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Just bought shares in BIDS at 2.18 after reading Michael Taylor's summary, copied below.
2. Bidstack (BIDS)
If you’ve been around a few years you’re probably aware of Bidstack.
But if you’re not: I’ll sum it up.
Bidstack is a technology company that puts native advertising into video games.
It’s pretty cool - although the company has promised far too much and delivered too little.
This didn’t stop it from multibagging though - eventually hitting £100 million market cap which was bubble territory.
Back in 2019, the market was hyped about Google Stadia and the stock rallied hard for several days, only to gap up on the announcement.
I warned about this in my group and it turns out this was the absolute blowoff top.
Since then, the stock has been nowhere near 40p.
Here is the chart from the recent year.
For some reason, the company decided to not raise money when the stock was above double digits (or maybe it couldn’t?) but it has raised over £10 million at 2p.
It was obvious the company needed money at 12p, so I should've shorted the stock and covered going net long in the recent placing.
Last year, the stock multibagged from the placing I took at 4p, and the company has just raised again at 2p.
I believe there’s a good chance the stock sees material upside from these levels, because right now we’re in peak fear.
Bidstack has just raised over £10 million at a pre-money EV of less than £6 million.
Nothing is priced in.
But the company has actually made progress with partners and proof of concept trials, and is now starting to commercialise.
Institutions have come on board the register, and the cash leaves enough money for at least 12 months.
Everybody hates Bidstack.
Everybody has written it off.
Maybe they’re right to do so - but the risk/reward here is great.
The company is well funded which protects my downside, and any positive developments may start to change the narrative.
With a change of narrative, the sentiment increases and powers it higher.
We see stocks move because of a change in sentiment all the time.
However, let’s acknowledge that Bidstack still has plenty of risk.
It still hasn’t achieved anything.
History would suggest that the company will disappoint the market and there will almost certainly be another placing in the future.
But with the price trading around 2p, you’re getting a similar entry to me at the 2p placing and are buying closer to the danger zone - the point where you cut the trade.
It's no Vodafone though, that's for sure.
Positives
The refinancing everyone knew the company needed is now complete
Company now at the start of its commercialisation journey
Negatives
Bidstack has a history of overpromising and underdelivering
Not profitable and cash burn may increase further
Yeah good idea buy off of that summary.
What Micheal Taylor is trying to do is get PIs to have a punt so SP rises and he can off loads his placing shares.
So obvious. Bit like Justin Waite.
Good luck following his advice.
Have a look for ads in bids games. And not house ads.
If you start seeing some maybe start to get your involved then.
BIDS is in stronger position now and I do feel this will come good look at latest RNS people rather then reading this BOARD. 3-4 P NEXT MONTH
What the T Bull reach message.
Been lots of RNSs that have amounted to nothing.
Look for ads in games.
That’s what the company does.
No ads in games = no revenue coming in
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BIDS/exclusive-partnership-with-nordeus-nmyeyj9u2twzmo0.html AND partnership with CAPITAL GAMES TO..
Great article find CVB123 & thanks for posting. Liked the bit about being at 'peak fear' & strong risk/reward ratio. That's exactly why I'm here. Thought it was very honest too, especially the final summary (postives / negatives) - there is risk here - as with all investments, but at these levels & after BID's latest fund raising it feels like a risk worth taking. GLA holders.
You're absolutely right Girdz.
When are you & Girdz going to buy a few more here? You post enough in the forum so you must be interested.
Might have a punt like cannacourd.
Plenty of time to get in at those levels
1p share price is £8mil mkt cap.
Absolutely no reason for mkt cap to tick up at the minute as no ads in any of the games bids have announced this year apart from mr bean delivering a sub way.
Whoop whoop
So for clarity - what price are you prepared to buy in (buy more) at? - (Also take it you're not valuing any of the £10m cash raise as part of your calcs).
Girdz,
Look at last years placing, it turned over for 2 months before accelerating to 8p, bounced around for a while then moved up and hit 13.5/14P ...
St Ledgers Day 8th September ....
