement, when it eventually comes, should actually have a positive impact; and (2) the matter may be settled through the ADR route before end 2022/ early 2023 (BWNG’s notes seem to me to hint at this possibility). So while uncertainty will continue to weigh on the shares, particularly if there is a general market correction in the coming months, the “risk” is on the upside, ie that unexpected good news will cause the shares to rise like a cork, never to return the levels that you hope to buy in at. That's why I will continue to "Hold" and be ready to Buy on further weakness.
Hey Adam thanks for sharing.
It was trading over 300 whilst ppi cases were ongoing.
The business is in a much stronger position now and the total exposure is around the same.
No need to be scared. If you are then sell. Simple.
US markets futures are -ve and a lot stocks on my watch list looking -ve at the moment .
https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/
Chris. The Court decided in June that the trial originally scheduled for March 2022 would be cancelled. A trial will not take place until very late 2022 or possible early 2023. (Source: N Brown’s latest HY Results, page 39).
What makes you think that there will be a Court case in March?
In the report they also state :-
"JDW have approached Allianz and proposed an ADR process."
where ADR I believe stands for Alternative Dispute Resolution, so there has to be a reasonable chance that this may never go to court and the come to an agreement outside court.
Ignore CHRI55 he talks rubbish.
Another negative angle here is that if you expect higher interest rates, then you will also be charging higher rates to customers to borrow (N-Brown) which will likely also reduce the demand for your products.
So you have margin compression from higher input costs plus lower consumer demand.
This might be offset by increased earning from credit facilities of customers.
Bought back some shares I sold at a price above 52p at a far more reasonable 47.09p.
There are clearly risks with BWNG, but it does appear to be making headway....
I'm leveraged short Nasdaq on expectation of rates rising quicker than expected impacting high multiple stocks, long energy and have been short ASOS.
I think there is money to be made here but not yet.
Not sure why you think I'm making losses, read my posts, I was calling these on some of the other boards weeks ago.
Sorry if im overly gloomy to everyone else, i appreciate its frustrating when someone is negative when you hold.
Arnold,
I have re-read your recent posts and entirely respect your point of view. If you are leveraged short on Nasdaq, it’s understandable that you are disposed to be gloomy. You have been right on BOO and ASOS, but perhaps the known macro headwinds are now priced into these and similar shares, like BWNG. Anyway, I am going to accumulate BWNG at 40-45, in the belief that the time to buy is when others are fearful. I may be proved wrong, but after the reasonably encouraging market update I am not expecting any seriously nasty surprises between now and year end.
What we are currently seeing is rotation out of sectors least able to pass on higher input costs. Demand for retail goods is highly elastic.
I think a massive correction is on the cards for equities globally. I work in natgas trading and the market is structurally tight until 2023 possibly further out, so I see energy prices remaining significantly elevated, leading to longer term inflation problems.
Sorry for being doom and gloom. Ill stop posting. GL
This cat don't bounce it just goes splat!