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Just - could be, but 25% of production on the field seems steep. What’s the 2019 liability I wonder?
Transport costs interesting too, not so long ago this was in the high teens when everything was being trucked
PP
Part might be the high price tariff: there were POO peaks in 2018.
I have always thought that OXY will be our purchaser and so my conclusion is that Put 8 as part of the deal, including operatorship, was another move in the game of chess.
As part of that game, I always felt sure that OXY were the preferred farm-in partner because of deep pockets and the ability to ultimately buy AMER out at the right price.
PUT 8 is an important block: according to JW it is the sweet spot, containing both light and heavy oil.
I’m with CD. I think they exceeded my very limited expectations with these results. Think you’ve lost the plot a bit JTD, the market reaction is effectively neutral.
ONGC are plainly not playing nice now, and AMER are essentially saying so in these results. Not being able to pin down a spud date for Indico 2 is purely down to ONGC not playing ball, I doubt there is any effective recourse AMER management have to drive the program. This is a lower commitment to drilling than they will have previously committed to AMER.
Put-8 will be on ice pending ANH approval of the farm out, that’s typically taken 6-8 bureaucratic months previously. Again not sure what they can do there.
They royalty barrels collection on Platanillo is the big driver for the results delta. Was this a liability in the FY18 books? Where was it? How come it’s quarter of a million barrels nearly, the x-factor on Plat is nil? Any insight on this? Not happy about transparency here.
The key word is competitive. That means competing bidders, and a prize at the end. It also implies a degree of competing offers in principle already worth talking about. From this point it’s just about patience, no one will be able to second guess the detail but it seems highly probable the process will conclude with a deal or deals.
It would appear that ONGC are dragging their feet on the Indico appraisal wells, for reasons which we all understand. However, I hope our management do not let this colour their judgement and let this asset go on the cheap. CPO 5 is where most of Amerisur's current value lies. If necessary, I would prefer we sold everything else and keep CPO5 for a further 12 months to ensure the full value is realised. A special dividend to shareholders to be followed by a final sale of CPO5 when appropriate would be better than seeing us sold short, even if this means prolonging the process a bit.
What I am not sure about is whether ONGC has any pre-emption rights (or did this lapse when they failed to take Amer's 30% when we originally bought). If they do have pre-emption rights this may deter alternative investors and leave us in a difficult position.
Margaret’s post at 9.35am is bang on, I think. Worth dwelling on for any shareholders who aren’t yet full on AMER (or haven’t yet bought).
They won’t be able to drill PUT-8 until they have farm out approval front ANH. The actual question should be does having operatorship add to or reduce the net asset value of the block. Personally I think it increases it under a sale process.
Was it the right move to exercise the first right of refusal on Put 8 in the sale of Vetra assets to GTE?
What we gained from it was operatorship.
What we lost was the energetic GTE program when they were going to push forward on existing plans with 2 wells
From a post at that time:
" that should be good for us. GTE now our partners immediately next door in Put-8.Plus Suroriente and one in the Llanos. $104m paid.
hTTp://resource.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/89768f9f-84a5-475b-b179-f62aa84814a1
"Gran Tierra believes PUT-8 contains at least two exciting drill-ready exploration prospects, which could potentially be drilled in 2019 using existing pads."
AMER had one planned for Q2 and now that looks as if it might be drilled before the end of H2 (as one of our 2 remaining wells) .
Sadly we are used at Amer to being let down and I try to visualize the SP reaction if we just sell the CPO and are left with the main Putumayo portfolio
got to disagree there 3putts
better to sell something highlighting all the key features - we all know we have a potential jewel on display yet AMER for some reason don't reveal it to its full potential.
you would also like a clearer understanding on numbers and strategy.
failure on both counts leads to a lower offer price,
Margaret365
I did consider it.
threeputt - No. no. no mate - you're way off the mark in your assessment as are so many today.
Operations matter, the sale may not go through and even if it does good progress strengthens the BoD hand and may get us a better price. It's crazy to slow down when we have a fantastic business proposition to progress. A presentation is to sell the virtues of the business and could include new entrants to the process, it also settles nerves of existing shareholder - we are not all 100% convinced the deal will go through, else the SP would be much higher.
I don't know who some of you are trying to convince on the BB, we can all read, all performance metrics are weaker than expected by the market has cut straight through the BS.
There's no excuse and the market has passed it's verdict on weak results this morning. The results were actually critical to me for a reasons you clearly have not even considered.
It's all about what the assets are worth now. Data room is open, prospective buyers will be drilling down into their assets and prospects, asking pertinent questions, and Amerisur staff will be answering them, been through all this myself from a company selling pov, I can promise you Amerisur admin staff and management will be extremely busy giving further information and answers to further questions.
