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I'm feeling pretty positive about today to be honest!
Wait and see!
Let’s hope Graham who can be positive for us all.... prior to all dilution this had no correlation to the FTSE and would go it’s own way but no just follows it every day!
But we have the DBX news coming.... it's also F1 again today.
Keep the faith!
The share will follow the FTSE without any news that is logical. I am hoping some driving reviews of the DBX will come shortly to help.
The Gaydon factory will reopen also however we have the Q2 results looming over us and I doubt we will be able to grasp at anything positive from that.
Unfortunately this is a sit back and wait for the new team and the plan to start to kick in. Still great upside later in the year.
Hi CC
I agree that this will be ok just a case of sitting on hands for a bit longer don’t think I have ever checked a share so much still not sure whether to top up or not but only me can decide that
Yep i agree CC.
This has now become a real long term hold.
With that debt dragging along behind them, it will take some time to steady the ship and turn it around.
It will happen though. Just needs 3 things in place.
Patience, patience, patience!!
Hi Arsenal.
I'm ready to increase my holding at sub 45p, and then in tranches down to 35p, depending to where it gets.
Price will just bob along until 29th July. Then see some volatility for a week. Then find it's ongoing level until the positivity here starts to take shape and become fact.
Morning all. Arsenal and Selecta, I’ve bought at 86, 67, 49 and will add again if it goes to 40. As already stated many times, Rome wasn’t built in a day but I think the future for AML with the Stroll and new management is extremely bright. It will take sometime to turn it around but I’m happy to patiently hold here and add if it drops further. GLA
Good morning all,
First of all, please let me assure you I am not short, thinking about gong or short, or indeed even able to short AML.
I want to believe the turnaround story, and AML to survive.
But I also want to discuss real figures, and come to some consensus on everyone's input into what that turnaround story entails. I am sure we would all agree that information is power, being naive and emotional in the stockmarket is a road to ruin (I lesson I learned myself). If you're ahead of the game, you make money, it's that simple.
I've been on BBs sharing information for as log as I can remember, good and bad BBs.
No one learns much when a SP is rising, but we learn quickly when it's falling.
I'll post my homework in the next couple of messages, and would love to hear your thoughts, happy to be shot down in flames for any mistakes/oversights....
You’re already busted as you have only posted 19 times but have been ‘sharing information on BBs both good and bad for as long as you can remember’. Got to do better than that with your short agenda!
Debt:
68 Million in June, which is payment in kind btw, half cash, half shares. I'd be interested to hear how you think that's going to work, more fundraising?
https://www.ft.com/content/79f611e6-653c-4a30-b581-b66e54cbf231
In March they opened a 100million credit line, see here: https://www.ft.com/content/62064885-1aae-4dae-abac-b3a6420f41c8
This link shows margins are between 12.5 and 13.5%, so way lower than the 30-40%. Therefore 4000 DBXs per year would make a profit of circa 83.2 Million per annum.(using 13% profit margin)
https://www.ft.com/content/18930d7a-432f-11ea-a43a-c4b328d9061c.
That link also shows they started the bond drawdown of £150 million at 12%.
So all in, that's 318 million of bonds at 12%. That's 38.1 million interest alone, without even thinking about the other £880m debt.
I’ve not looked into all the older debt, but from memory the last bond of circa 150 million is at 6/6.5%. Before that it’s difficult to tell.
Income:
Goldfinger Aston martin sale price is £3.3million per unit:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-8487979/First-3-3MILLION-Aston-Martin-DB5-Goldfinger-continuation-car-completed.html
"A quarter of the Goldfinger DB5 Continuation Cars are unsold, meaning you can still order one today"
So let's say a quarter of 25 is 6/7, that's only 17/18 sold £3.3 million = £57 Million turnover, not profit. Let’s assume 30% as RBM suggest, profit of £17.1 million
150 Valkyrie models, deliveries of the £2.5m hypercar, the most expensive road car in British history, will now begin next year.
That's £375 million TURNOVER, not profit, in 2021. Margin @ 30%, profit is £112.5 Million
DBX: Let’s just say for argument...4000 cars x 160k is £640 Million TURNOVER, not profit.
25% profit margin (between my figure and RBM’s for argument sake) which is £160 million profit per annum, up to say £180 mil for extras etc.
The other models are not selling well, and I haven’t done as much homework on them as 2019 was pretty dismal and most cars were sold at a loss, but anyone with info on sales/margin etc, I’d be happy to hear it.
So in a very good 2021, we have profit of 180 + 112.5 + 17.1 = 309.6 Million, plus whatever comes in from DB11 etc.
Debt is around £1 Billion, and needs serviced. This is the problem, bondholders don’t trust AML, and are charging 12% and agreeing to shares/cash for repayment in some kind of warrant? be interested to know if anyone has seen this PIK type of thing before. The same bond holders are trying to sell that debt on, I guess they are nervous.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/aston-martin-bondholders-shaken-by-stirred-up-markets-51587381319
In effect C
You are saying you expect them to make a 300m gross profit, but out of that needs to come about 38m interest?
That leaves 262m profit, sounds pretty good to me..
Aqua, please remember the loans have to be repaid, not just the interest. That's where it gets a little more difficult, especially with the bonds, all due in 2022.
