focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Yes, I know it's not exactly recent but this piece from the FT published in 2008 outlining ONGC's bid for Imperial Energy may provide useful background. It's also worth mentioning that Peter Levine now controls President Energy. Although its focus is on Argentina, it also has assets in Paraguay. As does Amerisur. Something else to bear in mind is the premium to the market price offered by ONGC – some 62%.
https://www.ft.com/content/0538d902-733a-11dd-8a66-0000779fd18c
my tea leaves are telling me that will not be the case.
If ONGC are bidding for CPO-5, it will take months just to put a bid in, judging by their bureaucratic approach to everything else.
But that's OK by me if the price is a fair one.
If you do not this could continue for ever. I wonder what the highest price offered so far is?
to set a closing date, methinks.
Excellent find 50cc and thank you very much for posting. It certainly thickens the plot because now ONGC Videsh is set up both corporately and financially to make acquisitions as it sees fit. Therefore, if the other 30% of CP0-5 is to their liking then they could well be a very willing suitor.
By this I mean they would likely present the strongest opportunity to achieve the highest price for CP0-5 because of their knowledge of the block plus their size and thus willingness to pay what it takes.
Its a really interesting development.
On your point regarding delaying the interims it is important to remember that thus far only the date has been removed from the calendar and nothing else plus, they have to produce the interims anyway by the end of September so the work still has to be done and no doubt will be being done in parallel to the sale process.
Yes it is is important to be driving the sale process but until the dotted line is signed there is no guarantee that the sale will be completed and so thew show must go on and be managed in that manner.
Great find. Explains the jump on Friday.
Ongc taking on debt for possible investments...
https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/ongc-to-borrow-2-billion-through-unique-overseas-debt-programme
On further review, were Sol 1 outer limit drill IndX duster -really there to get ONGC - a map of the block and for them to understand their value !! at the expense of todays production and income - Or qualify - Out of their 70% cost effectively whilst destroying Amer Sp, Michinko is key in this as there is no critical mass of financial power to get this over the gain line , if GTE Geopark no equity options - OXY full etc etc - I now think ONGC want out and this is a ballroom of respect created by Giles to get them out. OXY no worries. HNY - Qucik GN
Time is the yardstick by which strategies are played. The decisions on IX Duster and Sol1 were made earlier - pre sale. Only and Idea. I thought ONGC were pushing us over a cliff with the last 2 drills, - NOW moment of clarity were they just checking the limit of their claims to GET OUT!!!!! No 2nd rig I took as a method to kill our ambitions and ONGC buy us cheap - -Pre Emp rights !! or is the opposite true, no second rig MEANS 70% OF CPO5 IS AFFORDABLE!! They want out sensible price ---Maybe I took TOO a defensive investment view & ONGC GROUP WERE TO BIG - If ONGC want OUT - look out Amer GTE Geopark could turn this into a monster and for their SP -THe delayed games ONGC did confuse me a tad with ANGER FFS
HNY GLA
Delaying the interim makes sense as is a lot of work and sure they have plenty to do at the moment. Simple matter of priorities.
Suggests that they will delay till month end - also that they think the sale process will conclude in sept too
They couldn't believe it not butter.
They slipped on some oil.
Leaves on line
Wrong kind of sunshine
CO2 content of atmosphere fluctuating
State of currency fluctuation on Planet Zog
I wonder how many of these we’ll get? Maybe (and hopefully!) none but the cynic in me decided to make an excuses bingo card. I’m sure you’ll have your own additions!
Rains
ONGC timetable outside our control
Only one rig in CPO5
Consulta previa all taking longer
Oxy preliminary assessment takes time (we’re working closely with them, blah, blah)
Local indigenous issues
Access delayed due to remapping terrain
Trucks to OBA held up due to technical or bureaucratic issues (on Colombian or Ecuadorean side)
Management focussed on sales process
Platanillo tech issues
Power outages
Cuddly toy
Electric teasmade
etc.
not scientific indeed but sufficient probability in current status. Yes they have imo more than likely sufficient offers that mean that the business is indeed being sold and that all their attention and focus is where it should be rightly placed and that is in completing the deal asap securing the best possible deal to reward them selves and long term shareholders that have stood by them. I have said it since day one and believe a share offer circa 40p to blow all others away. But could be less feel 32 is the minimum and well could be higher also. I shall wait patiently but feel not much longer to get a very healthy premium to todays current share price and amazed that more investors are not committing at this stage. GLA Thanks to all diligent researchers that shared info re interims and NH not attending the oil conference as speaker. All relevant I feel to very good news before mid September or end of sept latest .Definitely would not wish to be out as news could literally drop any day, especially if they believe any leak may occur prior to preferred news release date.
off. a. cliff.
https://twitter.com/AmerisurResourc
I would be careful assuming too much from the simple updating of the website.
The website was completely renovated recently and it may be that the date was incorrectly added during those works and through some form of investor communication it has come to their attention. I say that because it is interesting that the date has been pulled on the very day it was being discussed on a company forum, which itself may be down to an investor contacting the company.
Yes more sinister things are possible but it is just as likely that that is not the case as is.
Furthermore, the interim have to be released by 30th Sept and no offer even if recommended is going to achieve full close prior to the end of the month. In addition, all company information is available to all potential purchasers and so there is nothing in the interims that would be worthy of being held back.
So the 'pulling' of the interims is not necessary, highly unlikely, and we are likely dealing with an administrative issue rather than anything more sinister. However, as with all these things anything is possible in investing and the worst things ever less surprising.
If no acceptable offer on table then why pull interim's as all the information in them will already be available to potential bidders. My take is acceptable offer on table circa 25p - 35p and that sensitive information has been released so expect a recommended offer before the 8th Sept.
looking good at 18.50p
That could be really good news or really bad news. changing or removing financial results from the calendar is either they are bad, or that something else will be announced before they are due.
I am putting 2 and 2 together and hoping it means a bid for 35p is around the corner !! ;-) (that is not scientific, just hope!!)
Soap operatic. Sigh....
:-)
Just to clarify the 12th Sept Interims release date was stated on the company website under financial calendar. I know this because I checked it about 3 hours ago.
Having now checked again I see that it has been removed.
Can anyone shed light on these forms that keep getting lodged ?
Are they companies buying shares or selling ? I can’t make any sense of them at all ?
Thanks, Bazzaman, for the date 12 Sep on the interims (wherever you got it from!)
If management’s track record holds true, I suspect the interims will be a massive non-event. With a load of info missing on the key assets. There’ll be some “sit tight” message once again.
The thing I’ve pondered most on this in the last couple of weeks is what it takes to move the price permanently back to 12-13p. Even if bids are not forthcoming or too low, then surely this process has at least made clear that any price in the teens or lower would significantly undervalue the sum of the parts. So isn’t there something of a floor around this point? Assuming AMER soldiers on as an independent, at least we have Oxy and (yeah, I know, I know, they’re slow) ONGC holding the monkey wrenches on quite a lot of the gear. Unless everything comes up dry, value surely builds even without a takeover.
One assumes that if the deal doesn’t go through then Clarke and Harrison are toast which would at least be some cause for celebration. At least for me.
So many posters here are more informed and cleverer than me. Please educate me, team.
good find Stockable...heres the links
https://twitter.com/scottishoilclub
confirmed on the 19th August
https://mailchi.mp/scottishoilclub/scottish-oil-club-19-sep-london-nathan-piper-amerisur-750801
changed 4hrs ago
https://mailchi.mp/scottishoilclub/scottish-oil-club-19-sep-london-keith-hill-president-and-ceo-africa-oil