Last 2 weeks been able to buy in under the placing price .. sit tight and hold for news flow to commence.
No Brainer.
Guys
With respect...I think the forum should be working more together than squabbling over silly little things..like a price movement over a couple of days .....
The private investor is NOT competing with each other as a forum might suggest......all us PI's are up against the machine of the City and the pro traders who can shift and move around the SP and really get everyone arguing in a matter of minutes ... we can be used like mice in an experiment if they so wish...think about it
Need to maybe step back now the placing is done and think of who the PI is REALLY up against
Just wanted some insight of the levels at which the two most negative board posters would consider ('re-')buying BIDs at. Good to hear that Girdz is at least considering it - finally a positive! Think they should dip in now personally speaking as anything from 1.8p to 2.5p is the range i'll keep accumulating at - wouldn't want them to miss the boat.
Guile - I’ll wait to see that things are finally kicking on here.
You could accumulate all you want here but if it’s ends up being a disaster again then could see a penny or less.
50% drop immediately and will need 100% gain to break even.
Don’t envisage seeing much action in terms of ads in august.
Having looked at both the football and tennis management games I think some works needs to be done to established where exactly to put non intrusive ads. No obvious space at the moment so imagine this is going to take time.
Good luck to all with your investment here but will remain sceptical here until I some ad delivery.
“Look at last years placing, it turned over for 2 months before accelerating to 8p, bounced around for a while then moved up and hit 13.5/14P”
I’ve already said why the SP hit 14p.
Go and have a look at the trading update in January and the SP decimation soon after when the truth was announced.
Then short after that 2021 revenue reduced from around £9mil to £4mil. All with out telling the market.
Sly little broker note from a stifel that some one found.
As it currently stands I can’t see Bidstack making £4mi this year, unless there’s an “ads on” in September and there are big names like Burberry, paco rabanne etc like last year.
Thank you for this considered post. I don't think a sudden drop is on the cards here for the next 6 months given that the latest fundraise has now been sorted - but if you have been burned in the past then I understand your additional caution.
I note Helx hasn't yet responded to my question - don't be shy mate - what's your buy-in range and why?
Are we ramping or de-ramping today?
I lose track.
sometimes it's just nice to meet in the middle :D
Guile - don’t be so sure re sudden drop.
If ads are light and infrequent, and TU in Dec confirms this, then fully expect the share price to pull back.
£10mil won’t go far if they are bringing nothing in.
Even £4mil revs is only circa 800k to bids.
The market wants to see bids scale now.
Not another false start.
Can’t keep saying we building out.
I am not confident with the games inventory that bids can scale.
Bids had a decent game last year and lost it. (Real cricket)
Let’s hope they don’t do the same with what they have
Heavily depends on your timescales here. I think they have enough irons in fires to turn this tide & don't think an immediate spike of revenue is likely or expected. Progress that the gap is closing would be a more reasonable expectation. But like you say - if you're waiting until December to find out their confirmed revenue numbers then I think you might be missing any short term rebound in share price. That's initially what I'm here for - any prolonged holding decisions to be made after that point.
Wasn't there another tweeter pumping this earlier in the week?
You explicitly confirmed it was your last post here less than 2 days ago… - really great at sticking to your word lol - shoo shoo deramper shoo!
Guile - I have been clear to in my posts in that I am looking to see ads in games Bidstack says they are in.
I down loaded most games and nothing really so far.
Let’s see what happens.
We’ll have an idea before December, like we did last year, whether bids will get close to £4mi.
And in terms of irons in fires, Bidstack always have “irons in fires” hidden by NDAS.
Your a bids newbie though. You’ll get used to draper letting you down
Gridz, in Dec last year they confirmed they were ahead of market expectation. The came in at £1.7m vs £1.5m forecast.
You say '£10mil won’t go far if they are bringing nothing in.'
Actually it will get them to the end of 2022, even with zero revenue, based on the Cenkos forecast for costs.
The forecast £4m and £9m revenue for 2021 and 2022 will get them £3.2m of additional cash (@ the forecast 25% margin) and will last them to June 2023. Any additional revenue will extend that.