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Highlights of the week
" We need that Ruvuma income to restart operations at Kiliwani or find a partner that will fund it for us - but even then AEX will no longer be an operator of anything and that will be a very sad day - not only will we have become the next WEN but we will then become the next SOLO.... and look what happened to that." 1. CrustyPete
The Kiliwani 3D seismic was terminated by Orca Energy Group and without this, Kiliwani is dead in the water.
It is rather perplexing that one would want to purchase this stock. It is also rather perplexing that this company still even exists. The only remaining useful function it still has is its ability to siphon more cash from the gullible via a capital raise.
re: pipeline
" Possible solution would be for the company to advance a loan to enable it to happen sooner rather than later. Have been waiting 15 years for Aminex to succeed - how much longer?" 1. foraye
Aminex is financially destitute and can't afford a pot to pee in let alone advance a loan for the pipeline.
"Sell peeps, write this dog off. I did and it hurt at the time but I moved on to better investments. this is foobar.. just watch. " 1. commercia
= = = = = = = = =
The 'True/False' quiz with some added clarity..... continued from last week.
Here are the answers:
21) Geologic features of Ruvuma are identical to Mnazi Bay
False
Totally different.
22) All issues here are always easily and quickly resolved.
False
The issues are resolved at the same speed of a slug.
23) World gas prices have a strong bearing on local gas prices.
False
The local gas prices are contracted.
24) There are several levels of Government bureaucracy to deal with.
True
Each level has the potential to stall all progress.
25) Natural gas is more environmentally friendly than coal.
True but ..
Masdar's planned 2 000MW of Power using renewable and the anticipated 2 115 MW of Power from Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project (JNHPP) will both have a lower carbon footprint.
= = = = = = = =
Beware of the rampers .....
" Will you walk into my parlor? said the Spider to the Fly.
Tis the prettiest little parlor that ever you did spy."
1. Mary Howitt ... The Spider and the Fly
Encourage the takeover of Aminex. Follow Wentworth's path and be satisfied with a 30% premium to market.
Aahh..the unmistaken smell of burning sulphur..
development license to come from TZ authorities then lift off...that's all you need to know...
Ah, the sweet nonsense of the recently appointed chair of the fluttering fairy sub-set.
Highlights of the week
" .... Monetising those assets is so distant a prospect that is has next to no material value" 1. CrustyPete
The contingent gas isn't worth a brass farthing.
" Things are moving - but this is still a long way off being in the bag from my POV." 1 hardnose
Mais oui
" The condensate is going to be a massive earner and provide substantial additional revenue" 1 sharehead.
The above text contains misleading information of the type that our beloved Tanz so often encounters and trusts. Professor RoJo, please help to shield Tanz from this type of misleading nonsense.
GSA ... G stands for 'Gas' not 'Condensate' as in 'Gas Sales Agreement'. Gas is sold and only gas.
TPDC owns the 'Condensate'. Orca Energy Group and M&P/WEN can attest to that.
= = = = = = = = =
The completion of the pipeline has been delayed yet again by another six months, and even this new deadline is uncertain. TPDC has used its right of first refusal to acquire part of WEN, indicating its intentions. If Aminex faces another setback, it will have to beg desperately for help. A possible scenario is that TPDC would be interested in some sort of agreement with Aminex. The current President could gain a political edge in the 2025 election by helping TPDC absorb a portion of Aminex. This move would appeal to many TZ voters.
Nt-2 still hasn't completed an extended well test. Chikumbi-1 needs to come in as a BIG outlier success and that is what TPDC is waiting for.
A pipeline contractor who accepts TZ Shillings will be hard to find. Moreover, why would TPDC fund the pipeline before drilling of CH-1 is completed? And why would ARA/APT drill CH-1 without a Development License in place?
US Dollars are indeed scarce in Tanzania. Consider Orca Energy Group that earned a minimal profit in Q3, even though it produced 121 MMscf/d. This would be on par for Aminex having Ruvuma's production at 484 MMscf/d.
" ... The Company has requested assistance from TPDC and the Bank of Tanzania in sourcing USD for the 2024 capital plan ... " 1. Orca Energy Group
The pipeline's repeated delays could cause a huge increase in the need for more funding. This US$ and Shilling debacle is far from over. This obese company has over a staggering 5 billion shares outstanding. The previous raise was at 0.75 p. The next capital raise would likely be at a lower price... in my humble opinion.
