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Yes, Boohoo could go down to 45p or it could go up to 63p. Nobody knows.
At present it's a battle between the bulls and the bears for who will win out.
Yes Boohoo could have excess capacity at present until the 13 Brands have grown. The 13 Brands will grow into the excess capacity.
For me, you have to look at the future of a business, where it's going and is it likely to get there. With 13 Brands there is huge potential. The fruits of these won't be seen until at least mid-2023.
"The daily chart shows that the BOO share price has been collapsing in the past few months. The shares have moved from an all-time high of 438p to the current 57p. Along the way, the stock has moved below the important support level of 63p, which was the previous YTD low.
Boohoo remains below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while oscillators have moved to the oversold levels. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the stock will keep falling as bears target the next key support level at 45p."
Certainly remaining unloved out there on the market and valued as such, just like those weird zips in the back jeans they tried to flog, rather odd design that was.
I'm talking net earnings, not the prettified figures you prefer.
Frankly I'm not very confident in the management and so yes, it wouldn't surprise if they misjudged and had excess capacity.
Shein is too much an unknown and opaque to be a meaningful comparator.
Value clothes retailers tend to have net profit margins about half of your 7% – by nature they're low margin business. That means your £420m net profit a year isn't gonna happen.
Having £6bn capacity means nothing unless customers will buy that amount of stuff from a single operator. V unlikely to happen in a fragmented market; even moreso with Boo's main customer demographic.
Taken from the below link DC and he has had good calls on Boo all the way down
https://invezz.com/news/2022/06/16/heres-why-asos-and-boohoo-share-prices-crashed/
The daily chart shows that the BOO share price has been collapsing in the past few months. The shares have moved from an all-time high of 438p to the current 57p. Along the way, the stock has moved below the important support level of 63p, which was the previous YTD low.
Boohoo remains below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while oscillators have moved to the oversold levels. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the stock will keep falling as bears target the next key support level at 45p.
I think it'll duck to mid-40s, Bert. Business would have to be in trouble for there to be a big downside from there. Not a possibility I'd rule out, but a lowish probability.
I don't see a huge upside to it anymore — the days of £3+ are history. Much over £1.50 would seem exceptional. Terminal value of Boo's earnings supports a business valuation of about £1.5 - 2bn.
Nobody knows what the share price will do in terms of going down and up over the next year. The point is regardless of what it does, it will take probably to mid-2023 to see some of the fruits of Debenhams and the rest of the new brands.
The share price is worth 36p for its assets.
Camelot Capital Partners, a Hedge Fund, have just bought 4.59% of Boohoo shares at about 60p each. 4.59% of Boohoo shares is about 60m shares. That's about £36m invested in Boohoo shares.
There's always the chance of the Kamani family taking Boohoo private and they'll have to pay a premium on the share price to do this. Never say never to this happening because again nobody knows.
PP1 agree with your post although it's a bit of a catch all. Investors who have £1.50 + averages have every right to share some negative views, its quite normal. There are 2 ways this is going up, either better than expected results or something out of the ordinary which takes us all by surprise. I'm going for the latter by end of year. 18+ months of only downward movement is simply not acceptable to us (genuine investors) and those that are running the show.
Bert, that's complete guess work and inviting the negativity. A more realistic question for the shrewd and knowledgeable is what will the sp be at end of calendar year and as PP1 suggests, mid 2023?
Afraid if we knew the answer to that question then this time next year we'd all be millionaire's Rodney
Seriously, I am in the circa 56p bottom with recovery to around 75p by end August. But lots of bumps and potholes along the route. Just my view.
47p is my guess... GLA
It looks to me like the negative views of Boohoo are coming from those who want to buy Boohoo shares cheaper than the price they're at now, plus those who already hold Boohoo shares at a higher price than they are now and have become extremely anxious and fearful about their Boohoo share holding.
For those holding Boohoo shares, I would say you need to give Boohoo lots of time and to at least mid-2023.