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Probably more who appreciate your input than vice versa; even so, I don't think it's you per se..maybe the fact you're opinionated, possibly. Case in point your arguments with spacetomato hahaha
Only been trading a year, but I learn quick.
I should stress, however, that I enjoy your posts and always take note.
I think Rum you might be referring to HE1 and the "argument "was his insistence that only fundamental research can win the day. Unfortunately for all involved (in HE1) that simply highlighted that no system is fool proof and only, ever, ever bet what you can afford to lose.
Wyn - getting out before results is also a system or strategy isn't it, otherwise also known as de-risking? I'm sure many at HE1 would have executed it and did quite well out of it. Those who didn't, probably paid too much heed to noise and got sucked in by DM's overly bullish commentary during the drill. That's probably where intuition/gut instinct/experience comes into play.
I don't think we will get that type of commentary with ADV though. Different kind of situation, but also, a different type of man at the helm in LP, who I don't think will engage in the glass raising muddy antics of DM.
Bit of activity around the rig. Possibly two tugs there (at least one tug the Pacific Valour). Could be the first Skua makeover has completed and now moving to the second makeover or it could be on the way.
Hi Wolfie,
absolutely getting out with a profit and de-risking prior to news is a perfectly sound, reasonable and good strategy, but I think what propels people most is fear and greed, and given in the example we are discussing, all the background (fundamental) news, ( not the BB BS), suggested an SP of 2-3 times the then current price prior to the news that was coming and it was an absolute slam dunk the news would be good.
(pretty much exactly what is being said here co-incidently)
I imagine therefore that many more got caught than did the de-risking you refer to.
Buts that's experience. (Its one of the reason I have my system, Take the profits here and there , sure you can miss the "big" multi bagger, but it always takes longer than forecast and it rarely comes off, so i work on the basis that I would rather make 5% in a week than a 100% in a year.
But its absolutely each to his/her own and what works for them. Nothing is remotely fool proof but there are basic tenet's of any system anyone uses: two of the most valuable in my book:
Never bet more than you can afford to lose
Protect your capital
ATB
I saw a map somewhere and both skua (10 & 11) workovers were at the same locations?
A supply ship and possible a tug heading to Volaris.
'not the BB BS'.
Careful Wyndrum I got my hair singed for daring to mention there was such a thing;-)
Took me a bit of getting used to that the unrealistic sentiment side of things can perhaps be the biggest driver of a stocks share price (social media, BB's etc) and that fundamentals can be second best for many inexperienced PI's investing in stocks (been there). I think that is where your charting comes in handy.
@Milcait, yes cheers for that. The rig dropped off my map at the same time that a tug/supply ship was moving away from its last location on a heading towards Buffalo. The rig has now reappeared and hasn't moved from Skua! The tug is the one I mentioned which has been servicing Skua and left Darwin a day ago arriving on location at the rig yesterday (UK time). Don't know if it will be contracted to do the tow to Buffalo. I'll keep the occasional eye out anyway just because for some strange reason it's interesting to watch things going on thousands of miles away in real time.
ST by accident I dropped on the Valour in Darwin port and followed it out a day ago as it reached Skua.
i won't be top slicing here, although i have done so elsewhere. simple reason,i can't find a better home for my cash. re charting, i think it's a useful tool but only in conjunction with sound fundamentals, d.d.and all. i think most on here know we are only at the start of a long and exciting/profitable journey.glta
@staffy, to be honest I'm struggling with my strategy on this one. The high chance of success has thrown a bit of a curveball for me.
Also the credibility of the new BoD is on the line. Buffalo will have been carefully chosen as a flagship starter project for ADV and will very likely succeed in some form or another.
@noeasy, i know, but it's a nice problem to have.i think double to-days s.p. things just might be alittle clearer.(or not) .by then we might just know what their next project will be! cat amongst the pigeons and all.gl staff.
@saint tropez, succintly put, in a nutshell you might say. iwouldn't fancy trading this stock for fear of a sudden swing north. which could happen at any time.gl staff.
well, the pull back has made a bit more room against the RSI which is all to the good. Just have to wait and see tomorrow if it goes up from here on retraces a bit further.
(I imagine there are a number of face palms now as I have just confidently stated the SP could go up or down tomorrow....)
Usually investors pre drill result de-risk a lot or exit fully when the CoS are low and the share upside limited, but as the Buffalo CoS are so high, and the upside vs our mcap so great, the de-risking will be much less than usual, add the fact that the volume is going up , as we attract as usual more interest getting closer to spud, the rest of Q4 will be fun.
Pretty sure last time I readup on it an RSI above 70 means the SP has a higher probability of a pullback, not that it definitely will. Rising stocks can stay in the 'overbought' zone for a long time.
@ShareInvestment
My expectations of price before results has been about 5-6p and maybe 8-9p after results and before any new news about other agreements.
I do wonder now if there could be more momentum now which could get us over 6p before the results are known. As you say, maybe less early investors selling out with COS @95%.
I have a couple of Pre-IPO investments coming to market next month (SpecX and Tech Minerals). If these do well, then that will give me flexibility to not take profits before the results. There’s a good chance of exceeding the expectations and, add to that the oil price, the 12.6p could be noticeably higher. Just my opinion.
Ontarget, the RSi can be interpreted how the individual wants, but the band width to increase the odds of making the correct decision tends to be 20-80, rather than 30-70, in my experience.
Although its true to say "Rising stocks can stay in the 'overbought' zone for a long time." in reality its very rare.
And by rare I mean once a stock is 80 or above on the RSI its within 1 or 2 trading sessions before it unwinds.
If you use your bandwidth of 70 as a cue to a stock being over-bought then yes , maybe you are correct , but that's only because I don't see 70 as a reliable indictor of a stock being over-bought in the first place.
Cheers
Depends on what you've set the period to as well i.e. is it the default 14 periods or shorter/longer?
What time interval do you use Wyndham?
Wyndrum. .sorry predictive text
Hi Girlie,
I use the close of play share price as the time interval. (So daily).
I think the time interval used for looking at the charts and indicators should be relevant to the length of time you are likely to hold the stock.
When I day traded the bond markets back in the day I would have 1 min, 5 min and 15 min charts up with various indicators overlaid. I could short as well as go long and get in and out at any price I wanted so spreads were miniscule.
I do this now as a hobby for a bit of fun, and I have no capacity to short so I only to go long.
The spreads are typically too wide to day trade and fixed stops don't work on shares as if there is a big fall they can go through any stop and get filled much lower down. As a result of all those things I don't try and day trade and now look to anywhere from a few days to more recently several weeks for targets to be achieved. (I am in less of a rush these days!)
So, because I am looking over several days or more I use a daily close time interval.
And as Jez said earlier its a newbie thing to use as many indicators as possible when starting but over time you find out what seems to work best for you and keeping it as simple as possible seems to work pretty well for me and the RSI is my fav and only indicator (along with support and resistance levels) that I will make decisions on.
So for me it just helps time my entry and exit.
People who don't use charts (which is fair enough) tend to dismiss getting in a penny or two lower but these few pence here and there that translate to a % or two more profit than maybe would have been achieved by just buying when you felt like it, tend to add up over the months and years.
Its not for everyone but it seems to work for me. ATB