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Started: Elgrebe, 15 Jun 2024 11:28
Last post: Rookie1, 15 Jun 2024 20:02
I have no doubt everything will get hit one way or another. They want to reset the system and bail everything out, it’s communism coming through the back door, all part of the plan and all part of the WEF not so great reset.
Call it conspiracy theory if you like, but the war with Russia etc and Saudi dropping the petro dollar is the start of the brics v western currency’s.
The western currency’s are worthless junk diluted into oblivion and propped up by money printers, the brics want to be away from that and the yanks with their gangster attitude of confiscating anything they like when they feel like it.
The west are literally printing money and buying gold with it through the central banks. They are robbing every work man/women blind and transferring the real tangible wealth back into their own pockets. When they let it collapse they will lose nothing and banks will be bailed out and become state owned.
“You will own nothing and be happy” used to be their motto until people started asking questions.
Everyone should be buying any gold they can with real life assets and certainly not sat on large quantities of cash in the bank no matter how inviting the interest rates are.
Anyone who wants to call this conspiracy theory I would suggest you read a book by James rickards, ‘the elites road to ruin’ he’s an ex advisor to the fed who wrote about the dual world reserve currency’s going head to head and the collapse of the dollar. He wrote this in 2016. Months
I have a small concern that to fund the election promises the big banks could be subject to a “windfall tax” at some point in the next couple of years. The energy companies are first on the list at the moment but giving the banks a kicking is usually popular with the public. It seems an easy option for a few million quid and political popularity. No plans as yet but if the money runs out…. Just a thought IMO.
Here comes the retest of the 50 SMA. It’s all tea leaf reading ;-) better than blind guess work I suppose ‘jamesk2k66’
Not really traded gold a lot, I should of but I was mostly indices. Also closing my SB's, I don't leave them over the weekend and I have a hectic week next week. Be interesting to see what happens next week if this closes under 200 which it looks like it might. Been a good Friday, have a good weekend mate.
I’ve closed my shorts here as I think it will retest 205 and then I’ll reopen them 👍
Good man jayk! I’m always in and out of gold but im Long term always long and think it will see $3000 within the next 18 months.
Downside ? Worst case looking at the charts 2200 but I would be surprised if it got near 2250 now that the fed have announced less rate cuts all the bad news is factored in. Anything else happens in this crazy world and it will set off like a rocket again. Can’t go wrong with gold.
Rookie - I took a look at Gold also after you quick mention and am long at2318.28 - Turning into a nice Friday., thanks!
JCB208. Great to hear, profit is profit as the old saying goes. Winning to play the game another day.
Has this anything to do with it: LONDON, June 14 (Reuters) - Britain's Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) has asked Barclays to review its exposure to leveraged finance, a source familiar with the matter said on Friday, part of an industry-wide probe into lenders' exposure to the private equity industry.
The Bank of England in April said very few banks had a clear idea of their "holistic" exposures to private equity, putting them at risk of a "large loss".
Rebecca Jackson, the central bank's executive director for authorisations and international supervision, wrote to bank risk chiefs at that time setting out the standards they should meet in assessing exposure to such risks.
A spokesperson for the PRA declined to comment.
The review takes the form of a so-called section 166 report, the source said, meaning that an independent skilled person will look into the matter.
Regulators worldwide need to examine more closely the $8 trillion global private equity sector, as opaque leverage makes it hard to get a picture of the risks it poses to financial stability, another Bank of England official said in April.
Private Equity funds raise money from big institutional investors to invest in non-public companies, a more opaque form of funding than the public capital markets.
Globally, assets under management in the private equity sector have increased to around $8 trillion in 2023, from about $2 trillion in 2013.
Bloomberg News earlier on Friday reported the Barclays review.
The potential outcomes from the review are unclear, and it is the first of many such reviews the regulator is expected to require of the industry, Bloomberg said.
I said I was guessing and I didn't really know.
There's no need to get upset.
And I also mentioned the review you linked
I recommended comprehending replies before knee jerking an emotionally driven response.
Checkricky, how do you 'know' that? Why are these French snap elections so important to barclays, we have left the EU and barclays is a much focused UK bank, the link you post is just a review nothing more nothing less, this collapse is not based on that.
