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EA approved - MM will hold in place to allow all inside line to load this week
Next week drag anchor removed and "normal" service resumed
Its a left field compliment to this being a worthy investment, such is AIM.
Onwards to drill
Still a long way till drilling, plenty of time for this to be walked up and down. Never forget this is a wildcat drill, worth nothing till they find good quality oil and lots of it. Always the possibility of thin reservoirs and water, complications and extra drilling costs. Not deramping just offering a balanced view from someone who has been in this exact situation 4 times before.
Thanks Londonwhale. Good to have a bit of balance. I will take the whale part as significantly a good omen... cheers..
It’s very easy to get carried away with “this is a life changer” especially on oil stocks and especially on the AIM, it’s always worth taking a step back and considering “if I made 100% on my investment I’m winning big time” usually people get way to greedy with these kind of stocks and expect 10 baggers - which obviously do happen but are rare. That said, I’d not be surprised to see 6-8p on lead up to spud, maybe a more during the drill, then who know where if they hit? I’ll tell you what though - it’s 1.5p if this well is a dud. Definitely a speculative buy though ????
Thanks for your advice Lw - I am over 100% though was a lot higher less than 48 hours ago. With the recent news that they wil be drilling I see this as at least 7p which is where we were back in 2018. I would be happy with that if we were only in the position we were in 2018 - that we were in exclusive talks with a major to bankroll for a drill.
You will be aware though that at current point in time BPC has enough funds to pay for the use of the drill ship, anchor it down and let the drill bit do the talking. That said if it did hit a duster there is enough money in the pot to plan a second aperture and see what that one brings.
All of course speculation as there is no confirmation of the drill - or is there? In order to obtain the EIA there needed to be details relating to the vessel being used and methodology in obtaining the necessary exploratory permission to drop said drill bit.
I am sure you meant well with your initial post of course and I doubt it was a deliberate attempt to be some sort of scaremongering type post. We have enough scaremongering around the Covid malarkey as it is.
Stay safe all - B@)
Hi London.
Good post with valid advice.
I would point out that IMO there has never been a more de risked prospect than BPC’s.
15 years of constant “grooming” of the data after the initial prospector honed in on the area. Alan Burns is recognized by most industry experts as the no.1 diviner of mineral resources.. $100 million + spent on derisking. COS of 25-35% when I believe the average of most new regions is 11%.
All of this has to be incorporated in an investment decision here.
The odds do not get any better.IMHO.
GL
IK
XX
Hi Brynjon, yep not trying to scaremonger just trying to keep things in perspective, markets are in flight mode currently so no need for me to add to it. If they are spudding in April then they must have secured a rig to drill, they’d not be leaving it this late would they considering where it might have to come from? Potentially Scotland in the middle of the northern hemisphere winter though I don’t know this.
Also for the EIA They need only nominate a supplier not the exact details of which rig they need but may be wrong on this.
or maybe a major already has one in the area ???
Scotland?? Wtf are you on about....? Rigs are closer to the Caribbean than the Clyde..
How do you know where the rig is coming from? Are you up to date on current Rig liquidity? Of course ideally one would be sourced more locally but I know the rig that drilled the falklands wildcats came from Scotland.
Are you up to date on current Rig liquidity? Yes some are on here. Lot of experience peeps on this board. You'll find out in time.
Londonwhale: It was the Ocean Guardian took 6 weeks to get there from bonnie Scotland
Reposted for Londonwhale's benefit (Rig data from seadrill current contracts last night).
I used to play a game where i filled in 5x5 grids with ticks and ruled out not possibles from the clues supplied. I have now come to the conclusion based on this experience thaat the ONLY Seadrill rig is the West Saturn. In the podcast SP said it was a 'dual drill' (one tick there), so it must be a drillship. He said it was the latest generation and was built in 2014, (few more ticks there). Cross out the currently employed drillships (lots of crosses there), and finally, what is left.... only one tick..... the West Saturn :D
Monk
The EA is surely tied to a specific rig so Seadrill and BPC must be agreed . Strange nothing is announced yet, unless other news is coming.
Sounds good to me! Though in reality us punters are always wrong. :-)
The only other option is one of the other drillships currently in contract with a MAJOR in the GoM!
Monk :D
I suspect the EA has been signed off with a specific rig allocated to BPC on a go alone basis e.g. Saturn OR provision for a MAJOR’s own ship which the BG would obviously be happy with without question.
all in all im comfortable had a couple of " tanner half crown " days which most of you will not understand but i stood tall and had faith in the bigger picture. i now have double my holding and a lower average which is a minor blooming miracle! 36p on a find that'll do for a three quarter top slice the rest will wait for the finish line. gla
Pffft...
...I really cant be posting the rig information again!
JM, I knew it as Half a Crown- threepany bit. At close my sphincter has settled at one and sixpence.