= = = = = = = =
Beware the plethora of rampers ..... rely on your own due diligence.
" The bitter and the sweet come from the outside, the hard from within, from one's own efforts." 1. Albert Einstein
Follow Wentworth's path. Accept a takeover offer and enjoy a 30% premium to market.
Careful if you read this posters de-ramping posts.
Previously they continued to post week after week "The odds are in favor (yes they spelt it wrong)of isolated small stratigraphic traps .. jmho."
Wrong, wrong wrong as per the 3D results published last week, makes you wonder what else they are so expertly be wrong about?
The 3D dataset has also revealed, for the first time, considerable undrilled exploration potential within the broader licence area. Multiple undrilled structural and stratigraphic plays spanning a range of geological intervals are estimated by APT to contain a total Pmean unrisked GIIP potential of 8.43 Tcf (excluding Ntorya). These new plays and prospectivity currently identified to date contain a risked Pmean GIIP exploration potential of ca 2.2 Tcf. Ongoing work, including advanced seismic imaging and reinterpretation of existing wells, is being undertaken to reduce geological uncertainty and mature the new exploration portfolio. The new volumetric studies result in a total updated unrisked GIIP volume for the Mtwara Licence of 16.38 Tcf.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AEX/ruvuma-seismic-update-onc65upi3b8jp5q.html
The aminex ship is stranded on the rocks. What a debacle.
"Wrong Wrong Wrong "
Yes Cperkin, but he doesn't give a dam about being Wrong, as long as his (pea brain) believes that he can influence the (would be investor) or the uninitiated. Lol, so sad, I do not bother to read his posts, they are uneducated and do not hold water, and mean nothing.
But the sad, nay, alarming, thing is, he knows full well, he's trying to affect the market by (deceptive wording), not a true character.
But Hay ho, in these days of market trading (short-termism) we have become accustomed to their unrestrained greedy antics.
There seems to be no consciousness of their behavioural affect on others, greed is their only master. Sad sad narcissistic individuals.
Highlights of the week
" Do we all agree, there's only ONE Winner ?" Tanzania
Only one winner? How many shareholders are competing for this single prize
The past 15 years have seen many grappling with missed opportunities, prompting reflection on the path not taken.
" .... .greed is the major issue here...the government wants to keep changing the rules of engagement.I have said this before...we will not get our development licence until the LNG partners either get their licence or simply walk away ..... " 1. Alcapone1
" Several years ago when Magafuli was at the helm Shell walked away from negotiations saying they would only return after the licences for the onshore operators were issued." 1. Stret67
This makes sense.
" Believe me BG - they haven't got two shillings to rub together." 1. RoJo
True.
" I wouldn't be surprised Crusty if the TPDC are instergating their back-in rights to become part of the joint venture going forward." 1 blackgold00
This will never happen, but they'll still get their piece of cake and eat it too.
For nearly two decades .....
" TPDC has the right under the PSA to โback inโ to the Songo Songo field development and convert this into a carried working interest in the PSA ... TPDC has not contributed towards any costs" 1. Orca Energy Group.
= = = = = = = =
What is the status of the supposed affordable solution for the Kiliwani-1 North problem that would allow production to resume?
Answer: First, you must address the poverty affecting Aminex.
Would it be difficult to find a pipeline contractor who is willing to take TZ Shillings?
Answer: Nigh to impossible.
TPDC aspires to be the leading National Oil & Gas Company. Aminex is on the brink of financial distress, a situation that TPDC would find advantageous. Applying pressure on Aminex would not be challenging. A single additional delay could cause this entire structure to unravel.
Scratch out Scirocco and Wentworth so far. Aminex is the next in line.
= = = = = = = = =
Beware the rampers.
"O, what a goodly outside falsehood hath" 1. Shakespear.
Follow Wentworth's example and agree to be acquired for a price that is 30% above market.
Highlights of the week
"Approximately 68 per cent of Tanzania's 61.1 million citizens live below the poverty line of $1.25 a day. 32 per cent of the population are malnourished".
Investors are often misled into believing that they will become wealthy, despite poverty being a significant issue in Tanzania.