IMO this recent route on the banks is yet just another reason why the london market is the worst out there, takes an age to go up, and a second to come down. There will be HNWIs benefiting in the background have no doubt about that it's how it was, how it is and how it always will be, go up take profit collapse it and use any old rubbish / excuse to justify it then rise it again. I believe the term is rinse and repeat. The sooner we all get used to that the better.
It's got nothing to do with labour wining the general election duurrr all political leaders have been doing the same rubbish for over 20 years
It's to do with the French elections a bit as the EU banks are down and have been falling for 4 days now
And more to do with the news in the link below got nothing to do with any other banks before anyone starts spreading any cr@p simple. It's always good to do your homework before spreading nonsense
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/barclays-told-review-leveraged-finance-085235399.html
I don't know really but my guess is labour winning general election so uncertain about impact on banks?
Uncertainty tends to impact share price a lot
Maybe also todays bank of England ask for reviews
I see the regulators are are sniffing around again
UK REGULATORS HAVE ORDERED BARCLAYS PLC TO REVIEW ITS LEVERAGED FINANCE BUSINESS - BLOOMBERG NEWS
Started: JayK, 31 May 2024 12:19
Last post: Reader61, 12 Jun 2024 23:35
I concede it is speculative but it is also logical and a consideration. Banks have high profits and increased net margins due to current market conditions, inflation, interest rates etc. Large banks almost have a near monopoly grip, hence the inability of challengers to rise. It is likely, not unfounded or silly that a government will look to reap from such businesses, the precedent is being set with oil and gas. During the pandemic, dividends were cancelled due to political interference and the weakness of the banks to resist.
So a consideration, not a certainty, that is what the board is for, a discussion forum for debate of opinion and ideas. As I said, anyone so easily taking fright should maybe avoid and you should not try to close down avenues for discussion, its not your board.
Some things stress me out, these board comments are not one of them!! But silly unfounded negative posts do frighten some people and there is no need for it, if they do announce they are going to increase bank taxes fair enough but until that point , it is a pointless comment.
You guarantee that do you and trust the politicians not to increase bank taxes? I think you are naive, If you get stressed by discussions on the board, I'd suggest you avoid.
Labour is not looking at imposing a windfall tax on bank profits if it wins the general election on 4 July, according to reports, so why cause scaremongering on this board, it will make no difference to share price what we say on here whatsoever, just cause a little unnecessary stress...
What about the Labour windfall tax on bank profits, surely that's going to hurt?
Started: MCMLXVII, 5 Jun 2024 08:49
Last post: MCMLXVII, 5 Jun 2024 08:49
Up over 50% in less than 4 months. I am happy with that performance.
Problem is with share trading in general, its not very rewarding, as human nature will dictate that the vast majority when in profit will sell, therefore if the assets continues to rise after ,you feel bad, very few will sell at the peak, and, if you have been holding at a loss for some time as per a lot of Barclays holders, it is even more tempting(to sell) as they have been in agony for such a long time!!, very few people will have the stomach to simply keep holding after being 'under water' for years!!
Started: boonie, 1 Jun 2024 11:45
Last post: boonie, 1 Jun 2024 11:45
Started: checkricky, 31 May 2024 10:25
Last post: maxcess, 31 May 2024 11:00
Barclays only making up ground to the others mentioned, as for years it has traded at a discount compared to it's peer group...
Interesting price action over the last week with Barclays Bank hitting a 52 week high will it take out the recent 52 week high and the 5 year highs. Time will tell hope other banks like Lloyds and NWG move towards the same targets
Started: ripley94, 28 May 2024 23:10
Last post: ripley94, 30 May 2024 09:28
Thanks for comment boonie.
Just had a quick look at your posts July 2021 , you do not make comments rather just posts news clips you have found .
167 to 220 I make 31.5 % over 3 years , not sure what divs I have had .
Not that good picking shares , was not sure if that was a good return ?
Lower risk then the many small caps and Aims I hold maybe .
Nice trading,good profit
8/7/21 Buy 167.5p Sold for 220p .
January 2022 they hit 214p
Then got a lot cheaper 135p October 2022 , 130p October 2023.
Started: atfabricationsbt, 28 May 2024 14:24
Last post: atfabricationsbt, 28 May 2024 16:50
Thanks for the information James .
