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It is hard to say without having access to the communications they had with government. Were Avacta misled by HMG, or did Avacta prematurely inflate expectations based on pre-contractual talks with them? The situation moved very fast (I believe Cummings described government as crashing about like a supermarket trolley), so what might have seemed like a dead cert one month, fell flat the next.
Equally, there isn't evidence that investors were deliberately misled. What motivation would there be for Avacta to do that?
GJ, I can't see any evidence that they acted in "good faith". In fact when you see how the saliva test was side lined along with BAMS test and BBI being dropped as a manufacturer some time after they knew ,suggests they do the minimum in updating the general market.
As for bella's speculation, anything is possible but everything (to me) points to some problem in manufacturing test. ND previously highlighted the lack of a large trial and again at one stage AVCT I think, were promising one but so far it has been a relatively small numbers and the absolute minimum to get the validation approved.
So I think there has been a manufacturing problem as that would explain the delays and BBI dropping out, It explains why Calibre sales got off to a slow start, why there have been no large orders (including big business and govt's) and why to date, we have not been advised of the 30m per month Asian manufacturing partner, this might be wrapped up with TT issues? My hope is that this has been resolved now and the update will be positive and address these points particularly too, the commercial validation for sales globally which after UK & EU certification, AS said were so similar as to be something of a formality and would not take long, but that was months ago.
The BOD are adopting a new communication strategy.....
https://th.bing.com/th/id/R.2b30324c9ef94902d96a9b2496ab5656?rik=5q1zhZcAcjkKNw&riu=http%3a%2f%2fen.bcdn.biz%2fimages%2femails%2f320x192%2fa3a996a0-c8be-45e1-bea9-59ac36f760e5.jpg&ehk=wafvvbBm7SROHOINuUG2WrBCxaWvmetVXI4blJa0Hro%3d&risl=&pid=ImgRaw&r=0
You say you don't want to dissect the whole process, but it's important to frame the scenario when there are accusations of deliberate misleading of investors. Taking a step back we can see that Avacta and their management acted in good faith at all stages.
NDN, I genuinely don't think there was an intention to mislead investors. My feeling is that management fell into the trap of believing that it just follows that if you make the best test then the markets will buy it. I think they were naive on how government and politicians operate, and have been caught out.
Anyway, I don't want to sound too negative about the LFT's. The truth is no one has a clue how things are progressing on that front, as there haven't been any material updates in that respect. We might be mildly surprised if there's a solid revenue stream coming in that pays the wages.
Well you could argue that they were successful in developing an LFT, but got it to market too slow. However, we all know that something a bit fishy has been going on with the way that both the approval process has appeared to put up barriers and move goalposts, whilst opening the door to inferior tat.
We were in an emergency situation, so any grace that was afforded the likes of Innova could have been granted to Avacta and the other UK manufacturers. Instead, we saw one barrier after another put in the way, to the point where Mologic were even threatening to take the government to court. Hopefully the full story will emerge some day.
In reality, Avacta produced a first class product, in a short time frame. If it had been approved earlier, the likes of mologic, BBI etc. would have invested to ramp up production to required levels, and happily supplying part of the governments needs, if there had been the intent there on the governments part.
There is a question over communications, I won't deny that. Some of the statements regarding selling all we can make are a bit misleading and meaningless unless we know how many can be made, and recent updates on this front have been lacking. On the other hand, the market was notified that talks with the government were slow. This coupled with the shift to reliance on vaccines was a clue to everyone that the gravy train was coming to stop. I do not believe investors were deliberately misled however.
My take is that Avacta's reputation with respect to the science is intact, in fact I would even say boosted. This has been a brutal lesson on communication, and probably explains the radio silence now, but for sure the reputation has taken a dent in that respect.
Whether the SP takes a plunge on the back of a poor LFT update I do not know, and remains to be seen. My sense is that any sell off will be snapped up pretty sharpish.
Gje - the current price will be smashed if it is true that low/little revenue is expected from the LFT. The credibility of Avacta will be reflected in the SP, should this be the case. It won’t be allowed to move on, unpunished.
Let's not go there! There were plenty of opportunities to adjust exposure over the past few months, or ride some other opportunities back up :)
Really this does indicate that at this price there is almost zero expectation of any large LFT contracts. Any that happen to come along will be a decent bonus. Just looking at the current snapshot, in a sense this is a positive as this now appears to be a stable price.
Without being too negative, the sell off has been since 270. It’s only us idiots left holding!!
It was good to see there wasn't a wholesale sell off just because another company got a contract. We are making progress...
Worth considering not all that contract money is going to the Chinese. All these tests are bought via resellers, innova backed by us hedge fund etc. So they are taking their cut, a large cut I imagine.
More than likely, maybe they’ll let the Chinese tender for building the new fleet of nuclear submarines! I suppose it depends on just how big the brown envelope is!
Makes you wonder what actually gets discussed in these meetings with potential clients and the UK government or is it just which brown envelope is bigger???
We are selling 1 million a week to someone so nothing to worry about....
Let’s award £billions more contracts to our reliable open minded Chinese ‘friends’ to ramp up their military spending!
https://apple.news/A1yXNg_UaQom9v1-HUyhwcw
I assume that is the end of any chance of a government test order.
Best we can do is vote the corrupt bunch of criminals out next election. I have no idea why anybody voted for them anyway.
Is Bethel still there? No coroboration.
It’s actually dangerous for every day life buying inferior test
Tbh I don’t think we need all sales from uk
something is very wrong, either with HMG, or with Avacta marketing.
Are the Gov not aware of the optics of feeding China whilst ignoring UK diagnostics?
Are Avacta team just not good enough to get their foot in the door to make a deal?
Even if I were not invested. this situation of continually buying cheap chinese tests (whilst trying to hide behind buying from non Chinese distributors) instead of buying UK developed and manufactured tests with the best accuracy is just wrong.
Not to worry, with the quality of their lfts and “made in China” stamped all over their subs, I would be surprised if they’re even watertight.
Yeah that’s right. They create a pandemic, receive $60billion from selling PPE and LFT’s to the their Western foes. They’ll be able to build a whole fleet nuclear submarines for that with change left over. Maybe someone should remind Boris of that!!!!!
Clearly supply volume and price remain prime drivers for UK procurement & not efficacy, so our Chinese ‘friends’ will always be front runners which is somewhat of a smack in the face for our home industry, and an unlikely scenario if roles were reversed.
If that's true its incredible. Our government once again selling their souls
They should be giving us £4b (minimum).
Call it compensation or something daft like that.
couldnt make it up.
So, we've done a deal with Australia and USA to assist Australia in building a nuclear submarine fleet to ward of the Chinese threat. But just so it's a fair fight, we've sent the Chinese £4bn to help them along.