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AML targeted 1400 orders for their new DBX by mid February. Current order bank reported to be well over 2000 already and, with the very positive DBX press reports starting to land now, it looks like they might double their own expectations by the middle of next month!! Looks like they have a winner on their hands in the DBX.
Couple that with a very likely deal to inject £200M into the company from Lawrence Stroll and the picture is starting to look much more positive. With the SP so low today, it's got to be a hold or buy for me.....I know some will disagree, but really think the SP is bottoming out now.
Ross,
AML needs more than £200m, and something in the region of £500. Orders are great but they need money to allow production to go ahead at a rate which buyers will accept in terms of waiting times. There are alternatives to AML and the wealthy will not be patient if they see the supply slowing, rather than speeding up.
jimjam, totally see your point of view, but a £200M injection (could be more) will have a considerable effect in steadying the ship and open doors for further investment/borrowing (hopefully at better than the 15% they have available already!). Fully understand the need to secure production at a decent level, but personally think that can be achieved. It's by no means a perfect picture, but there is a positive way out of this for AML.
Ross, you can buy a new AM for £125,000 so £200m equates to 1600 cars, so on the face of it one would expect an injection of £200 m to resolve the barriers to continued success. However whilst they appear to have orders for up to 2000 cars, these could fade away if AM is particularly slow to deliver. I am surprised that AML found itself having to pay 15% for finance which is likely to mess with profit margins. DYOR they say, however its not easy to get a clear picture with AML, or indeed with most of my shareholdings, GL.
Hi jimjam
Yep it's not exactly crystal clear, this one! I see Citigroup has just placed AML as 'buy' with a target of 600p - they see it holding risk, but with considerable profit potential.
Hi Ross,
Profit potential definitely, how do they get there and in what timescales? Beautiful cars for those who can afford them. It would not surprise me to see the price of vehicles rise to increase margins and allow them to produce fewer but still move into serious profit. 'Would like to be a fly on the wall in Board meetings. The orders were needed to meet the conditions of financial support to date but there would have been some that did not want to see so much pressure on production.
more pressure = more buyers = more bids, that's how I see it... ;-)
less pressure = more fundings = higher sp, you got it's a win win ;-)
Strong rumours that there'll be an announcement this week. Stroll could be putting in c.£300M.
SP might fluctuate prior to concrete news, but easy to miss out on any rise if you miss the boat. Time to hold or buy for me....
Was starting to wonder if I'd got this wrong, but now the games begin. Staff have been told that it's Stroll who's investing initially. That suggests that there are more twists to come.....interesting.
So, after Friday's announcements, what brave soul would like to predict where this SP goes over the next month?
It's an interesting one...
Based on the price action, this will fall back to support around the £4.00 handle and will jump on the 27th February when the updates about DBX are due. It doesn't help that the broker target has been lowballed to 520p, that would be the top, but still there are trades to be taken! GL
Well predictions for end of February : My heart says £5.00+ my head says £4.00
The markets do not like the degree of uncertainty that is currently attached to AML hence the sp is dropping and is likely to continue to fall near or even below £4 whilst there is doubt on whether the business has the ability to deliver on its order book. AML could be up to £6/7/8 by the year end provided they deliver on the orders in a timely fashion but the question is will it drop to £3.50 before then, even in February. It could be one to watch and buy below £4 IMO
Hi jimjam
Don't think you're far off the mark there, although I doubt it'll drop as far as 350p.
See Citi are saying buy with a target of 600p, although they don't mention any time scale on that.
Personally, think it will fluctuate down to mid/low 400s and bounce back late Feb. DBX orders apparently running about double AML's internal expectation. If they can show they're on track to deliver on time, with the help of Stroll funds, it could prove a VERY shrewd buy and hold. Think Citi are bang on at a target of 600p.....
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/share-tips/stockbroker-tips/broker-tips-aston-martin,-prudential,-senior
OK I sold out at 4.54 - I wish you all well - love the product - but I have to take profit & follow my instincts - GLA
Briston, if you managed to profit on selling this low, congratulations! Keep an eye on the stock at the end of February there will be updates on the DBX which is already acclaimed and called the best luxury SUV and there should be some boost in April with the new Bond movie, I am still looking for a change to get back under 400p to meet my rules! GL All.
It will remain on my watch list for ever - Nice rise today so far - GLA
Wondering about the China market for AML, if borders are effectively closed for a period what is the likely impact on AML?
boring here as expected(yup around 440 called wks ago)... looking for some movement in the coming wks gla ;-)
Yep istock, you look about right again. Holding pretty form around the 450 level, any significant drop below that and it might be worth jumping in again. Still see this at 550+ again in the near future.
I would say wait for it RossBM ;-) gl
Hi istock
Yep, not going to rush in - it lifted yesterday when the new Vantage convertible was posted out on social media, but that car won't have any material effect on their future and SP is already dipping downwards again. DBX order bank is what we want to see confirmed, that's the important one. Next update at the end of the month, although I'm informed that it's VERY healthy and picked up after the Stroll deal was announced. So, looking like a good short/medium term bet if you can buy in at low 4s.
Drifting back down until the next hint of a buyer, then up it will go, then oh I think I'll pull out now I've got my profit, 3 times now isn't it?