Sorry for the typo in my previous post. I was in the rush.
1. expected next buyback announcement (Aug 1st) is £1.1-1.2B (2024 total ~ £2.1B)
2. 2024-2026 three year total buybacks ~£6.4B.
3. Daily money used in buyback is £10M or lower. I saw this amount changes from £7-8M per day in the earlier buyback days and now ~£10M per day.
What Barclays announced buyback for this round was £1B, not £500M. The bank also announced they will return more than £10B to shareholders through dividend and buybacks. Dividend will use ~£3.6B and buybacks ~£6.4B. We should expect by next earning Barclays to announce another round £2.1B-£2.2B buybacks. Based on current pace less than £10M cash is used for buyback, the first round buyback will cover every trading day till August 1st (next earning announcement date). If the buybacks control the money in this amount, the buybacks will happen in every single trading days for 3 years (starting from Feb 21, 2024). Cumulatively, we should see 2.1B to 3B shares bought back by Barclays after this 3-year buybacks.
Hi can somebody let me know why the buy back hasn’t finished ,as they have now bought 544 million shares .
500 million was the figure they stated at the start ?
Started: checkricky, 28 May 2024 08:34
Last post: checkricky, 28 May 2024 08:34
Good to see Barclays hitting a new 52 week high today, I hope other banks like Lloyds & NWG will also attempt recent 52 week highs. Long may it continue 👍
Started: boonie, 26 May 2024 20:15
Last post: boonie, 26 May 2024 20:15
The coming year, with a contested general election, more geopolitical turmoil and other wildcards, promises to be especially intriguing. How might things play out? Below, we lay out three possible directions.
The base case is better than what bankers experienced in 2023 but still meh: The Fed cuts rates three, maybe four times in 2024, bringing short-term rates more in line with long rates, normalizing the yield curve. The benefits of those cuts are balanced by a modest recession that dents the repayment abilities of consumers and small businesses.
Bank valuations rise modestly, led by institutions that the public market perceives as having more resilient business models. “You have a mild recession, maybe a little stagflation, but it’s not the end of the world and you’re set for a rosier 2025,” Moss explains.
In the bull case, inflation rates decline and the economy slows gradually—but not enough to generate a meaningful recession. The Fed lowers rates as many as six times, and the yield curve takes on a more traditional look.
Improving margins, stable asset quality and surging profits appeal to the generalists, driving valuations higher. “In that scenario, banks make more money and bank stocks go from the 8.5 times earnings they’re trading at today to 12 times earnings,” Fitzgibbon says.
The bear case has several possible permutations, none of them encouraging. In one version, the Fed’s tightening overshoots its mark, and the resulting recession causes non-performers and charge-offs to rise in sensitive areas such as consumer lending and commercial real estate. “If you have to raise your loan-loss provision from 30 basis points to 80 or 90 basis points, your stock might drop 20% and your earnings could fall 40%,” says Jeff Davis, managing director at Mercer Capital.
Started: boonie, 23 May 2024 12:21
Last post: boonie, 23 May 2024 12:21
Announcement Commencement Date Completion Date Buyback Amount Shares Purchased Average Purchase Price
Full Year (2022) 13 March 2023 14 April 2023 £500m 343,041,720 £1.458
Half Year (2022) 17 August 2022 3 October 2022 £500m 306,326,717 £1.632
Full Year (2021) 24 May 2022 16 August 2022 £1bn 625,019,884 £1.599
Half Year (2021) 2 August 2021 30 November 2021 £500m 266,987,647 £1.872
Full Year (2020) 19 March 2021 22 April 2021 £700m 377,356,751 £1.855
Started: JamesYoung, 11 May 2024 06:45
Last post: Stuffyblobfish, 21 May 2024 11:23
Sold alot of my banking stocks and tech stocks in UK/ US. Don't like these highs on all the markets. Moved into cash, bought a few major miners and add a few metal plays.
I basically agree. Whilst the s & p 500 is overvalued the mood music at the moment is positive so the rise will continue. More specifically Barc is undervalued relative to TNAV due to its dysfunctional investment bank which has a talent for presenting investors with high bills and fines, yet less good at returning value to shareholders.
