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All the people that sold over the past few days have been rolled.
£2b MCAP is fair value, this share is undervalued
Typo, I meant Most of these issues are external issues which the business cant control
I’m holding, sp will gradually recovered once inflation, energy prices and supply and logistics are all under control. There is just to many issues impacting the business and subsequently the sp. Most of these issues are internal issues which the business cant control, i.e external factors impacting the business.
Hey…. Arnold, what you write is just utter dribble because the only purpose it serves is YOUR AGENDA! It’s that simple, no need to blur the lines! Everyone knows fully what’s going on currently, what will these shares be worth in a couple of years… answer me that!? Pretty sure it won’t be anywhere near 500!! Try 2500 and you may be closer… you’re just trying to get people to sell because that’s WHAT YOU WANT! If you claim anything different, you’re a LIAR.
Excellent discussion on both sides, please keep the good posts coming. Few months ago I raised some of the concerns shared on here more recently.
Why is Free Cash Flow so negative? -143.8m on the negative. I know they were expanding last year when things were looking good but surely they should've shut down the US expansion, etc. long time ago and try to get back to positive FCF.
Earnings are great but when you need to pay down debt, you have less sales, it's cold hard cash that matters! Any stock with negative FCF gets killed in the current market including big fish like Pinterest, for example. Even Amazon took a bad hit. I can't help but feel that a lot of ASOS' problems are entirely self inflicted!
All the negative stuff is a constant across the whole market and most consumer companies, so naturally this is also having an affect on Asos.
However, once again you need to look at big picture and social infrastructure needs, and Asos play a very import and key part now days.
To value Asos under £2b is insane
Have you listened to the latest earnings call? The COO has stated that the company will have capital restraint. This mitigates your point of a raise, as you are assuming that CapEx will remain elevated. As for Topshop, topline growth is very promising and adds to their view of ASOS having different brands for different price points.
Mr Jon H
I appreciate your comments and sentiment. I used to ignore negative posters and have lost a lot by ignoring the good ones. I should have taken heed of those who post with substance.
Asos looks fantastic in non financials. However the financials in black and white are really important and any investor ignores at their peril. The reality is even before the U.K. consumer was being properly hit with the cost of living this company has reduced PBT forecasts to a paltry £20m to £60m from £120m ish. At the same time net debt has risen to between £75m and £125m at the year end. Stock has risen massively to £1bn. These metrics are not good. Yea they bought Top shop but I am not entirely sure that was a good buy. As I say my points are simple and factual. IF new ceo and non execs decide that even the current pbt forecasts are not achievable then this company will have to raise funds alongside a warning. I don’t know if you have followed recently stocks that warn even not by much BUT they can fall 30% easy. Fundamentals go out the window as they hunt for funds. This stock could go to 500p on a raise. If this company were trying to ipo now with the numbers above it would not achieve £500m. All I am saying is at least understand that. Good luck
Do people actually believe that the negative market situation will truly affect Asos that much....
From a macro economics point of view Asos are in a very strong position. The high streets are dead and everyone buys online.
The one demographic that consistently buys clothing is the 15 to 35 age range because:
A: they are growing and physically need new clothes
B: they are the demographic that put fashion and new clothing as a priority and have less strain on their finances for home bills as they don't have kids themselves.
C: clothing, alongside food and utilities is an essential and something that is still bought in the very worst market conditions.
Do people not see the power position that Asos now has in the market. The fact that their main competitors are now owned by them, the fact that the 2 other highest web traffic fashion sites are for 45+ demo.
Honestly boggles my mind that Asos is currently so cheap. Within 6 months this will be in the 15 region, and should have a true market value of £2b.
The bears are running around causing havoc so they can harvest shares to sell back to the bulls over the next few years. People selling now are being rolled to see cheap.
If Asos stopped business tomorrow there would be no one, repeat no one that could replace them for at least 2 years, that's how important to the consumer market they are now.
Anyone letting the inane drivel posted on these boards influence their investing decisions are nuts! Long or short
What you have written is illogical. Why should someone not be able to short a stock, if they can go long it? Yes I am short, I'm also right about whats happening, and you WILL lose money.
Look at hey_Arnold’s posting history.. short on BOO and ASOS, says it all…!! If I was going to ignore anyone it would be you - BLATANTLY OBVIOUS AGENDA!!
Shame on you for trying to get people to sell, you absolute low life … People like you should be banned from these BB’s!
P.s JonHarris is an idiot and doesn't know what he's talking about. He just puts out random numbers without having a clue. Please ignore him or you will lose money.
All the bullish people in here need to take a step back and look at what is happening. Energy prices are sky high and this is only the summer. Wait until people get their bill for winter once their heating has been turned on for long periods (which will be astronomically high), then lets see how many clothes or any other consumer product they buy. Everyone is saying this is priced into the stock, I can assure you it is not. I expect multiple profit warnings and ultimately expect they will need to raise from investors as already mentioned, and they wont do it in the bond market given rising rates and therefore the cost to service the debt.
I'm sorry but this looks dire. Someone the other day suggested there wasn't a need for ASOS to prop up their balance sheet. I disagree. They are burning cash and if this trend continues they will be calling for institutional support or from existing shareholders within a year because they will be in breach of covenants. ASOS hopefully will see this through evenyually. Its going to be a tough time for online retailers for the next eighteen months at least. On top of that Shein will be making the most of it through their beneficial Chinese tax rates. It does not look good in the short term. I'm very tempted to just sell out above £10 and look for better opportunities. Quite frankly, I'm not sure what to do.
You can't put Asos in the lower category that Joule is in.
And £2b to acquire the whole of Asos and instantly have one of the most powerful fashion channels, also at the time when the ramp into markets of EU and USA are starting mature, seems like a bargain.
For a start you alot of MEA region business people that are looking to invest funds from oil back into secondary and service industries, alongside this the USA itself could do with more quality and decorated online fashion retailer to a major position, also the emerged Asian markets that would like to take an established business and brand to deploy in home markets while at the same time getting the rewards of having an established business in foreign markets generating income.
£2b to buy Asos while the markets are down is a bargain. A few years from now with positive markets the worth could be more towards £6b given both past and market revenue potential.
Jon I really don’t mean to be a party pooper but there is no metric in the market that says asos should be worth £1bn more than now. So sorry but there isn’t. They need to deliver on what they have said and get that debt down and profits up. However, if there is someone out there who would buy asos then there might be. Just not sure who that is at the minute when the likes of next can pick up nice brands v v cheaply (Joules). £2bn is a big bite for anyone in the current market.
If ya selling now then you are being rolled by the big boys.
They know that while the market is in holiday mode they can force the price down and set off auto sells.
This stock is undervalued by about a £1b. This current market will only be here for another few months and then the bulls will turn up to buy everything at discount.
@commomsense - I said May performance was strong - not the trading update
Scallop I sold, I'm also sitting on 9k loss with spoons, I'm not sitting waiting on asos, using the cash to trade.
Was that the strong update where they reduced guidance pbt from £110-140m to £20m to £60m ? And increased debt guidance to £90m to £125m ?
Sorry to hear that, but hopefully you haven’t sold ? I am down a hell of a lot more but only on paper
I lost 8k here... Looks terrible
In the last 3 month update - May performance was strong. Since then we’ve had a cracking summer and some good updates from other retailers - why wouldn’t ASOS too have benefited ? I remain optimistic for 15 by year end and still say this should at least be 20 or vulnerable to take out - hope I’m right
I have a prediction we'll be waiting a lot longer than October for any good news that will lift the SP. I don't think results are going to be too pretty. Prepared to be wrong though.