The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
SJ, no - but see my post of 9-8-2020 concerning the potential valuations.
AAA shares are roughly 6p which means it is presently valued at circa £46M - excluding warrants etc.
Their only real asset is a potential 18% of ASLR.
So, if that AAA valuation is anywhere near correct that suggests ASLR is worth a whopping £255M - again ignoring warrants etc.
I'll ignore the warrants as it complicates matters and the figures appear pretty way out anyway.
Presently ASLR has 105,361,443 shares in issue, so if it were to be worth £255M each share would be worth 242p!
That appears too amazing to be true however in a proposed placing earlier this year - subsequently cancelled - warrants were to be issued exercisable at 130p and 280p.
So if the AAA share price is anywhere near "correct" as a valuation ASLR could come back at somewhere way, way north of the 47p price it was suspended at, and indeed substantial numbers of ASLR shares were subsequently traded off market at 70p it seems by someone who it appears subsequently became a director of AAA.
Also the AAA share price has increased by around 100% since the ASLR/MESH deal was announced.
And various insiders were bidding up the price of AAA warrants when the AAA price was around 1p-2p.
I guess on readmission to trading it will either be boom or bust - and not much room for anything in between.
Possible fireworks either way.
Does anyone have any idea what sort of value 24M shares in MH, which will acquire 100% of the Sentiance share capital, will be worth in terms of £ and SP ?
Confused.com
Cheers.
From the RNS looks like trading again Monday 24th August, or possibly the next day.
Placed on MESH website a few minutes ago....
"MESH is pleased to confirm that during today’s virtual AGM all resolutions were duly passed.
As a result, MESH will shortly be issuing 24.0 million ordinary shares to Asimilar Plc as part of
the settlement agreement that was announced on 3 August. The Company continues to
make considerable progress with the proposed Sentiance transaction and expects to provide
further updates to shareholders in due course."
https://www.meshholdings.net/wp-content/uploads/MESH-AGM-Result-and-Update-20-Aug-2020.pdf
Issue of 24M shares to us later today, and trading tomorrow?
RNS from ASLR must be imminent.
Be nice to get a listing date, been too long.
Sentiance has been busy. 'Insuretech Product of the Year 2020'
to go until the MESH resolution meeting. I wish I was able to decipher the whole transaction malarky and get an idea of what this will open at !!
GLTAH
MESH announcement 3-8-2020 - "MESH will compensate ASLR through the issue of 24 million new ordinary MESH shares as part of a full and final settlement. "
"as part of"
Mmmm...
So what is the rest of the full and final settlement if the 24M is just "part."
Or just sloppily worded?
No mention of anything other than the 24M shares in the ASLR RNS - when they stated " this arrangement will directly benefit Asimilar shareholders".
They seem to think it is a good deal - but I'm still well puzzled as to how all this is going to play out.
The proof will be in a return from suspension around 20th/21st August - will we start at 47p, or 70p? Up or down from there? Who knows, but the first few days could be mighty interesting.
What we are interested as ASLR holders is the upside and why we've opted out and given up our rights to acquire a big piece of Sentiance, in exchange for shares in Mesh.
ASLR presently have 105M shares in issue @ 47p, suspension price, giving it a market cap of £44M.
The most recent off market trades were @ 70p.
AAA have 1.2M of these shares and options for warrants over a little over 20M shares in ASLR.
These warrants are exercisable mainly @ 18p , but some @ 6p. The agreed price with the sellers of the options was 231M AAA shares at 1.5p.
Since these warrants were purchased the AAA share price has increased from 1.5p to 6p, or 400%. AAA seemingly hold almost no assets other than these shares and warrants.
Now a really extraordinary thing happened last week whereby the sellers (unknown) of the warrants agreed that due to the increase in the AAA share price instead of getting 231M AAA shares they will now get only 48M AAA shares - very roughly they are now getting their AAA shares at a price of around 7p, instead of 1.5p - they are voluntarily giving up around 400% profit.