I think BARC price jump relates more to company's shareholder returns. It is not due to higher revenue, better earning and booming economy. In past three years, both topline and bottom line are actually sliding. UK economy has been hovering around flatline. And I don't think investors believe company's goal of RoTE 12% and growth story. At best is the attitude is wait and see.
The key is Barclays net profit at such lukewarm growth and UK economy can buy itself out in just a few years and the bank is seriously doing it. The massive buyback simply points the logic hole in current stock valuation model, which assigns a 14% or higher capital cost and apply assumption in cash flow model, it then arrives at the numerical conclusion the bank is not creating value to shareholders, rather it is destroying values. The reality is opposite. The bank is very profitable and it will continue be so until a big recession and some stupid mistakes happens. Another round of cycle starts again.
I took a check from US back to UK many years ago. When I turned the dollar into sterling, NatWest simply took away 40% of my money. This is the way how they do business and make profit even though I was not happy about the loss.
I know there are many poor people in UK and US as well. Barclays and banks are not making money from that population group. You can not simply go through the tents in downtown Los Angles and take away the conclusion US economy and stock are done. It would completely wrong.
Hi, I think the FTSE and BARC have both improved recently simply down to the fact that both banking sector and FTSE have underperformed the rest of the worlds stock market. There is now value in both.
That said I am starting to liquidate most of my holdings as when the US. markets go we will follow, know where near as deep but enough.
No upset from me, truth or lie makes no difference, its how many act on it makes the direction of the position.
I believe you have misplaced your judgment, due to thinking you are the next short rain man.
Each to their own.
Started: checkricky, 16 May 2024 12:16
Last post: checkricky, 16 May 2024 12:16
Https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/markets/20293-lloyds-bank-and-natwest-set-to-benefit-from-robust-economic-conditions
The above should apply to most banks
Started: Bloomers_Blower, 16 May 2024 08:27
Last post: Bloomers_Blower, 16 May 2024 08:27
The reality of the boom is the us is borrowing vast sums to fund an unwinnable war, as well as malinvest in batteries and windmills. Once this extraordinary rate of borrowing stops and subsidising totally inefficient industry stops a huge bust will of course inevitably follow in the late 20s. Whilst they can borrow and print without excessive inflation this of course looks ingenious, when it's actually ruinous.
Barclays in Focus
Based in London, Barclays (BCS) is in the Finance sector, and so far this year, shares have seen a price change of 37.56%. The financial holding company is paying out a dividend of $0.26 per share at the moment, with a dividend yield of 4.82% compared to the Banks - Foreign industry's yield of 4.37% and the S&P 500's yield of 1.57%.
In terms of dividend growth, the company's current annualized dividend of $0.52 is up 40.2% from last year. Barclays has increased its dividend 4 times on a year-over-year basis over the last 5 years for an average annual increase of 12.05%. Future dividend growth will depend on earnings growth as well as payout ratio, which is the proportion of a company's annual earnings per share that it pays out as a dividend. Barclays's current payout ratio is 39%. This means it paid out 39% of its trailing 12-month EPS as dividend.
Earnings growth looks solid for BCS for this fiscal year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 is $1.60 per share, which represents a year-over-year growth rate of 15.94%.
Bottom Line
Investors like dividends for many reasons; they greatly improve stock investing profits, decrease overall portfolio risk, and carry tax advantages, among others. However, not all companies offer a quarterly payout.
For instance, it's a rare occurrence when a tech start-up or big growth business offers their shareholders a dividend. It's more common to see larger companies with more established profits give out dividends. Income investors must be conscious of the fact that high-yielding stocks tend to struggle during periods of rising interest rates. With that in mind, BCS is a compelling investment opportunity. Not only is it a strong dividend play, but the stock currently sits at a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold).
Started: Mavis1711, 14 May 2024 16:23
Last post: idandy, 14 May 2024 16:40
I for one am holding Mavis - I think the sentiment has changed for the better with Barc - also capital returns promised going forward should continue to lift the sp.
I am sure others on here have a different view and obviously only time will tell but if you dont need the cash now it might be worth holding on ....
It depends on your entry price really,Mavis.
The majority seem to be bullish on Barcs (meaning think it will rise)
I myself think it’s got to be near its top but I said that at £2.05 and I’ve been wrong so far.
