Just a matter of waiting it out. Talk of U-shaped recovery rather than v-shaped. Who cares what shape it will be but recovery is on cards and with the oilers that have plugged production that translates to shortages going forwards. It's easy to shut down production but hard to restart it.
For BPC it's just a question of surviving cv19 crisis which let's face it the company has already positioned itself to do so.
Hence, it's a waiting game........
Haven't been focused on equities recently more FX as cash is king. Anyway, I have some control knowing that the greenbuck is King. I'm just waiting equities out. I did get some pfd which soared recently so some stocks are doing well if you concentrate on those corporates that are key.
Makes perfect sense to bail out struggling oil firms.
Eventually, CV19 will end either through a vaccine or herd immunity. Herd immunity is a nightmare as it would involve increasing death rates especially as figures show that only betwen 2 to 3 per cent of populations have built immunity. That leaves further infection waves on reducing the lockdown as highly significant. So, we really need a vaccine.
Supposing oil producing firms hit the wall and go bust. Well, as soon as the world economy goes back to work then we would start to see oil shortages. Demand will be exponential but supply will be severely limited. Wouldn't surprise if wti goes past $100.
So, step in Trump. His plan to bail out oil firms makes a lot of sense in that regards.
In short yes. Brent is based on sea based oil whilst WTI is landlocked oil. So WTI is the way it is due to storage/pipelines are full. Generally, landlock oil is more expensive to transport than offshore or sea based oil which is tankers. BPC would be priced in Brent.
It's kind of immaterial as we probably won't be doing much till October
Well, I'm going to be cynical and state that in my opinion this CV19 came out of a bio-weapons lab. If it didn't it sure is behaving like own.
Dutch is right in saying health first and no one would disagree with that.
What's the alternative for democratic governments that ignore clamping down on CV19? People dropping dead on public transport before your very eyes from the virus. Look at reports in London of Police Constables having attended to peoples homes having witnessed several deaths in one day in one case up to 13. These are private homes where people caught the virus and died. Seeing dead bodies is not something that the human mind is accustomed to and no doubt these Constables are going to need to seek help at some point.
So, democratic governments who don't put health first with an R value over 1% (CV19) is even higher will find average Joe witnessing deaths on the streets. That Joe Blogs isn't going to vote in a government that allows that to happen no matter how popular or plain speaking the politicos are.
Hence, it's not so much about saving the NHS but of being seen to take action for fear of the body count and political implications of not doing anything. Herd immunity policy is plain inaction. Sweden has right shafted itself and now politicos there are going around in brown underwear, literally.
Brazil, Belorus and others ignoring CV19 are going to face political unrest going forwards as the death count soars and every family witnesses a needless death.
Why? Simple because CV19 is a bio-weaponed designed to kill in large numbers. Yes, it will mutate into something even worse or not and even into something harmless. What politico would risk the latter... none!
Think equity markets are socially isolated at the moment... lol or in a state of deep freeze...
Anyway, been in FX now just to get buzzing again as watching this is like watching paint dry.
There is obviously excellent opps out there in equities.
What I'm expecting from BPC is a licence extension. To drill now with POO being on the floor wouldn't be worthwhile not even for BG. I would suggest release licence extension on the market, get it as long as BPC can and BG will permit until Covid-19 isn't impacting so much on the world economy and POO. Announce a farm partner. Stuff like this would keeps interest going in BPC.
BG are clever folks they know what's happening with POO and global economy. BPC wouldn't have to sell the kitchen sink to convince BG that Covid-19 has f888ed the globe presently.
They just have to look at loo rolls and happy clappiness on YouTube....
Cheer up Gents,
Signs are showing that the pendemic is faltering in Europe. Deaths are down. Lockin is working. Light is showing at the end of the tunnel and FTSE is noticing, hence the brise today. Also, had a good day in FX is the lows are starting to turn. Actually was done and dusted before noon today and just sat in the garden till now.
At this rate, wouldn't surprise if BPC are able to do the drill in October...
It would be good to get an update tomorrow with how BPC is dealing with the coronacrisis.
License extension news would be good.
Might add cheer to the many locked in or self isolated.
Very much doubt this could happen due to the Cuban Embargo. More likely a dirty carrier would make out for El Salvador et al and then drop off to Cuba which is the usual pattern.
Problem USA has is the large Cuban ex-pat community which fled Castro waiting in the wings to reclaim seized Cuban assets and there is a lot of bad blood there to keep the Republicans from reducing the embargo.
Seems to me that we are on some kind of macabre death conveyor belt. You turn up at an ICU and you have 50% chance of survival if you get through the ratings treatment in time. You can look forward to die alone and then a quick cremation. I was watching a doctor in a Chicago hospital being interviewed live. One poor soul came into ICU needing CPR and within minutes was pronounced dead. Cause of death was Covid-19. Didn't even have time to get tested. Assume as you please. Effectively this is a bio-hazard war and during war time time is the essence and procedures get bypassed. In my view, Covid-19 didn't emerge from nature but from a Bio-Lab. It's rapid spread worldwide is just astounding. It's just a view and I'm probably totally wrong going on just balance of probabilities.
What the heck... been on fx most of the past week. Bear EUR/USD EUR/GBP Everything else Bull including GBP/USD. Think we agree IK.
Keep Safe everyone .....
Is it just me or does everything seem like it's been put into deep space hibernation.......
Signing off.... for the week, month, 6 months lol I jest.... I think...
COVID-19: What is really at stake?
Bahamas Chamber of Commerce and Employers Confederation (BCCEC) chairman Chester Cooper backed oil exploration in Bahamian waters once regulatory safeguards were in place, saying, "The likely revenues can eliminate the National Debt in five years and contribute significantly to education, healthcare and development of infrastructure across the country and, importantly, an expansion in GDP leading to more favourable economic metrics."
Cooper added that that a conservative estimate was that more $1 billion annually could be generated if BPC discovered extractable oil and that the country’s oil sector had the potential to "transform the economy," both directly and through spin-off commercial activities.
Jeffery Currie, the global head of commodities at Goldman Sachs, said the mothballed oil wells may fail to restart as quickly as the economy recovered from the “coronacrisis”, or at all, which could trigger “a very quick risk reversal towards oil shortages” and cause oil prices to more than double again by next year.
· Key elements of the Company's finance package have been successfully rescheduled; the Company is in a strong cash position and in the coming months will be seeking to redefine operational plans and major contractor arrangements consistent with a revised work programme timetable
· Farm-in process continues; Company has begun considering other opportunistic strategic alternatives arising as a result of the current global crisis
Any RNS now has to be pre-drill negotiation outcomes. We could be looking at farm in as this becomes a great opportunity for major and super-majors to get in on the action especially with shale becoming increasingly non-economic and other adverse events which would make exploring new major fields with mid east side potential very attractive going forwards especially with BPC having done most of the groundwork in this area.