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Thorno =🤡 just ignore
The trouble though Gje is that you calculate the issued shares against the total number of shares in existence.
What moves the share price on a week by week basis is the number of shares issued and then sold by Heights relative to the volume of shares bought and sold over the same period of time. This is obviously a much, much smaller number of shares and the impact of these shares being released onto the market will be significantly larger than your rather benign interpretation.
Indeed it's this disproportionate and ever increasing downward pressure (more shares at a cheaper price with every conversion) that can so very destructive in terms of the longer term share price.
The term 'death spiral' is used for a reason.
You stated:
"CLNs need buying volume and news to sustain buying pressure to counter the constant downward pressure on the share price."
Let's assume 45p for the share price, given it's likely the rns will be monday/tuesday next week, and that the price is taken as a 10% discount of the vwap of preceding days. The upcoming payment will look something like the following:
| Coupon Payment (£M) | Amortization Payment (£M) | Cumulative Repayment (£M) | Total Shares (M) | Dilution (%) | Cumulative Shares (M) | Cumulative Dilution (%) | Balance (£M) | Share price |
| 0.62 | 1.9 | 2.52 | 5.59 | 1.57 | 5.59 | 1.57 | 36.1 | 0.45 |
That's a dilution of 1.57% this quarter and 5.59m shares over roughly 65 trading days until the next quarterly payment. That is an average of 84,600 share per day that needs to be absorbed. Since we dropped to 50p we have on average traded around 4m shares per day, so that represents an additional 2% shares per day that need to be absorbed. It's the kind of transaction that sheppy eats for breakfast.
It's 3 months then until the next quarter, say around July 22nd, at which point the 2w results are likely to be coming into view, so that 84000 shares per day just becomes insignificant.
On top of this we have just had GSA capital open a short position, so there's 1.75m shares of buying pressure that need to be closed right there ;)
Predicting an outcome is only as accurate as the information being analysed. Nuff said.
Bring back technical analysis at least that has a basis in statistics 🤣
Well yes, the volumes traded per day could go up or down, adjust the scenario to suit your predilection.
As for TA, you could ask wyn for a 10 hour session when he next pops in for a cup of tea 👍
So someone opening a short position expecting a significant fall in the share price and you're saying that this is a good thing because when they close it it'll put upward pressure on the share price.
Hmm.
Correct, if they have already opened at 55p and look to close around 45p (presupposing this is the HC sell floor), then yes, they absorb 1.7m of those shares.
The conversions havent had any impact on the share price in the past. It is a known even and must be baked in. We have our cash runway to commercialisation and no more road blocks to realise the massive value here. I was invested in SAR @11p and got out way too early. Wont make the same mistake here, pharma is going ballistic with huge M&A deals. We are a sitting duck for a US player looking to pick up UK business on the cheap. i wouldnt want a takeover at this stage but an offer would certainly help to stablise the share price.
TA, Already posted that 41p was the likely target when the SP was above 51p
Winne it’s about time you come clean. Who do you work for? Nobody would spend the time you do on here otherwise
Watching you are on here more than him
He's the resident 'Clown Spotter.'
Invaluable input.
Three clowns in a row. Or is it the same person!
Counting yourself there Watching?
How apt.
watching you are simply stupid. why cannot other people have a view which doesn’t match yours?
people can post on here as often as they bloody well like just like you do. and for what it’s worth you talk **** must of the time
Why be negative and talk a share down ? That you’re part of ?
Because predicting what a share price is likely to do (and calling it right) tends to allow you to either make money or not to loose it -which amounts to the same thing?
Or is that not the point.
You can like the company and what it's doing but choose to not invest in it until you feel that the time is right.
Discussing views with reasoning allows posters access to a range of views that they can choose to consider to guide their action: agree, ignore, green bin or hurl abuse.
I was agreeing with you until you said ‘discuss views with reason’. Does that include discussing your own views with a separate login that’s also you?
You see you’ve lost all credibility you might have had, and it’s unrecoverable.
Thorno. You have multiple amounts
So you’re response is total c ra p
Sheppy still finds time to be miserable on his (fantasy) holiday in the Maldives.
Yes, yes, multiple accounts, paid for trolls. There are 5 or 6 of us working for Tom.
There I've gone and admitted it now.
To think that's the level you have stoop to to persuade yourselves that you're in the right.
You wouldn’t be right thrilled if you were sitting on a £270K loss but fortunately it hasn’t ruined my hols😉
If you can give a rational explain why Captain Stanley replied as you on a thread I’m willing to back off. But that’s what happened. I think it makes your posts irrelevant. I will continue to point this out. It doesn’t take me long and it makes the reams that you write futile and pointless. Like I’ve said before, admit you screwed up, give up this login and start again.
And I haven’t particularly stated whether I’m in the right or not. All I know is that someone with multiple logins on a share BB talking to themselves on the same thread is either mad or manipulative.