Only you can make that decision and none of us really know where it’s heading.
The charts show it is overbought and due a cool off(pull back) but again they are just a guide and can be wrong aswell.
If you’re in profit I personally think it’s a time to sell. You could get another 10% max in my opinion and there are much safer ways to make half that on your money.
GL whatever you decide
Please help I have been holding these shares for so long
I am no expert I know you can't guarantee anything but what is everybody doing selling or holding
Any advice ?
Getting there 🙂
Good luck.
Sorry, mid Feb lows were £1.40! So currently already at 55% increase since then 3 months on.
It all doesn’t stack up to me, I’m adding to the short.
GLA
Hmm, Barcs will have done nearly 50% rise in 3 months if that’s the case, RSI is hot and I can’t understand why the FTSE is climbing and climbing in the overbought range either.
It all seems about as real as the V shaped recovery after closing the economy for a year and printing £500B. Lol is it just me or is this whole thing propped up and we are being told everything is rosey?
By the end of next week??
Last post: Bloomers_Blower, 14 May 2024 06:59
i don't think it will deal with it. it simply increase by time. i recall ppl saying silly thing about russia being a petrol station with nukes, does that make the west a *** club with nukes and windmills? ultimately anyone who grew up in the west can see how it's deteriorating in terms of culture, language, quality of ppl. the period of us dominance is ending rightly so because it's so utterly aggressive and so totally mediocre.
* their, not they're
True it has a big debt.
But it's very capable of dealing with it, over time.
Stop the money printing and see how strong they are. They just keep raising the debt ceiling one day it has to stop or people realises it’s a rigged system with no actual value, which is exactly what it is.
If it wasn’t for cheap mexican Labour it would collapse tommorrow.
$34 trillion in debt and adding billions by the week.
I think the dollar will continue to be a strong currency.
They're economy is having a bit of a wobble as institutions get ready for another unsettling Trump presidency.
But they're contry and economy will stay strong.
America have some of the best universities in the world. It has a young energetic, educated population with lots of access to cheap labour.
Easy access to materials and business from South America and Canada.
It'll be a major player for our lifetime at least.
Basically agree. The poison is government paper, which banks assume to be zero risk weighted. Obviously a psychopathic group that produce nothing and just steal wealth should never be so highly regarded by the financial system in terms of their credit worthiness. States believe they are too big to fail when they are manifestly not.
Started: Fredd1eboy, 3 May 2024 22:03
Last post: MrWolf, 9 May 2024 18:22
@ Rookie1 - "The money printing propping the US up is just getting ridiculous, currency’s are becoming worthless imo.
Most brics nations are de dolarising as a total lack of trust in the currency and are moving to gold instead in case of a collapse, hence China buying gold for 17 months straight and continues all time highs for the metal." They certainly are, Russia and China have been hoovering up for ages, Russia were amounted massive G' reserves 4 yrs before they officially kicked off in the Ukraine. Shrewd ole chap Putin, everyone loves gold when ya know sanctions are coming into play.
As for making the same mistakes as 2008 the writings all over the wall.
@ JayK - Great clip, notice you didn't try an fishtail ya mate, give it a few more years and you'll be looking at 7 seaters and not saloons lol.
When ever I see that track I think of Niall Mackenzie back in 1989 going from 9th right up Schwantzs' rear tyre in 2 laps challenging for 1st place, whole of the Park was roaring and cheering !
Not too mention (you'll appreciate this) leaving The Park, turning left and heading for the M1 in glorious sunshine . . . on a Goose 11 Slingshot (no lights and traffic obstructions like today) plod didn't even bother rolling down the motorway on-ramp as they knew I wasn't stopping and it was pre helicopter days lol.
How times change aye, W'
My take is more so on the US and the housing market jayk. I think the exact same mistakes are being made as they were in 2008.
The money printing propping the US up is just getting rediculous, currency’s are becoming worthless imo.
Most brics nations are de dolarising as a total lack of trust in the currency and are moving to gold instead in case of a collapse, hence China buying gold for 17 months straight and continues all time highs for the metal.