What is more AAA with presently 781M shares in issue @ 6p is valued at £46M.
But their only real asset is the potential interest in around 22M ASLR shares, which if all the AAA options are exercised would be very roughly 18% of the ASLR share capital. There are some other ASLR options floating about so the % could be less.
So assuming the ASLR market cap stays the same 18% of £47M is £8.5M. So the present AAA shares are around 5x over valued.
OR ASLR is 5x+ undervalued and if the 6p price of AAA is correct ASLR shares should be around 235p - not allowing for any other options.
If the 235p valuation is correct then after AAA takes their stake, assuming no other options are exercised ASLR would be worth approx £300M.
But ASLR's seemingly main asset is to be around 9% in the issued share capital of MESH, which if no further MESH shares are issued, would value MESH @ around £3Bn.
So either the MESH/Sentiance deal is very, very valuable indeed and everyone is about to make oodles of cash here, or someone has got their sums wrong.
If anyone thinks it is me, I would be happy to be corrected.
All figures approximate, of course.
In reply to you last post - yes that appears to be the case.
But how is Sentiance actually to be paid for?
And AAA now has a market cap of £47M based upon presumably owning a relatively small proportion of ASLR.
So what does that make ASLR worth?
Baffling.
SG, I'm not really sure what is going on.
I did invest in ASLR as a bit of a punt, sold half prior to suspension after a good profit, so whatever happens here now I'm sitting relatively comfortably.
AAA, yes their main asset is shares/options in ASLR, I think they also own a legacy Far East resort, which presumably now only has a nominal value.
As for PIRI, TRAF, AAA even DEV I did think at one time they may all be involved in fundraising for supporting ASLR in acquiring Sentiance. Of course now it appears ASLR don't require cash for Sentiance, they're simply getting 24M shares in MESH for giving up their options and interests.
As for MCC I think holders got shares in MESH, which were then in turn suspended and delisted.
I was worried the same (suspension/delisting) could happen at ASLR but we appear to be safeish now, and will be readmitted to trading shortly.
Could be fireworks that day!
(Or not)
There also appear to be many cross holdings here - Chris Akers has shares in just about everything, but Mrs Bonnier it now seems not only has increased her holdings in MESH, but also has shares in ASLR. Same applies to most of the other big holders - they've mostly got fingers in each other's pies - no doubt all carefully worked out by themselves but unravelling it all and working out what is going on and why on the information pi's have could be quite tricky, if not impossible.
Then there are the options in ASLR at 135p and something like 250p......
MESH seems to be the vehicle they are moving ahead with now, as Mrs Bonnier has something like 14.8%, but the recent announcement means, as Mr Bonnier is resident abroad the normal M&A rules don't apply.
Why MESH, unlisted I'm not sure - maybe those non applicable M&A rules are important.
Quite where it all leads I'm not sure, but the AAA price is up something like 2000% since it became involved with Mr Akers and ASLR and 106% since the ASLR/MESH deal was announced.
I take that as a positive for ASLR, but as we are all "locked in", we have very little say in what is going on and just have to sit here.
And how is Sentiance to be paid for?
And have the FCA forgiven Mr Bonnier?
Interesting, if nothing else.
Thanks - the higher AAA goes the more "stressful" it becomes. As well as more intriguing.
AAA up again today - astonishing.
Up 18% to 6.0p (5.80p to 6.20p) reaching a high of 6.1p at one stage.
Are the people pushing up the price real investors or just punters jumping on a whizzy share?
It is now up 106% since the ASLR/MESH deal was announced, and as AAA's only real assets are shares/options in ASLR then one can only presume that the increase in value in AAA is based somehow on the implied value of ASLR.
In fact AAA is up around 20x since Chris Akers became involved.
And ASLR's main asset is shortly to be around 24 million shares in unlisted MESH which is aiming to take over Sentiance - the value of which is really unclear.
Either this is the modern day equivalent of the South Sea Bubble or a few well invested people are about to clean up.
And yet so little commentary anywhere.