Regulations may change midstream, agreements may be altered or voided, payment may be delayed or disputed, payment may be in TZ Shillings, a VAT is added, corporate tax, additional profits tax, profit gas payment, Regulatory payments, halted payments, a deliberate stalling may be part of the plan. ... no, it is not easy operating in TZ. And it is especially difficult if you happen to be a disposable proxy of another firm.
Each day will present a challenge for Aminex. The endeavor to earn a dollar will be a constant battle, especially for a company considered a foreign insurgent.
" I fear they'll be hung out to dry, receiving peanuts at best." 1. RoJo
You have to applaud the foresight!
" Prepared to be shot down here guys, ,but would it be sensible for Aminex to capital raise to buy out scirocco for the future ruvuma payments." 1. Baramara
It would be more sensible for Aminex to capital raise in order to save itself. Aminex emulates the 'Hope, Float, Bloat' model.
= = = = = = = = =
re: CH-1
A discovery does not guarantee development, and even if development occurs, the timing remains uncertain.
re: timing events
'We must wait for the GSA signal, and it will blast out of here'... this had no impact.
'We must wait for the seismic release, and it will blast out of here' ... this had little impact.
'We must wait for the development license, and it will blast out of here '... this won't have an impact.
There is no certainty as to the timing of the development except for one certainty... expect another delay.
re: Condensate
Please provide evidence that the proceeds of any 'condensate' is forwarded to Aminex. Orca Energy Group / M&P produce volumes of condensate and ALL of the proceeds go to TPDC.
re Pipeline
"Tanzanian authorities have indicated that the spur line will be completed during the first half of 2025."
Can Aminex survive this long? Aminex has a negative Working Capital. This carcass is already eviscerated. Without another placement, a single additional delay could cause this entire structure to collapse. As the 2025 election approaches, dare not to anticipate that this foreign insurgent will gain an upper hand over TPDC.ย
With each passing day, the skeletal framework of Aminex is becoming increasingly frail.
It is evident that Aminex is facing a significant problem.
Be cautious of the aggressive bs rampers. They claim to have all the solutions.
" It isn't that they can't see the solution. It is that they can't see the problem." 1. G.K. Chesterton.
Follow Wentworth's route and agree to be acquired at 30% above market.
In answer to the last point - AEX have previous received loans from ARA and the possibility exists that this will happen again. For a long time now AEX's fate has rested on the value it has to ARA and as long as that value value exists - they'll keep it alive.
There's never been any value imputed for condensate for AEX valuations, so even if TPDC keep all of it - won't make any difference. But condensate that TZ is not producing is income foregone to them - makes any delay even more crazy.
Please God, give me strength
It's not strength you need BG !
Oh yes I do rojo, do you realise the the CH-1 well could be proving up an additional ( 4 TCF of gas ). Yes just got to sit tight, and put up with you lot. Lol ๐
Not long now though
Seismic RNS
"Furthermore, the new 3D seismic images a possibly even larger area of gas charged reservoir sandstones, beyond the high confidence area established by the new seismic inversion modelling. This provides for potential additional prospective gas volumes associated with the Cretaceous age sand units tested in NT-1 and NT-2 (Units 1 and 2) and for the possible existence of an as yet undrilled shallower sand unit (Unit 3), to be tested by the forthcoming Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) appraisal well later in the year. An upside aggregated GIIP volume for the Ntorya accumulation based on a success case in multiple stacked sands at CH-1, is estimated by APT to be up to 7.95 Tcf (approximated to a mean unrisked P10 GIIP)."
So after the CH-1 well, we could be talking 8 TCF of GIIP.
Please God, give me strength !
No way, you haven't got his ear
Highlights of the week
"For a long time now AEX's fate has rested on the value it has to ARA and as long as that value value exists - they'll keep it alive.`1. SQ320
Aminex has been in the ' Progressive-Care Unit' for an extended period of time. ARA will keep it alive for now but one must not forget about TPDC. TPDC`s ambition is to split into two parts, the NewCo listed Oil & Gas part and the Regulatory part. If TPDC`s NewCo Oil and Gas part manages to mop up Aminex, that would be viewed as being quite beneficial to both TZ and ARA. The current President could gain a political edge in the 2025 election by helping TPDC displace this foreign insurgent Aminex. This political maneuver would appeal to many TZ voters.
