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With the aggressive interest rate rise. Time to get serious about this now! Let's see if the spineless cowards in the BoE have the balls to follow suit.
Fcuk the housing market and the fools who got suckered into paying pathetic prices for a property using ridiculous amounts of leverage which partly got us into this mess. High time for the property market to now feel the burn! High property prices benefit no one but the super rich elite!
" High property prices benefit no one but the super rich elite! "
What a load of rubbish.
This should be interesting to hear! Who else does high housing prices benefit then but the wealthy? Homeowners doing well I hear...err not really in real terms! The rungs on the ladder are wider than ever and are in almost the same position as first time buyers if they wanted to upgrade or even move like for like. Only those who use the housing market as an investment benefits....the wealthy elite!
The spinless cowardice of the BoE raises by a pip again. When are they going stop artificially propping up the catastrophic mess that is the housing market?? Trust me, when those 2 year fixed rates end on all of those lemmings who jumped on suniks bandwagon of no stampduty and practically were spoonfed leveraged capital, then siht will hit the fan. Tick tock!
Back to the late 80s/early90s baby yeah!
No stamp duty was a bonus, but mortgage interest rates were actually higher then now during that short initial period. I speak from someone who moved home during that time, any additional borrowing was 3% not the current 1.5% 5 year fixed I was on. I decided to just put the extra cash than borrow, but those that did borrow will have increased capital in their homes when they renew, mortgages will still be relatively low, LTV will be a lot higher for these people and their houses will be worth 10-20% more (as an example) (Yes had mine valued as I am now extending it). Those lemmings were pretty smart to move then, how prices were still generally low, if you stayed on your interest rate great, and your now 10-20% up on the purchase. Those lemmings could even take out some equity and buy some more buy 2 lets which turn in more revenue monthly than their mortgage interest rate, smart lemmings.
Well we have the answer! The markets needs to believe that central banks have a handle on this and that's not happening with the BOE at least. The gov claim the bank has autonomy but i'm struggling to believe that the BOE are so out of touch that they think 25 basis point rises are going to make much of an impact on 9.1% inflation unless they are being constrained? Base rate should be 3-4% by now IMO. That's still quite low when looked at over the longer term but is being sold as draconian in the UK. As you have said, B+ (better late than never) for the FED and a big fat "F" for the BOE.
All IMHO of course GLA
I guess if they consider that inflation is being driven more so by supply chain issues, labour shortage and policy, rather than the cheap supply of money, then turning up the cost of money too much would burden people even more without having an equal impact on reducing inflation. Seems like a bit of a tight rope that needs a slow and steady approach, but if we wait patiently, whilst our fragile economy finds it's footing, it's going to go that way and benefit the long term shareholder.
Flabbs, I think the points you make are in line with the political narrative for the low key rises we have seen so far. I honestly think the UK has forgotten just how brutal the impact from high inflation can be. It's like we are back in the 70's again with industrial action being threatened from different groups, continued rising prices and the press having a field day talking about it all. What of course the politicians don't want to tell us is that the fiscal policies they implemented to get the country through the pandemic now have to be paid for and that is having a big influence on inflation.
The reality of the global drivers for inflation can be seen when we look at countries like Japan where inflation was at 2.1% the last time I looked (May). Of course there are differences but Japan has very few of it's own natural resources so they are far from immune from the economic pressures everyone else is blaming. The BOE seem to be increasingly out of step with other central banks which is T1's point. We all want this to end in a soft landing but looming stagflation looks to be making that less likely. That said you are right to suggest that the supply of cheap money is not the only factor at play and that central bankers get paid big bucks to walk that tightrope. I think the markets now believe the BOE are indulging in too little too late.
All IMHO of course GLA
I bet the government are really hating this high inflation at this moment in time. Like hell they are.
Any thoughts on the reason for the drop from 162 yesterday to 157 today, with no material news specific to barclays out today and FTSE near flat
I can only go by my instincts Bhavik and think talk of bear markets, inflation worries and global recession are affecting global equities sentiment. Rather than any actual crash, it seems a two steps forward and three steps back pattern. And when economic woes hit the UK, banks suffer harder than most. And when UK banks suffer, Barclays seems to suffer the most (despite the buybacks!). It finished on the loss leaderboard today, significantly the worst performer of UK banks, with Standard Chartered and HSBC actually amongst the highest risers! My instincts tell me we will be back in the £1.40's before the £1.70's.
@Bhavik - Barc is stuck in a trading range atm, consolidating, so yesterday's 162 was just profit taking, how ever the FTSE 100 lost 140 points over night so watch the fun and games here this morning, low 150s coming minimum
This is really having a bad time of late .....
Yes it is Rocklawn. Which is why (a) I don't understand what the board are seeking to achieve through buybacks and (b) why people seek to predict where the SP is going through charts. Global and economic market conditions are sending bank stocks down (with others of course) and whilst it may be argued that Barclays business model separates itself from the other banks and suffering more than the rest of late, I think the other main issue besides market conditions is 15 years of negative sentiment against Barclays. IMHO I can see people making money day trading on the stock or buying in when there is an irrational crash, but seeking long-term capital appreciation on this stock is hopeless. You have to go back over 5 years to see when the SP last closed above £2.30, so analysts putting forward targets of £3+ (£3.69 was mentioned the other day!) are having their minds altered in some way. If the Barclays board cared about improvement in the SP (and I am not sure they do), they must have realised that business results are not going to take it there on its own. They must recognise the devastation banks behaviours and the SP has done to investor confidence over the last 15 years and to seek to redress it, they (a) need to act ethically and responsibly and eliminate the negative behaviours and (b) they have to recognise that investors will need attractive returns on their investments - and for many years the returns have been atrocious. Otherwise, where's the incentive to invest long-term in Barclays?