No doubt all will be revealed, one way or the other, by the end of the month.
AAA up 11% today so far - 5.15p (5.1p - 5.2p), now up 77% since the MESH/Asimilar deal was announced.
I guess that is a thumbs up.
Hopefully ASLR will be trading again towards the end of the month and we should know a little more about the MESH/Sentiance deal then.
Out of suspension shortly after MESH agm!
that does sound very reassurring . I wonder if ALSR will relist immedately after, and what plans are next for ASLR.
Hi everyone, I just got this email through from MESH, looks like the cogs are finally turning..... fingers crossed for all parties!
3 August 2020
MESH Holdings PLC
(“MESH” or “the Company”)
Settlement Agreement with Asimilar Plc (“ASLR”)
regarding Sentiance N.V. (“Sentiance”)
MESH is pleased to confirm that, following the announcement on 14 July 2020, it has reached a definitive settlement agreement with ASLR regarding their Subscription and Acquisition Option rights in Sentiance.
In order to ensure the best long-term outcome for all stakeholders, including being able to effectively capitalise in the near term on the rapidly growing business momentum of Sentiance, the various parties have agreed that MESH will solely be implementing and executing the Sentiance transaction arrangements.
Under the Settlement Agreement, ASLR no longer holds any rights with regards to (i) 20,000 ordinary Sentiance Subscription Shares and or (ii) the Acquisition Option pertaining to 32,225 existing ordinary Sentiance shares. In return, MESH will compensate ASLR through the issue of 24 million new ordinary MESH shares as part of a full and final settlement. The Company will allot these shares to ASLR shortly after the completion of the MESH General Meeting on 20 August 2020.
" we've been issued shares in unlisted MESH"
should be
"offered shares in unlisted MESH"
Barely any commentary on any boards relating to this saga.
Odd.
Oh, I'm sure in reality COVID isn't an adequate reason for a 6 month extension - but what the heck, they've now got until 14-2-2021 to complete the deal, and in the interim they remain listed.
Which is more than MESH are, and we've been issued shares in unlisted MESH.
No comment as yet as to whether such shares are considered adequate by the ASLR board - may be following that that 6 month extension MESH shares look perhaps less appealing than they did yesterday, if ever they looked appealing at all.
Can't help but feel that ASLR would be the better vehicle to use in order to RTO, although it appears it may be RB who has access to most of the cash.
ASLR keeping mum for now, and AAA shares are still up 54% on when the MESH/Sentiance deal was announced. And many hundreds of per cent from when AAA became involved with ASLR.
I await further developments with interest.
Not sure whether COVID is an adequate reason for not doing the deal...... Waiting, waiting, waiting..
Small mention in The Times this morning -
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/bonnier-has-his-eye-on-data-business-0frgv6pxg
The financier Robert Bonnier has become executive director of a cash shell that has launched a takeover attempt of a Belgian technology company....
Growingballs. I think that is a fair summary. This RB guy seems to have the balls to make this happen and potentially, the backing. From the updated MESH website, it seems he has helped Sentiance for a very long time. This leads me to believe Sentiance is probabaly already a monster and lined up perfectly.
This also seems to free ASLR to relist in the near future.
Shorters beware and take cover, Sentiance looks like a Beast. Check the partners!
GlA.
Why would ASLR want restricted stock in MESH rather than its own opportunity to acquire a material stake in Sentiance? I don’t get it. Why would ASLR put its value at the mercy of MESH?
It’s looks like they’ve possibly managed to stitch a plan together. R. Bonnier in the mix looks very interesting also, there seems to be mixed opinions on this. However can’t see that having a driven smart entrepreneur as part of the team could do any harm whatsoever, it doesn’t matter what the papers say, old news and probably down to journalist sensationalism. At the end of the day we got news and that’s one box ticked.
Raising £70m seems unlikely in current economic climate, particularly when £50m couldn’t be raised for the same transaction last year. Also a listing isn’t going to happen with Robert Bonnier on the board.