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by this time next year the Chikumbi-1 well will hopefully have been spudded and be making some progress.
Atb,
Northern
Let's hope so ...fingers crossed
Anyone expecting update by end September? Eitherway on 3d
Hope so.. The new energy minister sounds keen to get on with things. Hope our approval paperwork is at top of pile!
Alcapone1, yes, and so is Aminex.
Just been looking at WEN s results and saw this
·" Wentworth's share of Gross 2P Reserves as at 31 December 2020 estimated by RPS to be 90.8 Bcf with a post-tax NPV10 of $116.6 million"
and wondered if/when they do get CH-1 drilled and assuming it proves up ("a mean risked recoverable gas resource of 1,990 Bcf ") and put into production, what then would Aminex's Gross 2P Reserves be estimated at and what would the NPV10 be calculated at ?
Very interesting valuation point, Blackgold.
So based on the reasons given in my recent post and including rounding up and being optimistic, Aminex have 1TCF after next drilling. If Wentworth give a Net Present Value of $116m to 90.8 BCF then that makes Aminex' share over a $1bn.
Obvious caveats apply. Wentworth is in production. They are talking formal reserves and I am talking estimates. Etc.
But as an illustration of what Aminex have it is very useful.
Shares in issue are 3.9bn (call it 4bn). A value of $1bn on the asset is 25 cents a share. Convert to sterling.
It is an obvious point and I probably don't need to say it. But.
Lets say my rounding up and optimism is way out. And Aminex have half of what I think they might have. So 500BCf not 1 TCF.
The valuation based on Wentworth's NPV halves. To 12.5 cents per share.
(Actually I think Aminex will ultimately have much more gas than 1TCF. I think Ruvuma is a world class and enormous field that will be proved up. But I am trying to keep a lid on it for rational valuation purposes!)
Yes indeed Edgar and the figure for contingent reserves will be very different from the estimated recoverable reserves and the value of that, of course, on what we get paid for that gas; which will depend on the terms of the GSA and that, in turn, on who builds and owns the pipeline - amongst other things.
And as the current Wentworth price indicates whatever that value it does not necessarily translate into the market cap.
But hey, whatever the figure it surely will be a lot more than it is now ;-)
Ah yes, just realized Wen reserves estimates are 2P not 1P
"2P reserves are the total of proven and probable reserves. Proved reserves are likely to be recovered, whereas probable reserves are less likely to be recovered than proved reserves. The sum of proved and probable reserves is represented by 2P."
What is the difference between 1P and 2P reserves?
"1P reserves" = proven reserves (both proved developed reserves + proved undeveloped reserves). "
2P reserves" = 1P (proven reserves) + probable reserves, hence "proved AND probable."
"management estimates suggest a mean risked gas in place ("GIIP") for the Ntorya accumulation of 3,024 Bcf, in multiple lobes to be tested and a mean risked recoverable gas resource of 1,990 Bcf, which will be appraised by the planned seismic and drilling programm"
so once proved up by seismic and CH-1 and put into production and assuming the same GSA terms as WEN, then Aminex could have 1P reserves of 500 Bcf, or 5 x the amount of WEN, (their 2P estimates notwithstanding ) so 5x their NPV10 of $116.6 million ? = ($583) hmm, i would say there is defiantly some upside to Aminex's valuation, compared to the current market cap of £22m : )
Yes, I'm cheered up and thanks to you Edgar, the one voice that we all now respect and follow on this forum.
err...?
Don't include me Tanz.
UWE has been praising this share ever since it was 10p. Look what happened...!
How's the bingo in the Bedford Hill social club?
looks to be heading up with some large buys today - perhaps an update next week driving the price. Seismic booked?
Should be 3p minimum, but I am invested for the long haul as Tanz is a gas rich area and some mammoth finds have been made. Trust ARA to do the business and monetise the project. I just wonder if they will buy Scirocco's share or will Scir wait for seismic data in negotiate a better a deal.
You may well of course be right MaverickD, after all time is passing and end of September is nearly upon us, so if you keep saying the same thing endlessly you will surely be right eventually.
However don't count your chickens MD, your similar optimism of two weeks ago proved totally unfounded; let's just hope that the same is not true on this occasion.
In ortum
the thing is Crusty, there are those among us who's glass is always half full and those who's glass is half empty, and no doubt they're both right half the time. : )
The glass half empty brigade will have been on the higher side of that equation for about the last 5 years methinks BG ;0)
yes Crusty agree, but hopefully, that will balance out soon enough : )
The difference being that I once managed to sell at 4.5p and again at 6.5p about 5 years ago, so just a case of not really caring, as I know that pending the resources being proved up we could well see the teens here. With ARA on board and a new regime in power in Tanzania it looks good getting the gas to market!
Crusty are you just a little bitter? Or have your money stuck here? Just a suggestion sell up, move on and move to Crypto - XRP and XLM could well make you your money. Plus side is that Paypal now allow you to buy Crypto, so expect a lot more retail buyers to join the market.
I certainly hope that is the case BG..... fingers crossed! ;-)
Like you MaverickD I also believe there is the potential for this to be in the teens but politics in Tanzania is such that its difficult to realise that potential. ARA has been on board for a while and still no movement. If I remember correctly didn't the Chinese build the pipeline for the expected gas years ago. Like Crusty I've been here for years with £40k held up, fortunately at just over a 1p, so I may do OK in due course but I never thought for one minute we would be where we are after 5 or 6 years.
Kempey this is true, but regardless of potential I tend to take 50% out when I see the sp move up and double my entry point. You too must have seen 7.5p like me, but by then I was all out. I started buying back when we went sub 2p and added aggressively sub 1p. The potential has always been there, but ARA joining and then leading gives me supreme confidence that we will see the SP appreciate as and when we hit milestones.
Fair enough messrs Maverick and Kempey, we now know you are HTGT sorts relying on us LTH's plodding along but please guys, stay away in the shadows rather than telling us about how many gains you've made hither and thither off the back of us dumb clucks ! For those in it for the long run, quite a rise today on no news but expect Mav and Kemp to trade those gains away.
MaverickD, .. generally a safe and sound investment tactic to take 50% out on a 100% rise but I'm glad i haven't used that tactic on some of my investments. I didn't take 50% out of my GGP shares bought at just over 1p. and now I'm sitting on a small fortune. Given its a unique investment I should do well over the next 5 years, so you lose some and you win some. Yes, I saw the share hit 7.5p I remember it well because I've got a lot of them and at the time it covered losses on other shares and on paper left me well in profit. Thought I take 50% at 10p which, I really believed on the size of the resource, was going to be achieved. I'm sure we've all been there. I do believe Tanzania will come to its senses and permissions etc given for companies to progress. At the moment potential investors are reluctant to invest in Tanzania because of its track record.