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In previous rounds of buybacks recently they have paused buybacks at times.
I would like to see them dropping volume of buybacks daily by about 25%.
Just to have some extra volume to use if we need to defend the £5.
Think £5 has now to be a measure of our new CEOs success going forward.
As long as he can keep sp above he looks like a success.
( obviously £6 would be even better,but little steps first)
Morning WeirdPal
Just posted and saw your post. Daniel Haynes had said the same in a much more polished way.
Morning all
Oil down this morning, as I suspected it would be, the oil premium has benn sold on facts. The iranian ' retaliation' was designed to look like a hard response while in truth it was a choreographed farce. Iran informed the Americans hours before the attack commenced. The drones took fro. 4 to 6 hours to reach Israel, hardly a lightening, stealth strike and after Iran firework show they immediately released a statement saying they there campaign against Israel is now over - as long as Isreal does not retaliate. Puffing out of Iranian chests over. Iran has much more destructive weaponry but decided against using them.
In summary, Iran does not want a war with Isreal. Isreal does not want a war with Iran. The Americans do not work Isreal to retaliate. Iran wants the US to stop Israel retaliating. Israel wants the US to allow a Rafar operation for restraint on Iran.
Away from this temporary side show, fundementals are all that matters in the medium to long term, as meoryou rightly mentions.
Looks like it was very much baked in which is why it rose 2-3% on Fridya:
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https://www.ft.com/content/3bbeb6b5-b9b6-4474-a858-cc8a23c448ba
Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank, said the calibrated nature of the attacks and the fact that they were well telegraphed had eased oil market concerns.
“We had a build-up in the oil price before the weekend and so a geopolitical price premium was already built in prior to this event,” he said.
Hopefully Israel doesnt react, although If a country launched 300 drones/missiles at the UK I'm not sure we'd show the same restraint... for now the situation seems calmer which is a win for the most important thing - humanity.
Would appear for now that the risk premium on oil due to the Middle Easr has been dropped.
Hopefully wiser heads prevail .
Bid premium looks like it’s also gone currently for BP despite some press over the weekend.
Several commentators seem to think BP may now be in play.
For now we can just focus on the fundamentals ( which are not too bad).
Only important thing
Hold £5 at any cost
Https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/04/14/markets/asian-markets-gold-oil-iran-attack-israel-intl-hnk
Good Morning !! Worrying times, but US Index Futures Up c 0.20%
Ironic that the Big Mideast dustup occurred over the weekend when oil trading is down.
I'd say the powers didn't want the Oil price to spike...
SPR still needs to be filled and there is an election approaching here in the US.
Aquisitions that should be lol
That's quite a leap from current, but consistent with their previous call. Been a lot of talk about accusations "on the cheap". Seen smds getting American interest following the initial takeover approach by Mondi. Any luck the Americans start sniffing about BP also and price reacts accordingly.
So, changing topic to BP.
If Shell does leave FTSE, that would propel even further.
I’m presuming that is what BARC are basing their SPT on Bp at 1000p to be
Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth maintains his Buy rating on the stock. The target price remains unchanged at GBX 1000p
Harmonica, I expect the Oil price to be up tomorrow.
Sky News said the drones were attacking Israel around 1:30 -2:00 am Israel time so around 11:30pm UK time. They were well on their 9 hour way when you posted at 21:39 13th Apr. If Sky News are correct, and their times are not the most accurate I find, then the drones left Iran at c. 14:30 UK time to arrive near Israel c. 23:30 UK time.
Hey Mark, all good thanks, and hope the same for you.
Now that would be nice, I'm going to get in there early and give my Xmas 25 price hope of 777 then!
Hi Cong
I hope all's well with you. It is always a pleasure to see posts from you.
With the caveat that nothing is certain with the energy sector. I would certainly hope that BP share price starts with a 7 by year end 25.
Hey Mark, what you hoping for by end of 2025?
Hopefully Israel won't go full out and have restraint, if the kid dies though that may decide things. Let's hope nothing happens and tbh I'd rather oil just stay at 90 for now
..... a year or so. I hope by the end of 2025
Have a great Sunday all.
Mark
Good morning Redbluerhino, Darren Taylor & Howardzz
Redbluerhino - great comment and posts.
Isreal is a rogue state. Their disproportionate destruction of Gaza and their campaign of genocide in response to October 7th is testament to this.
The west's mealy-mouthed concern for the two million people in Gaza at the same time sending Isreal the bombs and bullets to kill the carry out their campaign is shameful and abhorrent. In this live situation nothing can be ruled out and all possibilities are possible. However, I do not see Isreal wanting a full scale conflict with Iran and Iran certainly does not want a full scale war with Isreal.
With the US election six months away, Biden will be telling Bibi any significant response that could escalate to an all out middle Eastern war and the consequences for the prices at pumps - and therefore his re-election - in the run up to that election is a red line for US support for Isreal. Biden has turned a blind eye to sanctioned Iranian oil 3mbpd being sold to help keep a lid on price and will not allow this to be jeopardised.
I
Isreal have achieved their aim in bombing the Iranian embassy. I agree with your opinion that focus is now off of Gaza and the political pressure is lowered on Bibi as Israeli unity in the face of attack will take precedence. This has already been achieved at no real cost - one child injured - I don't see any strategic advantage in a wider conflict for Isreal. Maybe Rafah campaign permission could possibly be a bargaining chip in this death game.
and so to oil, the market will be calculating all the possibilities and probabilities with 'buy the rumour sell the news' fear of the unknown being replaced with the known, I would not be surprised to see lower oil prices as s result when the oil market opens.
That said, I do see this situation as a short term side show as far as oil is concerned. I agree also with Darien's comment regarding the importance of Opec's 'management ' of supply and the resilience of demand that is set to grow into peak season as more influential in the medium to long term so any fall should soon be recovered going forward.
I would not be surprised to see $100pb+ before the end of 2025 once the election is over and limited global supply comes into focus. Prior to the election, possible releases from the strategic reserves in the US and possibly China will be used to depress price but will be temporary.
I guess I should mention BP !
I note some investors have recently sold. Enjoy your profits anyone who has decided to sell. It is fully understandable, following the repeated peaks and troughs experience from May'23, that concerns of a further repeat could be just around the corner. With previous selling opportunities around the peak 560s followed by 20% drops I can understand why some are selling and taking profits.
Personally I have no intention to sell any BP for the foreseeable until true value is achieved maybe in
Iran hold the upper hand here on oil price direction as they control the sea passage of the Strait of Hormuz.
This is what could and will cause a major oil spike.
I see this going higher than $100 .
Americans are talking about $120-130 already last night on CNBC, and Bloomberg.
Don’t want it to happen, but it could easily burst too.
Furthermore, if there is an Israeli response, it may warrant an Iranian response, at any point in time this may include limiting the freedom of navigation in the strait of Hormuz.
I think oil has already reacted in the way you describe. it shot up to $92, and now back to around $90, the longer term issues are to do with OPEC cutting production,
Understanding*
Mark - agree with the first part of your understand about the Iranian response being more of a symbolic response. However, I’m not sure how much the Israeli’s can be restrained in terms of their response (we’ve seen evidence of their rogue behaviours in Gaza contrary to American requests) - I also think that Israel sought this conflict to take the attention away from what is happening in Gaza and portray a wider conflict of the West vs Iran to relieve some of the pressures they are under from their allies.
Mark - but won't Israel want an excuse to attack Iran? That was the whole point of the Israeli attack on Damascus- to provoke Iran into war.