I have family in the US and I’ve just got back a few weeks ago,they can spend money, I watch how they pull equity out of their houses so easily and go buy the latest pick ups/boats/ jet skis. They have everything leveraged up to the hills and once it pulls back I think it’s going to be a real mess again.
Admittedly it’s Not as bad here but I see the help to buys and the 5% deposit mortgages etc, it’s only a matter of time until there’s 100% mortgages creeping in,There’s absolutely no room for pull backs again.
Just my opinion, i remember saying this over a year ago when it was last at £2 and everyone was saying this was a new breakout then, i bottled it and closed my short at a tiny profit and watched it plummet to my £1.50 target! Typical!
This looks more like a rerate than a spike to me
@Rookie, interesting to see how our long term views are completely different, I'm positive over the next 2 years. We can speak about it at the end of the year or next, or I might cry if my account balance is zero :D
Afternoon Mr Wolf - Most nights the little ones sleep 12hrs, this week has been tough with both getting bugs, we do have black outs for the kids, certianly does the trip with it still being day light at 7pm bed time "Daddy its not dark yet, I don't want to go to bed" :D
It seems that there is no time for anything and generally my mind is not right to be day trading again, even though I went with the long on the breakout. I will see how todays candle closes and likely exit that trade, I don't like todays rejection candle. I am still long for investment purposes. Its funny how differently we look at things on different time horizons.
I have managed to get out on track after 4 years in the car, twice now and its definitely a nice break (day out) away from a hectic life, not in a race car now but still, its great fun!
https://youtu.be/uIR1T9ziQzs?feature=shared - Chasing a friends GT3 RS, well trying too :D
Started: MrWolf, 9 May 2024 17:46
Last post: MrWolf, 9 May 2024 17:46
Wonder how many have noticed the Cup an Handle setting up on their weekly chart ?
Not going to jinx it an post the T area, usually when these formations give, they give.
Still see heavy traffic upto 240, lot of resistance
We would have challenged it 18 months back, if it wasn't for the over selling fiasco.
The foot is coming off the brake pedal at last, one good sign is that Barclaycard are upping their customers card allowance automatically, when the SP started dropping off, they were contracting their card lending.
It's usually these small signals to look out for.
Mind you I always empathise with those who still hold Barcs from pre crash and have high averages, having to endure watching Barcs S.P kick the can down the street all these years, gutting.
Anyhow, "another day and another dollar"
GLA
Started: JamesYoung, 8 May 2024 22:03
Last post: Bloomers_Blower, 9 May 2024 08:16
Their pillar 3 report will have the composition of their capital. The overriding problem with Barc is the IB is capital hungry, has huge costs and historically generated very little return. Having worked there everyone wanted on in the cushty numbers that was the IB The rest of the bank effectively subsidises the IB.
Might be some tier 2 capital. I've not looked most of their capital are either shareholder funds or retained earnings.
Might be some tier 2 capital. I've not looked most of their capital are either shareholder funds or retained earnings.
Do people hear long enough knowing what rest book values are. TNAV is just above 50B pound (335p per share). Goodwill is pretty clear 7B pound. What are “other” 14B pound assets are? It runs rather constant based on Barclays release from IR website.
Nearly all US banks PB are running above 1. But Barclays are more measured by TNAV. There are a large discrepancy between TNAV and total book value.
Started: driftking27, 8 May 2024 00:09
Last post: MrWolf, 8 May 2024 09:52
@ Boonie - Totally, never pay the slightest bit of attention to them "Fools"
Article from motley fool, take with a pinch of salt
Is the MRNA board for BARC board..
On Barclays, which I have held 11500 since 2009, I’m feeling now is time to move profits to HSBC;
At current SP 209p, it trqdes on 8.2 times earnings, which is no longer ‘cheap’ in historical terms I believe.
What’s more, its dividend yield of 3.8% a year is now below the 4% yearly cash yield from the wider FTSE 100.
In other words, I don’t regard this stock as crazily cheap any longer.
Then again, I have no idea what might happen to the Barclays share price in the short term. It might keep rising, or reverse — any compelling arguement?
I expect earnings to fall in 2024, due to weak credit growth and rising bad debts on credit cards / loans, and sorry to say rising inflation end of year into 2025.
I’m happy with GS & HSBC banks I have.
There are lots better out there…