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We may have to decide to accept an offer before ever finding out if Indico and the other potentially blockbuster prospects on CPO-5 are indeed brimming in oil.
It's incredible that after years of p*ssing about in Plat with wells that mostly tend to produce a few hundred bpd we not have the prospect of multiple cheap to drill wells producing 5000bpd each (remember ONGC have the existing wells choked on a lower than possible production). I really don't think we need to fear a "No deal" scenario, it's only a matter of time until ONGC have to drill.
Only those that want a quick exit will be poorer in the long run, if we can't get the MINIMUM deal we should expect, IMO 27.5p is realistic, all bidders should be told to sod off or come back with better offers. I'm hoping for more, but anything less and I would feel cheated on top of the disappointment.
That's what lets GTE Geopark, Parex down, we have the Agility to discuss deal options if partners are willing. Most PE funds are about profit derived from breaking deadlock or market limitations, Amer are lucky our largest shareholder if willing can unlock deals. GLA especially when competitors are weak and partners want out. GLA GN
Unsecured lending - backed by a PE firm can lend when banks cannot through securitisation issues and covenant conditions, Amer no debt and a major shareholder with cash ready to make money - that has a history of supporting companies it likes - !!! Thinks me something what is going on GLA
Follow the same path that Parex failed on I repeat & repeat why would Michinko Do that Private Equity Firm !!!!!!!! Again - Copy During the process, Parex received multiple proposals for the purchase of the SoCa Assets. After a thorough evaluation and consideration of the submitted proposals, it was determined that none of the proposals reflected the value of the SoCa Assets and were not in the best interests of the Company and as such, the strategic repositioning review process has been terminated. -
Unless to take ONGC out Cheap and share it HNY GLA may take a while but the excuse of limited funds from 4 companies - can draw out negotiations but get a cheap deal. HNY
That's Life, that's what people say riding high in April, shot down in May !!!! Whats October got to offer.
Hit while your weak - ONGC delaying crucial news for AMer - are reliant on to buoy the SP etc borrowing now - this is an end game with ONGC as GTE Parex are committed to share buy backs and are weak FFS Strategic Repositioning Review Process 2018 Parex
conducted an extensive public strategic repositioning review process, focussed on a broad, global marketing process to solicit interest in the sale of the Company's long life assets (LLA-32, LLA-34 and Cabrestero), the retention of the Company's exploration assets, the return of the net sale proceeds to shareholders and the Company continuing as an exploration driven, Colombian focused junior oil company. The strategic repositioning review process was also receptive to any expressions of interest in a potential corporate sale or other strategic transaction that would result in the creation of additional value for shareholders. During the process, Parex received multiple proposals for the purchase of the SoCa Assets. After a thorough evaluation and consideration of the submitted proposals, it was determined that none of the proposals reflected the value of the SoCa Assets and were not in the best interests of the Company and as such, the strategic repositioning review process has been terminated. -
Hence Strategy Amer V ONGC - Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near. - Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him - Feign Disorder That is when GTE Geopark Parex are on share buy backs and out of the game - FFS a combination of weakness presents a counter opportunity - IF JOINTLY done IMO ONGC want out. We'll see Baysil
Strategic Repositioning Review Process
Beginning on July 17, 2018, the Company, with the assistance of its external financial advisor Scotia Capital Inc., conducted an extensive public strategic repositioning review process, focussed on a broad, global marketing process to solicit interest in the sale of the Company's long life Southern Casanare ("SoCa Assets") assets (LLA-32, LLA-34 and Cabrestero), the retention of the Company's exploration assets, the return of the net sale proceeds to shareholders and the Company continuing as an exploration driven, Colombian focused junior oil company. The strategic repositioning review process was also receptive to any expressions of interest in a potential corporate sale or other strategic transaction that would result in the creation of additional value for shareholders. During the process, Parex received multiple proposals for the purchase of the SoCa Assets. After a thorough evaluation and consideration of the submitted proposals, it was determined that none of the proposals reflected the value of the SoCa Assets and were not in the best interests of the Company and as such, the strategic repositioning review process has be
I imagine there was no financial or legal barrier to entering the data room beyond being (a) vaguely credible as a buyer; (b) happy to become an insider; (c) happy to sign an NDA; and (d) curiously interested in an odd Colombian upstreamer with no debt and a pile of shareholders who think that the current exec management team is named Bert, Ernie and the Cookiemonster.
With that in mind, having numerous interested parties is not necessarily going to lead to numerous bids.
That said, of course the market cap at 17p significantly undervalues the sum of the parts. I just wanted a quick trip to Reality Checkpoint (Parker’s Piece).
Just sayin’....
As per jtd response to my earlier post (thanks jtd), there are plenty of potential suitors out there. This will take time, esp., as I suspect, will involve a cash/share offer.
We already have offers and interested parties, so a question of finding the right price. I also think the joint process of Amer and Ironveld suggests either GC or Michinoko want out and hence will be some end result, rather than like Parex.
Btw I'm surprised there has not yet been a manipulation down to 16 yet - to catch stops. When this happens we'll be close to news
I still think that the assets and interested parties are such that will be in the region of 400-600m usd
Good post Rhodi, would be staggered if it goes for under 30p, and that would probably prove to be a bargain in the end for their share of CPO-5 alone.