Effectively the Data room is saying: Here are our assets, here are our prospects, what do you think we are worth asset individually or as a whole
Not sure why the need to do further presentations however at a late stage, surely buyers would have already made their mind up at that point, open to opinion on that one
agreed JTD.
its classic AMER - i could have written that. it is perfectly in keeping with previous RNS's and confirms the intuition to be extremely cautious.
there is so much one can read between the lines, its almost not worth doing it.
i guess we all have to remember that 75% of aim stocks are not worthy of your hard earned money. the market isn't regulated enough and too many dodging dealing / directors. add in firms who are not transparent and there you go.
why would they have not moved certain projects forward is beyond me. once thing is for certain it is not in the interest of the SHs.
Still at 24p Ross? amazed you haven’t taken the opportunity to reduce your target with the muted RNS today.
Malcy, always the friend of O&G management. They really have to go some before he will say anything even remotely sceptical.
Amerisur Resources
Amerisur has reported interims this morning and whilst they don’t tell us much that we don’t already know the title, ‘steady production growth and strong operating cash generation tells us as much as we need to know.
Production was 5,552 bopd in the half at $58.80/bbl but current production is 6,900 bopd and of course they are now carrying third party crude through the OBA. This means that the company should ‘reach or exceed’ the top end of its 5-6/- guidance which is another strong point. EBITDA of $19.2m is good with an increase in net cash of $18.5m giving ‘robust’ net cash of $46m.
These vey strong numbers will give the board the best possible negotiating stance when it meets potential suitors in Bogotá shortly. The strategic review continues with many expressions of interest but with these numbers and exploration success any sale of all or part of the business would have to add up to way more than the current price.
Did what any sensible investor should do on those results.
Dumped like a stone this morning (they really are not great results) & bought them all back under 17p (cause its all smoke & mirrors - the assets speak far louder than OUR BOD ability to extract cash from them)
So happy day & thanks for the free shares. Roll on the sale.
That’s because we won’t be doing it.
Yes they are doing all they can and they will get a good price for the assets. Nice to see we sell all the 3rd party oil to shell and pleased that is now ramping up in H2 as will add to the income all very good and 6900bopd currently of our own and that is without sol1. Can anyone explain why Sol1 is on such a long hold possible reasoning....or maybe I missed it. Pleased that they gave a tribute to the contribution Dana Coffield had given. Nice touch and in memory of his efforts I am sure they will be securing best price and for the family that probably still hold Amerisur shares. I still say the BOD are better deal makers than operators and the acquisitions are like unpolished gems. Very polished in the hands of another operator.
Production good, financials decent(ish) imho.. outright sale of the company to one bidder to be announced in October would be my guess...or at least a sale of the complete asset set across a few bidders (still in October).. but Amerisur will be gone soon enough imho.. very thankfully, as holding this has been an absolute pain for me for years now... and it will be for considerably more than 17p imho.. 30p ish wouldn't surprise me now.. If I wasn't already fully loaded - versus my max. per share allowable bet - on these I'd top up considerably here.
BOD have agreed to meetings with interested parties. They have had plenty of time to assess the confidential company information including what we have today. The parties are still interested and our BOD are willing to entertain them. To allow this progression I would suggest our BOD will have assessed the indicative intent to be worthwhile pursuing, and therefore more attractive than M&p offer they declined outright.
totally concur with your 18.24 post and that is why we shall see a hefty premium paid to todays current sp. Meanwhile back in Bogota. GC Order order could the honourable. interested parties please calm yourselves. Try not to be so excitable you will all get a chance. Behave yourselves.(Bercow style)
Interims as expected. Drilling campaign all but suspended. ONGC continue to drag their feet in fear of 'value realisation'.
Imo, House Sold Subject to Contract' not bothering to do the much needed double glazing and gas central heating. The next few weeks will be the easy bit, boredom being the only obstacle private investors have to overcome.
One thing for sure, those that are left are very stubborn holders not willing to sell on the cheap.
calco and sol are drills were to my knowledge necessitated in part to stay within the licencing agreements made with Columbian Govt. Where has all the money gone? To my knowledge the agreement with oxy re 108 million went they paid for the first 4 wells or so but I am sure we had to match them for seismic costs so presuming that has been well under way and has no doubt used some capital. plus calco and sol 1 drill.
As others have pointed out GC says FSP is competitive and I reckon it is very much so. ONGC want to pick up our 30% for a bargain. However a bigger operator can afford more to play a delaying tactic game as they not only know the eventual worth is more than likely substantial but also that ongc nor the Columbian govt can allow continuing snails pace development. ONGC are at the table but like GC says this is a competitive process and if they are in Bogota over the next few weeks then I reckon they have an idea of the bids already and this is to thrash out a final deal. I disagree with deal being announced after NOV and believe it could be anytime in second half of September. I still believe a potential bidder will come in with a knockout take it or leave it deal around 35-40p mark and certainly 40p if the business is carved up. But time and costs are everything plus bod deal incentives no doubt. I have no issues and will continue to build a big stake here. I would say will a deal be done is like asking is the Pope religious. No fire works or damp squibs. But would expect the sp to rise on this rns as seems obvious as another poster says this was the last interims they will produce and I am sure they are correct.
It's all about our the bolt on of our oil in the ground,assets and infrastructure. In capable hands it's some prize.