The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
3bn of that is dividends, so can't really count that when comparing to market cap IMO as thats just FCF out of the business for really no benefit to the business. whereas the 7bn reduces the shares in circulation so at least "buys" them something for the cash outflow. then you have to deduct share option bonus's then the true accretive value to the SP is lower again.
JY: good summary, very sensible!
10bn return to shareholders over 3 years vs a market cap of approx 24bn is not to be sniffed at! 200p+ in due course, fingers crossed.
Barclays unveils plan to return £10bn to shareholders and cut £2bn in costs by 2026
https://www.cityam.com/barclays-sweeping-restructuring-weighs-on-profits-as-investors-await-marathon-strategy-update/?utm_source=CityAM&utm_campaign=14c348234f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2024_02_20_10_59&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-14c348234f-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D
Please do your own research as always and follow FCA guidelines.
Like the following plan: Tactic to return capital and reward shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. IMO the continued preference for buybacks will stabilise BARC sp. Plan to keep total dividend at 2023 level will signal to institutional investors BARC is a safe investment.
All my view
Chill out Noclue Doug, its a nice day today.
A very welcome 6% jump up for invested holders as i type.
Of course, it all depends on what your entry price was, im guessing yours was much higher. Unfortunately. Hence the moaning on.
Can always sell and move on of course?
10B GPB return equals to 40% of today’s market cap, and annual is near 14%. With 10% RToE, the bank will make 33.1p and roughly return 20p to shareholders and retain rest 10p for general business. By 2026, if Venkat can achieve 12% as they targeted, each year they will make ~40p per year. NAV will grow by two factors: 1) retained profit from each year; 2) reduced share counts. At 165p buyback price ~50% NAV, 6.6B buyback can reduce 26.3%. If no major market crash, a P/NAV will adjust 50-60% at minimum, luckily we may exceed 70%, which is ~235p.
Yep sold out today at 1.58, after buying in at 1.34. Think the 5% increase today is a bit weird, came in at analyst consensus for EPS / ROTE%, lower on Dividend per share, higher on buybacks but I'd say broadly in line. I guess the forward looking statements have been received well. In particular more cash going back to shareholders over 3 years and the ROTE% targets. The strategic stuff seems very slow winded. They are trying to reduce the impact of the investment bank poor ROTE% by growing other parts of the business, which carries more risk IMO, than a divestment of the investment bank. I personally prefer the way they are doing it but I would have thought the market wouldn't
I thought the update was solid enough, but not 5% plus SP rise territory!
Not tempted to jump on board right now, but well done to and good luck holders.
Currently the SP is up 5.5% .. I'm not sure why the markets have reacted on the upside. For me buybacks never really seem to make a difference and there is no real change in divi. What am I missing?
Jcb208. I thought I read in the report.
TNAV per share increased to 331p (December 2022: 295p).
Where are you getting 422.41 from
Yeah yeah usual blah blah blah
buybacks are a right PITA at least add a penny to the divvi you tightwads.
"strategy update", "structural shake-up" = something went wrong and we haven't got a clue what to do
Seems they can't make money for their shareholders when interest rates are low nor when they're high
Average SP was ~252p in 2015 - can't see it getting back there for a very long time, if ever
Regarding the £10bn of capital distributions by 2026, a comment was made during the management presentation, which is still ongoing, that they expect the cash amount of the dividend to remain fairly constant with the increase in div per share coming from the reduced share count. So no big increase in the cash dividend.
Anyone know when buy-backs are likely to start?
NAV per share now 422.41p so buybacks do make sense 1 Billion to come
A step in the right direction? Usually on results day we see a drop, the dividend plus any other drop, its nice to see that not happening today. My target is still long 2025, I am hoping this year to see a turn around in the economy in general. Who knows but I can hope :)
Divs and buybacks easier to get away with (politicians and journalists are watching...but with an overwhelming focus on divs) and net result to us is ultimately the same. Comes down to multiples.
We need a whopping divi here for us holders, special divi the lot.
I agree with you, they are not great with small companies and charities. I hope the new initiatives will help or at least they should grow up and tell certain customers that they actually don't want them. Focus is not a bad thing, but it needs good communication and transparency.
The other big UK banks are no better by the way. Personal experience!
"Capital returns: plan to return at least £10bn of capital to shareholders between 2024 and 2026". I believe consensus was around 9bn, so a 10% instant adjustment seems possible.
Will come down to the CEO's ability to present a coherent case this AM. NAV also up. Looks all pretty solid to me.
The biggest risk is another scandal, something they have been quite good at delivering in the past!! 😀
My recent experience with Barclays was nothing short of a complete disaster .I had to send the same information to their KYC team on at least four separate occasions -they kept denying they had received the information and kept threatened to close the account-they had no clue of UK company law and kept insisting a company with a turnover of £6 k required an independent accountant/auditor-no wonder the city has no confidence in them
Looking very good at the moment , could we see 10% today,
So pretty much in line with expectations - it makes sense to buy back shares while the price is low. I'd have liked the dividend to be a tad higher though.
Most of the metrics are slightly higher than forecast with a reduction in profit down to restructuring costs. But savings over the next two years should feed through to the bottom line. However cutting costs is one thing, growing the business after you've taken an axe to things is a different matter. Venkat's sales job today is to convince the market that he's got this in hand.
Where the SP goes today will depend on how well the restructuring programme is received. There's also a separate RNS announcing the formation of five new divisions which should focus the business a bit more coherently.
For once pay a decent dividend instead of useless share buybacks which do nothing for the shareprice based on recent movements and do not reward smaller shareholders
It is Barclays' policy to declare and pay dividends on a semi-annual basis. The 2023 full year dividend of 5.3p per ordinary share will be paid on 3 April 2024 to the shareholders on the Share Register on 1 March 2024. A half year dividend for 2023 of 2.7p (H122: 2.25p) per ordinary share was paid on 15 September 2023.