Many that expect quick news would be correct wanting it this quick if a) we were a distressed seller and b) if we had only one interested party. However we have multiple interested parties and we will be getting the best possible deal. That takes time ladies and gentleman and if we had any bad news we would not be opening up our books for all our competitors to see. No problems and I still see a buyout above 30p. Come on guys be reasonable they are not negotiating a contract for 10km of new road. Lets all get this into perspective. Patience will be rewarded and the longer it goes up to end of September then the better the deal imo. Patience please gentleman.... off topic but thank goodness Bercow is going imo. Patience Patience.....be good fellows and restrain yourselves.
“Begin with a 9”
-90p?
Tell , what the point be of telling porkies to keep the price up if there is nothing to report? It's not as if they are awaiting a drill result of which they are confident will boost the SP. I don't buy that scenario. I am pretty fearful of the SP should there be no sale mind , I would suspect it to begin with a 9 pretty quickly. It would seem they have downed tools whilst all this is going on which is very unsettling should we be stuck with this lot. I am not brimming with confidence at all.
Same thought has crossed my mind too. However would be, and is, sure fire way to encourage ongc to drag their feet even more. Also means releasing a lot of sensitive data to competitors.
Hoping we get indico2 spud news on Thurs.
Thurs 7am - tommy.
i am going to say what is on my mind - which is usually wrong. what IF the FSP is just a ploy to hold up the SP for a while?
Are we due the interims tomorrow ?
do NOT ever mention the unutterable name.
Article today indicating that GTE are accelerating their share buyback - maybe explains rise.
As ever the lack of news here is killing confidence, I don't point these things out as often now as it seems to offend some to hear the truth - they'd sooner wait to get stitched up than challenge any BoD and hold them accountable, reminiscent of the adoration of K Foo here despite their many failures we have to pretend they're a great bunch.
up 20% !!!!!!!!!!!
we are 1 trading day from a major update in the middle of a deal - and our SP is languishing!
Are those trades the magical 1-2 punch trades we have been waiting for ???
50cc - I have a few thoughts on Parex, they wanted to test to see what they could get for their flagship operation in Colombia as interest in assets has surged, they are non-operator of Llanos 34 but largest shareholder if I recall. Their SP like Amerisur's has underperformed , not as badly as Amerisur though, very little has, and I had assumed they just wanted to realise value for shareholders before anything bad happened as they have other operations to focus on.
With Geo Park as partner to Parex I suspected they could be a buyer or partial buyer along with ONGC or Ecopetrol, both of whom they have relationships with. The recent purchase of practically all the other surrounding blocks around CPO-5 and Llanos 34 caused me to suspect the 3 firms or a combination of them could come to a deal to carve up Amerisurs Llanos asset and Parex's share of L34 to leave a strong and very profitable production set-up and hugely attractive land base. All sorts of possibilities spring to mind, even an outsider thwarting the lot of them - then again it could all amount to nothing
The attraction and value to all parties is obvious just consider the other operators e.g. Frontera Energy's huge success on wells that don't come anywhere close to the potential that Mariposa-1 and Indico-1, they are the biggest independent operator in S America based on their Llanos production. Hence my previous speculation that ONGC, rather than buy Amerisur's share could even relinquish some of their share of CPO-5 to gain a share of L34 and surrounding blocks. IMO Geo Park could easily end up with a share in everything and operatorship as they are the trail blazer company in terms of fast development and cost control. Best sector performer on the US stock exchange doesn't go to laggards, the laggard prizes go to companies like Amerisur, hence our predicament.
But, for now it's all worthless speculation, like speculating on the sale price to stave off boredom - the bidders our fate and it will be decided based on perceived prospects/what they can get away with IMO not current face value. With 1 bidder we're back to the 17p base, in competition the sky's the limit, maybe that's stretching it a little.
Doing a bit of research and came across the link below re Parex process last year. Appears they were looking to flog some of their Llanos assets (including 34) but didn't get any acceptable bids. Might just have been the sheer scale or the price they wanted was too high. Their process took 6 months.
Anyone have more insights on their process?
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/12/18/1669154/0/en/Parex-Concludes-Strategic-Repositioning-Process-and-Announces-Operational-Update-and-Go-Forward-Business-Plan.html
Not much going on while we wait for the interims, so I'll give it a go re the sale price. I think we'll not get news until end of Sept. possibly even into October if there are many competing bids
The Stifel breakdown shared and explained elsewhere on this board provides a good starting point. They have $275m usd for current 1P proven resources, OBA, Oxy commitments and cash in bank. This is based on 1P boe equivalent of $8-9usd. Think this is a fair starting point. Chuck in $120m usd for the Putamayo stuff based on previous Oxy farm outs, then just a case of trying to price the CP05 upside. I'd say conservatively $75-100m.
That comes to around $500m usd or 33p per share. Could obviously go a lot higher if competitive bids. Can't see it going for less than 30p and we could possibly end up with a pleasant surprise higher.
Welcome to Bollywood, baby!
Agree that the show must go on, but what we have been served up is a continued series of matinees with no-shows by the star turns...….for all their much vaunted skills, CPO -5 is the jewel over which we have no control, and we cant influence time of the show, who's in it, whether it get postponed , or any aspect of it.
Well it has now been 6 weeks since the operational update, which is smack in the middle of the average time taken between the last 3 drills.
Whilst the information with which to compare is limited, one would imagine that it would spud any day now.
Perhaps we will learn more during the various interim reports and interviews. The show must after all go on until such time the curtain finally comes down.