"Again lots of positive words but so little action. Why do authorities promise something "very soon" then don't do it - doesn't sadly boost confidence in what they say versus what they do - and still we wait".1. Northern Magic
as evidenced by ....
" ... that a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year." Feb 5, 2018 RPS CPR
Ntorya -3 = CH-1. Six years waiting and counting.
" I could go along with your trading range especially now we are aware of the level of condensate tuat is to come with it..1. RogerJolly
More material for the next 'silly list'. Beware of the never- ending misleading information.
Repeat:
Please provide evidence that the proceeds of any 'condensate' is forwarded to Aminex. Orca Energy Group / M&P produce volumes of condensate and ALL of the proceeds go to TPDC.
"Please God, give me strength" 1. RoJo
re: The God particle aka the 'Higgs Boson Particle'
The severe challenges faced by Aminex are comparable to the complexity involved in discovering the 'Higgs Boson Particle', despite Aminex not needing a 'Large Hadron Collider'.
= = = = = = = =
Aminex has divested the Ruvuma operator status and it has as good as lost its Kiliwani operator status. It is very much beginning to resemble Scirocco. Learn to be skeptical of their references to 'soon' or 'imminent' wordings. Any professional manager who placed a wager here is likely seeking new employment.
Beware the bs ramper whose shadow walks this stage. Know that Aminex can throw you some nasty curveballs when you think you have got it all figured out.
Dante's 'Nine Circles of Hell' should be expanded to 'Ten Circles of Hell'. The tenth circle would hold the generation long suffering Aminex shareholder.
As evidenced by ....
" ... that a gas development project at Ntorya could be viable with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and a third (Ntorya-3) is scheduled for drilling this year." Feb 5, 2018 RPS CPR"
"Ntorya -3 = CH-1. Six years waiting and counting"
Well it's a good job they didn't, because it wouldn't had been drilled in the most advantages location, the new site that has now been identified by the new 3D seismic results has given much more certainty and is targeting potentially an additional ( 4 TCF of gas ) i guess that slipped your notice Pros, yes, all eyes are going to be on the CH-1 well. Not long now ๐
So if the CH-1 drill is successful, we could be looking at 8 TCF of gas for the Ntorya accumulation. Gosh the mind boggles, you couldn't make it up. Lol ๐
So, with Aminex's 25% that's 2 TCF attributed to Aminex. Oh and then with the development licence inplace then all that resource, can be converted to ( 1P and 2P reserves) what do you make of that then Pros ?
Dante's 'Nine Circles of Hell' should be expanded to 'Ten Circles of Hell'. The tenth circle would hold the generation long suffering Aminex shareholder.
Some people do like putting people into categories. I'm no expert on Stylometry though, I'm in the cut and paste subset.
Yes Tom, and you're clearly in the correct sub-set as you are getting very good at it.
Keep it up !
Highlights of the week
" Aminex is a well-run business" optrade
Aminex has no say or sway over anything. There is nothing to run.
" sitting on huge reserves " optrade
Contingent reserves aren't worth a wooden nickel.
"and having enough funds until expected cash flow receipts from sales of Ruvuma gas." optrade
Aminex currently has a negative working capital. In Q3, Orca Energy Group at 121 MMscf/d, earned $0.01/sh because of payment in TZ Shilling. That's what you can look forward to.
= = = = = = =.
The delays keep coming and the belief that the risk has subsided here lacks foundation. Some might contend that ARA will rescue the situation by providing the essential funding to avert a financial collapse of Aminex. While this may be true, there does also exist the possibility that a subsidiary of TPDC may abscond with the remnants of Aminex. ARA would not take offense to that, provided that the subsidiary is listed as a public company.
For Aminex to be of any lasting significance, it must continue to be a vital 'operator'. The complete development of Kiliwani is estimated to cost approximately US $140 million. Consequently, the odds of Aminex retaining the 'operator' status of Kiliwani is quite slim.
itโs common for companies to face significant challenges when they lose a crucial status or position. The loss of its 'operator' status will be an extremely difficult event for Aminex to overcome.
" Our sun is one of 100 billion stars in our galaxy. Our galaxy is one of billions of galaxies populating the universe. It would be the height of presumption to think that we are the only living things in that enormous immensity" 1. Carl Sagan
In a parallel universe, Aminex might retain its 'operator' status. That storyline appears extremely unlikely here.