It's a bit of a knife-edge, making enough cash to be able to repay those loans, because I am not sure AML can borrow money any other way (to refinance them) right now. If they do what I set out below, then lenders *should* be more willing to lend at lower rates, but we are entering a recession right now.
This year is a write off, which we all know, it all hangs on sales in 2021 (& end of 2020).
I think we all know and agree on this, but it's nice to think it through with figures, so we can quickly appraise the Q2 results and news.
Hi C26 well let me be the first (and most probably only!) person to thank you for putting the effort into calculating the figures above. I have stayed on several occasions in the past that I like discussion boards being exactly that and hate it when people get discouraged from giving their opinion.
From your figures best case for 2021 would be
£120 Million interest to service the debt? which is Aprox half the potential profit?
While we are here though I would love you to answer a couple of questionable if you don’t mind?
What’s your interest in AML?
What’s your background?
and finally why are you taking time out to produce all of the above because you clearly at least appear to be very knowledgeable.
Rox, thanks!
I have no position in AML now, but was very long quite recently.
My background is creative, nothing to do with finance, but I love research and obviously the profits are enjoyable. Made plenty wrong calls, but I cut the losers fast and run the winners.
Honestly, I am well up for sharing ideas and will take on any criticism or praise.
It's the only way we all learn.
I'd say you're close regarding 2021, yes. Like I replied to Aqua, the full loans need to be repaid with interest in 2022 though.
I want to be long again, seriously. When Q2 figures drop, I want us all to be able to read them, share thoughts and adjust position rapidly. and for me that more than likely means buying a huge chunk... if they say what I want to hear.
Nice one mate! Very well founded!
Hi C26.
Thank you for your thoughts.
Well thought through, and very accurate.
Especially, if you have no finance background.
Lots of positivity going forward for AML, and i'm in and waiting to build up my holding.
The bald facts of the current position and recent history, will hold this stock back for a while.
But, i do feel it's primed to improve. Just a question of when.
You seem positive on the stock, despite current issues.
Just one question.
Why are you not buying in now, ahead of Q2 figures on 29th July.
You run the risk of missing the first sailing of this boat.
Thanks Selecta,
I never mind missing the bottom, I always wait for a share to turn for a bit before diving in.
I also want to hear direct from the company, journalism can be lazy and miss things. (Cash balance/burn is important in Q2 results... there is a chance of another fundraise short/medium term if cash is burning too quickly)
I was hoping to just post a quick positive response, but others have expressed further interest, so I thought some extra info may be useful to include within your figures.
Set against the 883m debt, was 244m cash, that I can't see included.
The 883m debt, included 109m of lease liabilities, which traditionally would have just been considered operating expenses, but now have to be included, hence why all companies now specify the lease figure.
The difference here is that lease costs are part of the monthly operating costs of the business, not like bonds which have to be repaid out of profits at some future point.
You have assessed the profit margins of DBX at 13%, but failed to account that a lot of the debt is capital expenditure, prior to delivering DBX's.. i.e. You have to pay for the parts to build them, before you get the money back when you sell them.
This means that the first batches of DBX's profit margin will be significantly higher, as the cost of building them has already been absorbed.
Then there is the placing, which raised another 152m, not included in your figures.
Don't get me wrong, I think the figures at end of July will not make happy reading, but if we take your 893m then deduct 109m leases, 244 cash, 152 placing, we are left with 378m plus current running costs to sort.
How much of that is covered by the first batch of DBX, I've no idea, but you may consider this is more manageable.
BTW, all information taken from the Trading Update on RNS.
I'm nursing horrible losses on this as a complete newbie, who kept buying at 72p.. aagh!! but I'm still sat here holding in expectation of a turnaround.. Could just do with some back to pay HMRC in January.. :-)
@C26.
Spot on.
Can't fault that at all.
Very sensible.
Unlike me, as a seasoned numbers guy!!
I skilfully bought in on the decline to 64p, 2 days before the placing!!
However, happy to go in again at, now, sub 44p.
As you say, cash is king for any company. Or, lack of in AML position.
With you in principle Aqua.
However, disagree with your use of cash.
Aml's debt is an eye-scrunching £1.0b, now.
The placing was to keep the company going!!
Hence the ridiculous cost of borrowing at 12%, and the probability of debt factoring, which is bloody expensive. Like us borrowing on a credit card.
I'm still positive here, but this company is very finely balanced right now.
Risk is large.
Selecta6,
I’d be more worried by the debt if Stroll’s team had run the debt up, but he’s invested his money and associates money in spite of the debt.
It’s a waiting game, and I’ve averaged, my average, and averaged down again, the upside in both % & money terms is huge, but as they say ‘not for widows or orphans’.
Yes Aqua, but I agree with Selecta, am assuming the recent cash raise was to keep the lights on. 150m goes vey quickly these days unfortunately.
I did also use 25% profit margin for DBX at nearer the bottom of my original post, for the profit calculation, it will be great to know what the number is from the company though.
Come on AML any chance of doing the same rise as EUA as I missed that one.
Am sat in same boat as you Dunnie.
Sounds like not quite as deeply in. But, i'm up to my chest!!
Agree that Stroll knew what he was getting into. That was pre covid though.
He didn't call that one. It will hurt AML. Hence what may have been 2 year turn-round, is now probably 5.
Debt is rising fast. Very little income currently, money in is mainly borrowing!!!