Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
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Arry - you could read rossannan's tea leaf carp or, I hesitate to suggest this, wade through latest posts on ADVFN Whoppy thread where someone has upset a poster who was, hitherto long on the spud.
I hope Irene is man enough to apologise to me after the insults (again).
Here is an extract of what I wrote yesterday morning at 04:31am and the evidence. Specifically note 1.c!!!!!!!!!!!....1.c refers to the expenses such as payroll, office, to run the business. I deducted $3m from the $15m. Refer to the evidence. …………………………
‘Please refer to yesterday’s very informative presentation by Eytan here: https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/10/20121621/BPC-UK-Investor-Magazine-VC-Presentation-20-October-2020.pdf
Refer to slide 21 and footnote 3 which states……………2021 goal >$15m NET of applicable royalties / fiscal takes.
Cross reference this with the August presentation slides 27 and 29 which show the same $15m goal with a price model of PoO at only $40/b https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/08/19180949/BPC-Management-Presentation-August-2020.pdf
1. Now let’s make the following assumptions:
(a) CERP is still a stand-alone public company but has 4 billion shares
(b) It made $15m NET profit per year based on $40/b PoO
(c) It’s expenses are $3m (consistent with 2018 accounts https://columbus-erp.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Columbus-Energy-Resources-plc-Annual-Report-and-Accounts-2018.pdf )
(d) No debt
(e) To keep it simple: no capital expenditure
Net profit = $12m /£9.3m (exchange rate £1 = £1.30)’………….
[Now look at the whole post which states the SP modelling with EVIDENCE]
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
GarryGraham - there’s definitely an office on IoM, I along with a number of others have attended AGMs there !!
We are awaiting on Irene to withdraw the allegations….’ lol, you made a crackpot prediction of profits in 2021’ …and…. ‘You really are a crackpot. I feel sorry for all the newbies who seem to be taken in by you.’
In the meantime, it is important to confirm a key point: the $15m is NOT revenue (or as Brits say, ‘turnover’), it is NET profit prior to costs running the business such as payroll or any capital expenditure. Here’s another way to prove this point.
Refer to slide 21 top left https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/10/20121621/BPC-UK-Investor-Magazine-VC-Presentation-20-October-2020.pdf . It states an…’end 2021 [Production] GOAL 2,500 bopd (net)’
1. 2500 x 360 days = 900,000 boe per year starting at the end of 2021.
2. 900,000 x $40 (PoO WTI) = $36,000,000 annual revenue.
3. Cost of extraction is approx. $20/b and the company has stated it will try to improve this.
4. This leaves a net of $18,000,000 minus gov royalties leaving the original $15,000,000 which I referred to in my earlier post this morning and undertook a deep dive yesterday morning.
I am aware and totally accept there are many on this BB who plan to cash out pre-spud. This is there prerogative even though I will not. Their only concern and most of the chatter on this BB appears to be if the SP twitches up and down and don't care what happens in late 2021.
However if seasoned persons who know about shares and financials haven’t figured out the ex-CERP potential by end of 2021 as envisioned by the BoD, is potentially MORE than today’s SP (based on market cap) if Percy-1 is a duster….what hope do ordinary PIs?
Irene to allege I am stupid and/or wilfully attempting to mislead newbies is out of order. I await her apology.
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Starchild
“However if seasoned persons who know about shares and financials haven’t figured out the ex-CERP potential by end of 2021 as envisioned by the BoD, is potentially MORE than today’s SP...”
You maybe want to take a closer look at the ex-CERP assets and their histories. Everything has potential in theory, particularly if the oil price re-rates significantly, but I suspect that many of those with CERP experience will put the CoS of what you describe as pretty low (and have already concluded that the BPC BoD swallowed Leo Koot’s rosy scenarios pretty much whole, without asking him any really difficult questions).
Yes rossannan the COS are so low the firm drilling Saffron 1 offered to drill Saffron 2, at their cost, in exchange for a share of production - these are the guys who were there and have seen everything- unlike bulletin board trolls ! Sometimes you can come up with a challenging argument but I think this Koot obsession is affecting your judgement rossannan!
Rossannan: I hear what you say although do not necessarily agree with you. However have no axe to grind with you.
A BoD in a public company would never state wild financial predictions without merit or feasibility. Its Nomad(s) would not let them. Furthermore, a whole different management team now holds the reins with only Leo remaining from CERP.
The points I have made in the last 2 days, in good faith, are based on BPC presentations which i analysed and cross referenced with other research. Not figures I have cooked up or hyped to mislead people, as alleged by our resident share-shorting princess. What reason would I have to do this? to try and talk-up the SP to 3p instead of 2.4p? I don't care if it's 2,3, or 4p as I'm in for the big Percy-1 spud.
good luck,
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Starchild
Yes, these figures are indeed in BPC presentations. It comes down to the questions that shareholders, particularly on AIM, always have to ask themselves when their BoD presents them with figures like these - do I treat these figures as predictions or as mere aspirations, and am I clear what capital expenditure would be required to make them happen? Experience has made many of us quite wary...
rossannan
5p share by 2021 is crap i expect much higher, plus ceprs mc supposed to be £500m from what we cerper's were promised by LK
Regards Limopete
Limopete
Are you being ironic about Leo Koot’s £500M MCAP prediction or do you believe that the ex-CERP assets can still attain this level of value within Leo Koot’s timescale? To me it was just a bit of catnip thrown to retail investors by a salesman. Never a prediction and hardly even an aspiration in any realistic sense.
Rossannan: Again I can see your point of view and fully respect it. 2nd time in a day which has been rare because of our little skirmishes on and off over the last few weeks.
I fully agree with you it is always good to be wary. However the great thing about ex-CERP assets is BPC will have the capital to make things happen. CERP did not. Even if the management projections are out by 50% for end 2021 and we only generate £6m free cash instead of £12.3m. IMHO the SP, even with a total Percy-1 duster could be more than the 2.5p based on my SP modeling algorithm.
As a BPCer it is only in the last 3 weeks or so I understood the ex-CERP asset potential in full as it was very confusing what the assets were and how much money they could generate. It is also good that these assets are over a spread portfolio any of which can strike big.
I hope in the next few weeks professional analysts home in on this to add credence to my researched opinion that the SP at current levels is FULLY hedged if Percy-1 is a duster. The markets haven't quite worked this out. A bit like owning shares in a retail biz, forgetting it actually owns £100m in property.
Best,
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Starchild
“the SP at current levels is FULLY hedged if Percy-1 is a duster”
I really would look very carefully at the ex-CERP assets, how capital hungry they are and how much capital they have consumed to date, before trying to take that statement to the bank.